Analyzing Antonio Conte's First Two Months as Italy Coach

On Tuesday, Antonio Conte will have been in charge of Italy for two months and one week.  In those nine weeks, he has engendered hot debate and optimism in equal measure.

Faced with the monumental task of rebuilding the Azzurri after yet another World Cup disappointment, Conte has responded by showing plenty of backbone.  He has excluded the talented but mercurial striker Mario Balotelli from both of his teams so far.  He has given chances to young players (Simone Zaza), overlooked players (Graziano Pelle) and players on whom most had given up (Sebastian Giovinco, Emanuele Giaccherini).

It's clear that Conte is trying to build this team in his image.  We've seen hallmarks of his successful Juve teams in his setup, but we've also seen some of those teams' faults as well.

It's still early in his tenure, but today we will take a deep look at Conte's Italy and see what has gone right and what decisions he may have to make in the months ahead.

Conte's Juve teams were famous for their winning mentality.  They came at opponents right from the start.  When times got tough, they gritted their teeth and more often than not rescued the situation.

That mentality has already been seen with the Azzurri.  The beginning of Conte's first game—a September friendly against the Netherlands—was a sight to behold.  The men in blue flew across the field, pressing hard and never letting the Dutch—whose starting XI was almost at full strength—have a moment's peace on the ball.

We saw the flip side during October's international break.  Italy endured two difficult matches against Azerbaijan and Malta but dug in and managed to take all three points.

Against Azerbaijan in particular the Italians displayed the sort of "grinta" (grit) that won Juve all three points.  It was displayed—appropriately—by Giorgio Chiellini, one of the talismans of that Juve side.  After the defender bundled the equalizer into his own net with an ugly own goal, he picked himself back up, went to the other end of the field and tucked Sebastian Giovinco's cross home for the winner.

The kind of passion and commitment seen so far under Conte is leaps and bounds ahead of what was often seen under his predecessor, Cesare Prandelli.  Often enough Prandelli's squads showed less intensity in competitive matches than Conte's did in the Netherlands friendly.

Conte knows only one speed—go for the win.  That mentality has started rubbing off on the players.  What's important now is keeping that mentality going forward.

Conte was criticized—somewhat unfairly—for tactical inflexibility during his last season at Juventus.  While it's true he clung to the 3-5-2 with which Juve dominated Italy, it had more to do with the fact that the system fit his players better than any other.

That Conte started his Azzurri tenure in a 3-5-2 was not a surprise.  It's something he's had success with for three years and was a useful placeholder while Conte figured out how he might make use of Italy's player pool.

It worked very well against the Netherlands and Norway in September.  The October qualifiers were tougher tests, and Conte did make some tweaks as the games went on.  After Azerbaijan's equalizer, he sent Sebastian Giovinco on for Alessandro Florenzi and turned the formation into a 3-4-3.  Giovinco turned in a lively performance and assisted on Chiellini's winning goal.

Against Malta, Conte made the interesting move of playing Matteo Darmian in the back three.  Apparently convinced two men could deal with any Maltese counters until help arrived, Destro basically served as an extra wing-back on the right side along with Antonio Candreva, with whom he combined very well at the World Cup.

The decision to place Candreva at the wing-back position displayed mixed results.  The gamble of playing a system which, given how far up the field Darmian usually was placed was essentially a two-man defense, may have contributed to Leonardo Bonucci's red card by stranding him on a counterattack.  After that red, any semblance of Conte's original tactics went out the window, and he had to improvise to see the game out in a 10-on-10 situation.

Bonucci's red will give Conte an interesting tactical question when he faces Croatia next month.  With Juve's Andrea Barzagli out, Chiellini will be the only center-back available with extensive experience in Juve's system.  Davide Astori and Andrea Ranocchia have made serious errors in Conte's back three.  Angelo Ogbonna has finally started growing into the system in Turin, but will Conte take the risk?

The best option may be to return to a four-man system—something Conte did with success at Juve and at his lower-level stops.  He has good options at full-back in Darmian, Mattia De Sciglio and Manuel Pasqual.  He could bring on some younger players like Domenico Berardi—who has been needed at the U21 level—to play on the wing opposite Giovinco, who thrived in wide areas two weeks ago.

There's a tight margin of error here.  While there are some signs that the tactical setup could use some changes, Conte can't tinker to the point that the team ends up devoid of an identity.  That failing ultimately led to Prandelli's downfall.

It may be better for Conte to use the 3-5-2 as a base and make adjustments within that framework, adding in one four-man defensive variant as a plan B.  How he will do that—and with what level of success—remains to be seen.

By style, we're talking about winning and looking good while doing it.  Points are, of course, more important than style at the end of the day, but in Conte's case style is an important factor.

Like his predecessor, Conte has arrived at Coverciano not only needing to win games but to make Italian fans fall in love with the Azzurri again.

