Orange Bowl 2014: Preview, Predictions for Mississippi State vs. Georgia Tech

For all the debate stirred up after the College Football Playoff selection committee tabbed its Top Four, the Orange Bowl features a matchup that's relatively controversy-free.

Two 10-win teams will do battle, with Georgia Tech and Mississippi State squaring off in Miami. 

For all the glitz and glamor of South Beach, New Year's Day will likely be a slugfest. That's what happens when you pair two top 25 rushing attacks, with both Dan Mullen and Paul Johnson building their programs around the power game. 

For Georgia Tech, that means Johnson's triple-option. After four straight seasons of averaging seven wins, the Yellow Jackets took a big step forward in 2014.

While it wasn't enough to pull off the upset of defending national champion Florida State in the ACC title game, the 10-win season earned Johnson a four-year contract extension and a bowl berth that's among the most envious of the non-playoff games.

In Starkville, Mullen's sixth season was finally Mississippi State's breakthrough in the SEC. While the Bulldogs faded down the stretch, the 10-win season put Mullen's program on the map after spending much of the past in the cellar of the SEC.  

Let's get you ready for the Capital One Orange Bowl.

Date: Wednesday, December 31

Time: 8 p.m. ET

Place: Sun Life Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida

TV: ESPN

Radio: ESPN Radio

Point Spread: Mississippi State by 7, according to Odds Shark

Mississippi State's No. 1-ranked red-zone defense will be put to the test by Georgia Tech's option attack. The Yellow Jackets score touchdowns on over 68 percent of their appearances inside opponents' 20-yard lines, while the Bulldogs are the nation's best at limiting scores.

The other big battle will be Paul Johnson's option against Mississippi State's run defense. It's good versus good in a key battle that'll determine whether the Yellow Jackets will be able to get their option offense running at maximum efficiency.

Be Efficient on Offense

Playing against Paul Johnson's offense means the Bulldogs will have limited possessions to score their points. While that didn't bother Dak Prescott early in the season, Mississippi State's offense slowed down in November, held in check by Arkansas, Alabama and Ole Miss. 

While Georgia Tech doesn't play defense like those three SEC opponents, the Yellow Jackets' offensive game plan will make it important for Prescott and the Bulldogs to score when they get their chances. 

That means cashing in their scoring opportunities once they get to the red zone. While the Bulldogs defense is an elite unit inside the 20-yard line, the offense ranks just 74th in the country in scoring.

Mississippi State does a little bit better job getting touchdowns (43rd at just over 65 percent). When given the chance to get points, the Bulldogs have to score. 

Stop the Option

There's no assignment easier to type but harder to execute. Geoff Collins' defense is in for a challenge unlike any other it has faced, tasked with stopping Johnson's option attack.

Georgia Tech averaged nearly six yards a carry this season, running for 333 yards a game and 41 touchdowns. It has also done a good job holding on to the football, with the Yellow Jackets ranked 15th in the country in turnover margin. 

Collins earned his "Minister of Mayhem" nickname for coordinating a defense that's constantly in attack mode. He'll have three weeks to adjust that scheme for an option attack that can exploit aggression if it leads to blown assignments. 

Get the Option Attack Rolling

There is no Option B for Paul Johnson's offense. The Yellow Jackets need to move the football on the ground and do so against one of the most physically impressive units in the country. 

That means Georgia Tech quarterback Justin Thomas needs to play one of his best games of the season. And he'll need help on the ground from Zach Laskey and Synjyn Days.

The veteran running backs join with Thomas to form a three-headed monster. You may stop one, but you can't stop them all. Against Florida State, Thomas gained 104 yards on just 11 carries, while Days hammered home three touchdowns. 

The running attack will also open up the passing game. The Yellow Jackets' leading wide receiver DeAndre Smelter suffered a torn ACL against Georgia, robbing Tech of its best receiver.

That leaves only senior Darren Waller with more than 20 catches. Waller caught five balls for 73 yards and a touchdown against the Seminoles, and he will likely face single coverage when Thomas puts the ball in the air. 

But it all starts with the run game. 

Force Dak Prescott to Make Some Mistakes

Prescott burst onto the scene with a monster September as a dual-threat quarterback being compared to Tim Tebow, one of Dan Mullen's former pupils.

Capable of throwing and running, Prescott put up 2,996 yards and 24 touchdowns in the air while running for over 100 yards four times, scoring 13 touchdowns on 939 total rushing yards. 

