Arizona Basketball: What Wildcats Must Do to Be a No. 1 Seed in 2015 Tournament

Arizona Basketball: What Wildcats Must Do to Be a No. 1 Seed in 2015 Tournament
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1Spread the Floor Offensively
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2Push the Pace of Games
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3Stay out of Foul Trouble
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4Free Throws, Free Throws, Free Throws
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5Win on the Road
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Arizona Basketball: What Wildcats Must Do to Be a No. 1 Seed in 2015 Tournament

Jan 6, 2015

Arizona Basketball: What Wildcats Must Do to Be a No. 1 Seed in 2015 Tournament

Things have gone well for Arizona so far this season, but it will take a major effort to once again get a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament in March.

The Wildcats have started the year 13-1, including a dominant win over Arizona State in the only conference game to this point. They have one of the best team defenses in the nation, while elite players at each position are capable of putting up big offensive numbers in each game.

However, the competition at the top will be tougher than usual this year.

Kentucky remains undefeated and won't see too many challengers in the SEC. Wisconsin should be able to dominate the Big Ten. One of Duke, Virginia and Louisville seem likely to make it out of the ACC with a pretty good profile. This doesn't even include Gonzaga, Villanova or anyone else from the Big 12 that could finish with a great record.

As a result, Arizona will have to be almost perfect to make it out of the Pac-12 with one of the best resumes in the nation. The squad certainly has a lot of talent and is close to an elite team, but there are still a few issues that need to be improved going forward.

Here is a breakdown of the most important factors that will help give the Wildcats a No. 1 seed.

Spread the Floor Offensively

The strength of Arizona is its ability to score in the paint, but that doesn't mean every shot has to come close to the basket. In fact, the offense can be more effective by changing things up and spreading out.

So far this season, the Wildcats rank third in the Pac-12 with a 38 percent mark from three-point range. However, only Colorado averages fewer than their 14.6 attempts per game from beyond the arc.

It's important not to force shots when they aren't there, but Arizona has a handful of players who are quality shooters whenever they are on the floor.

Stanley Johnson, Brandon Ashley and Elliott Pitts combine to shoot an incredible 47.6 percent from deep. Gabe York has been a bit inconsistent this season, but he is arguably the best long-range shooter on the team. T.J. McConnell and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson have struggled in this respect but still can knock a shot down when needed.

With this much perimeter talent, Arizona has to be able to keep defenders honest by shooting more from long range. This will not only lead to more points on offense per possession, but it will open things up in the low post.

All of a sudden, Ashley, Hollis-Jefferson and Kaleb Tarczewski will have plenty of space in the paint and will be able to dominate their one-on-one matchups.

Push the Pace of Games

Unlike most Sean Miller teams, Arizona has used a relatively quick tempo this season, averaging 68.3 possessions per game according to KenPom.com. This is easily within the top quarter of college basketball teams this season.

For a team that sometimes struggles in the half-court offense, this is a perfect strategy to get out on the run and score in transition before the opponent has a chance to set up. Arizona has an extremely athletic roster, and it would be smart to keep using this to its advantage.

Although this sometimes leads to struggles defensively, the Wildcats are good enough to make up for this with solid on-ball play all over the court.

The problem is that not everyone in the Pac-12 is going to let them play their style of basketball. Arguably the two biggest challengers for the conference title—Utah and Stanford—like to slow down the pace and play a more methodical game. Colorado also plays games at a snail's pace and could be a sleeper in this conference.

If Arizona can't push the tempo against these opponents, the result will likely be a low-scoring loss. The squad has to be able to play its own game and impose its will on others.

Stay out of Foul Trouble

As much talent as there is on this team, Arizona doesn't utilize the deepest lineup. The rotation is usually limited to nine players, with only six of them getting more than 15 minutes per game.

This is why it is so important for the top players to stay in the game as much as possible.

Unfortunately, this has been a problem for some of the frontcourt, especially Kaleb Tarczewski. The 7'0" center is an anchor defensively, but he is averaging 3.1 fouls per game. This is up from 2.6 in more minutes a year ago, and it has led to fouling out in three games already this year.

When he comes out, freshman Dusan Ristic is expected to take over in the middle. However, the fellow 7-footer is even worse with 5.6 fouls per 40 minutes.

Neither player is an elite shot-blocker, but their presence inside forces opponents to adjust their shots. It is a major reason why opposing squads have only hit 42.3 percent of two-point shots this year.

On the other hand, unnecessary fouls lead to easy points at the free-throw line and, eventually, easy layups when the centers are out of the game.

With many Pac-12 games likely coming down to just a few possessions, Tarczewski and others have to make sure they avoid fouls when possible.

Free Throws, Free Throws, Free Throws

Whether it was the opposing crowd, nerves or simply bad luck, Arizona was at its worst at the free-throw line during its two-game road trip before the start of conference play.

The Wildcats shot just 15-of-26 in the narrow win over UTEP before making 16-of-27 against UNLV. This is way too many free points to leave on the table.

Of course, the squad has been pretty poor in this area all year long. Arizona has hit 65.9 percent of shots from the charity stripe, ranking just 251st in the nation. This also isn't even a case of one person bringing the overall numbers down, as only Gabe York has hit more than 70 percent of attempts this year.

You would expect more from guards like Stanley Johnson or T.J. McConnell, while both Brandon Ashley and Kaleb Tarczewski were better last season.

No matter the reason, though, Arizona has to pick up its shooting if it wants to consistently win games against top teams this season. Fans only have to look back to last season to see battles lost due to missed opportunities from the line.

If things don't pick up in this area, there will be more losses in winnable games.

Win on the Road

This sounds like a simple concept, but Arizona has struggled in its two true road games this season.

While the Wildcats pulled out a five-point win over UTEP, they weren't as fortunate four days later at UNLV. The team seemed clueless offensively for much of the two games, turning the ball over a combined 32 times.

Even with four upperclassmen starters, the players appeared uncomfortable in a tough environment. This is not good because things will get even worse in the Pac-12.

The key for this team is to figure out which player or players are going to step up in big moments to carry the squad to victory. Nick Johnson was the man last year, but there seems to be too much indecision on the current squad about who takes the shots late.

Championship-level teams have someone who can put his teammates on his back when things start to go wrong. 

Stanley Johnson has been the leading scorer this season, but sometimes this responsibility is too big for a freshman. T.J. McConnell is the veteran leader of the squad and scored all six of the team's points in overtime against Gonzaga, although he is rarely counted on to be a scorer.

Whether it is one of these players or not, the Wildcats won't be able to pull out close games away from home unless someone steps up to the challenge.

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