Prandelli arrived after the debacle in South Africa had revolted Italy's soccer fans.  He revolutionized the national team, producing four years of great results and a lot of hope.  But the last 180 minutes of the World Cup killed that hope and, just as the debacle of 2010 did, turned the country against its own squad.

That's why Conte's first two matches—particularly the dominant performance against the Netherlands—were so important.  The impressive win got people talking about the Azzurri for the right reasons and reignited the country's excitement for the team.  The game against Norway wasn't as incredible, but it was still a good win in a tricky away tie.

The October games were the polar opposite—two messy wins against lower-tier opposition that really shouldn't have been as close.  The ugly results caused consternation in the media and had fans wondering as to the identity of the real Italy.

Conte has never particularly cared about style points—his Juve teams knew how to win ugly.  But to woo back the fans that have been so disheartened over the last eight years, he may have to go beyond the points and do what he can to win pretty.

The question has raged both times Conte has had to pick a squad: Will Mario Balotelli wear the Savoy blue again?

So far, the answer has been no.

With good reason, it must be said.  Regardless of whatever may be going on in his head, Balotelli has been terrible since his move from AC Milan to Liverpool.  He simply hasn't deserved a place in the side.

His absence has also allowed Conte to pick some exciting outsiders.  Simone Zaza exploded onto the scene in the September fixtures.  Graziano Pelle scored on his debut against Malta.  Last season's Capocannoniere, Ciro Immobile, has started all four of Conte's games.  Dangerous young Roma striker Mattia Destro has seen minutes, and a finally healthy Stephan El Shaarawy has been called up as well.

Conte has gone with experience in defense and the midfield with his first two squads, but he has so far taken advantage of a bumper crop of young forward talent.  The scary part is that he hasn't even begun to harvest that crop yet.

Apart from Immobile, El Shaarawy, Destro and Zaza, young players like Samuele Longo, Federico Bernardeschi and Domenico Berardi are all waiting in the wings.  Those youngsters haven't been called up yet in part because they played important roles in the U21 team that just qualified for the U21 Euros next summer.  But with the qualification playoffs concluded, they could play their way onto the senior squad for Croatia next month.

If Conte continues to use the exciting young attacking talent available to him combined with a veteran core behind them, Italy could become a very dangerous side indeed.

Andrea Pirlo was going to retire after the World Cup.  But Italy's group-stage crash-out left a bitter taste in his mouth, and Pirlo didn't even wait until the team plane touched down in Rome before announcing that he would be available for Euro 2016 qualifying.

Pirlo's reversal puts Conte in a tricky situation, one that blends questions of tactics and team selection.

On one hand, Pirlo is one of the greatest Italians ever to kick a ball, and his exquisite passing abilities have not yet deserted him.  On the other, he's 35 years old.  He doesn't have the pace he used to have and needs to be managed carefully to avoid overuse.

Add to that the fact that 21-year-old Marco Verratti had stood ready at the end of the World Cup to slot in as his successor, and Conte is going to have decisions to make with regards to how he uses L'Architetto.

At his age, Pirlo can only be successful if he has room to operate.  If a team decides to man-mark him, the Azzurri lose their creative force.  He was marked out of the game in just this manner against Azerbaijan.  The Italians compensated by moving Leonardo Bonucci—who may be the world's best ball-playing center-back—forward and letting him bring the ball into advanced areas.  Stlll, without Pirlo operating at full capacity the Italian attack lost something.

Space can be created for Pirlo in two ways.  The first is to have one of his midfield partners protect him.  This can come in the form of a destroyer like Daniele De Rossi or a top-line box-to-box threat like Arturo Vidal.  The former has kept Pirlo clean for much of his career, but the latter was unavailable two weeks ago due to injury.  Claudio Marchisio and Alessandro Florenzi couldn't generate enough of a threat to keep Azerbaijan from putting a man on him.

The other way is to give an opponent another passing threat to think about.  How would Conte do this?  By playing another regista alongside him.

Cesare Prandelli was roundly criticized when Luxembourg managed a 1-1 draw against the Italians in their last World Cup tuneup, but the match was significant because it saw Pirlo and Verratti play together for the first time.  More importantly, it was discovered that they could complement rather than hamper each other.

The impact of this discovery was huge.  With both men on the field and effective, the tactic of man-marking becomes useless.  If opponents choose to attack one, the other will slice through the defense.  That would force them to play straight-up—and for most teams that means waiting to see which of the two would kill them first.

There are cons to Pirlo being on the field.  As seen against Azerbaijan, the tempo of the game and the rate of the team's defensive pressing dropped while the maestro was on the field.  Pirlo has never been the best defender, and the other midfielders will have to increase their defensive work rate to compensate.

All in all, this could be the biggest question Conte faces over the course of qualifying.  If he makes the wrong decision in deploying the aging star, it could have harsh repercussions.