But Prescott made some mistakes in big games. He threw two interceptions against Auburn to take away from an otherwise heroic effort, and he threw three more against Alabama in the Bulldogs' 25-20 loss in Tuscaloosa.

Held in check on the ground against Ole Miss, the second half of the season saw Prescott cool off and make some uncharacteristic mistakes. 

That's what the Yellow Jackets hope will happen in Miami. Georgia Tech's defense might struggle to stop the Bulldogs, but it should have some chances to force turnovers. Ted Roof's unit forced 27 turnovers this season, good for 16th in the country. 

Physically, the matchup won't be easy. But taking the ball away and riding their running offense will be the Yellow Jackets' recipe for success. 

Dak Prescott

Prescott was one of the breakout players in college football this season. Sure to go over 4,000 yards of total offense in the Orange Bowl, Prescott and Mullen have brought back shades of the old Tim Tebow Florida offense with Prescott behind center.

At 6'2", 230 pounds, Prescott is the perfect dual-threat quarterback, a competent passer and power runner built into one. Mullen won't hesitate to put the offensive game into Prescott's hands, willing to ride his quarterback as a runner or passer. 

Yes, turnovers crept up down the stretch. But Prescott will have a month to prepare for the final game of his junior season before making the decision whether to head to the NFL or return for another Heisman Trophy run. 

Preston Smith

Smith is a monster on the edge of Mississippi State's defense. His 14.5 tackles for loss and nine sacks lead the Bulldogs defense.

While he won't get too many opportunities to hit double-digit sacks on the season, he'll have plenty of chances to hit opposing quarterback Justin Thomas. 

Smith has the type of length that will translate well at the next level. But at 6'6", he's a large target for the chop blocks Georgia Tech's offensive line deploys as part of its triple-option attack.

Smith will need to shed blocks and win at the point of attack—something he's done for much of the season. He's capable of playing anywhere on a front line that will have different marching orders this week from Geoff Collins.

Justin Thomas

Thomas enters the Orange Bowl looking like a good bet to crack 1,000 rushing yards on the season, giving him a chance to be just the second Yellow Jacket quarterback to ever do so.

In his first season as a starter, the redshirt sophomore has proven to be a capable trigger man for Paul Johnson's option attack, throwing 17 touchdown passes and just five interceptions. 

But Thomas will face his stiffest challenge of the season against the Bulldogs defense. With the Yellow Jackets going strength-versus-strength in the trenches, Mississippi State's ability to take a month to prepare for the option could force more responsibility onto the plate of the young quarterback. 

That means throwing the football, something Thomas did only 175 times in the regular season. It also means cracking the Bulldogs code in the red zone, where Mississippi State is the stingiest team in the country.  

P.J. Davis

Georgia Tech's leading tackler is going to need to bring his hard hat to Miami. Mississippi State's offensive line is likely licking its chops, with the Yellow Jackets allowing 5.1 yards per carry this season.

That'll put Davis in position to go head-to-head with Prescott—the linebacker giving up nearly 15 pounds on the quarterback. Davis' game is athleticism and speed. He'll need to be ready to not just track down Prescott and 1,100-yard rusher Josh Robinson, but to hold the point of attack.

Georgia Tech coach Paul Johnson expressed respect for the Bulldogs, according to an Associated Press report:

"Everybody knows about Dak Prescott and what he's done. I know that they were ranked No. 1 in the country for about three or four weeks there. Tremendous team, some outstanding individual players and a lot of respect for what they've done there." 

Mullen stated his pleasure of being selected for the Orange Bowl, per the AP:

Mississippi State athletic director Scott Stricklin, talking about an upcoming contract extension for Mullen:

"We want to make sure we reward Dan for what he's done and also continue to invest going forward not only in him but his whole staff. I think we'll be in position to do that. We've had productive conversations, and I'm hopeful we'll get that wrapped up."

While Georgia Tech made a great leap forward this season after being stuck in neutral, the Yellow Jackets got a tough draw, with Mississippi State leaping over Michigan State in the selection committee's final rankings.

That puts the ACC's second-best team up against an SEC opponent that held the No. 1 ranking for a significant amount of time this season. 

That's not to say it's been all pretty for the Bulldogs. And as long as Jim Harbaugh is coaching in the NFL, Mullen will likely have the open Michigan head coaching job serving as a distraction. 

But Mississippi State has too much going for it in both the trenches and at the quarterback position. With weeks to prepare for the triple-option, this will ultimately be a big SEC victory in one of the country's top non-playoff bowl games.

Final Score: Mississippi State 34, Georgia Tech 24