5 Reasons Why England Will Not Win the Six Nations

The time has nearly come for Chris Robshaw’s England to make good on the promise they made to each other at the end of the 2014 Six Nations.

Robshaw revealed, per the The Independent, the players had made a pact with each other as they stood on the Stadio Olimpico turf at the end of last season’s campaign, that 2015 would be their year. Undone in 2014 by a late try in Paris on opening weekend, England won their four following games, but couldn’t pip Ireland to the title.

In a way, it was less heartbreaking than the 2013 final day demolition that crushed their Grand Slam hopes in Cardiff, but it has left this England generation in danger of earning the "nearly men" tag in this tournament.

The same was true of Clive Woodward’s teams in the booby trap-laden years preceding 2003.

Titles were won, but Grand Slams went begging at Wembley, in Dublin, Paris and Edinburgh, until they finally pulled it all together to claim a clean sweep before, well, you know what happened later that year.

The parallels may be encouraging to this England cohort that they can do the same before advancing to the bigger prize in the autumn.

But lightning will not be striking twice. Never mind the Grand Slam.

England will not win this year’s Six Nations. Here is why.

The fixtures have not been kind to England this season.

Where last season they toppled Ireland and Wales at Twickenham, they have to beat both on their own patches this year. That isn’t something they have managed for 12 years.

Ireland’s provincial sides have not been all-conquering so far this season, with only Leinster progressing in the Champions Cup.

However, Joe Schmidt has taken the national side to No. 3 in the world in the last 12 months, and confidence will be high in Dublin after wins there over Australia and South Africa.

Wales got the monkey off their back in the autumn when they beat South Africa in Cardiff, and England need no reminding of what happened last time they pitched up in the Welsh capital.

Poor in last year’s championship, Wales have few injury worries and could be contenders this season.

Stuart Lancaster will start the championship without his first choice second row pairing in Courtney Lawes and Joe Launchbury.

Meanwhile, Manu Tuilagi’s absence for the start—and possibly all­—of the tournament continues to rob England of the one man there seems to be a consensus on for one of the midfield spots.

While depth in their forward resources should see England’s pack retain its power, the work around the field of Launchbury in particular is hard to replicate. Remember his tap tackle on Rob Kearney at Twickenham last year?

Ben Morgan’s broken leg weakens the impact of the Red Rose bench, too. Nick Easter has had a fine season so far for Harlequins, but if he is back up to Billy Vunipola, he won’t offer the same gain-line breaking presence of Morgan late on.

Some of the men who played out of their skin in last season’s championship have not been hitting those heights this season. Mike Brown was a human dynamo in the 2014 campaign but is not the same player thus far this term.

The same goes for his club colleague Danny Care, who has shown signs recently of a return to somewhere near his high-tempo best.

On the wings, no one—at least no one likely to be picked—is scoring tries regularly for their clubs.

Chris Ashton is, but is in the Saxons squad.

What does Stuart Lancaster do about his hooker?

After barging his way back to first choice for England, Dylan Hartley blotted his copybook with a yellow card that contributed to defeat against the All Blacks in the autumn.

He then threw a nasty elbow during a club game that earned him another suspension.

Lancaster has a decision to make here. Risk his temper to give the team better scrummaging and throwing in, or bench him and use the more level-headed but sometimes wayward Tom Youngs as his stating hooker.

Uncertainty over such a key position is no good thing. Wales and Ireland are both canny enough to try to light the Saints man’s short fuse.

England go into the Championship with questions over who to play at No. 10. Owen Farrell fell from favour in the autumn with George Ford taking his spot.

Ford’s form for Bath suggests he will retain the starting spot when the tournament begins, although in tight games his goal-kicking is still open to question. The debate then centres on the bench.

Owen Farrell would be the obvious back-up, but is there any value in having a less creative No. 10 riding the pine when Danny Cipriani possesses the skill and sense of adventure to make something happen if required?

Let’s take that argument a step further. Cipriani has shown, when his Sale pack get the upper hand, he is deadly going forward.

England’s pack should do nothing but go forward in this championship, giving the former Wasp the ideal platform to cause his own brand of havoc in opposition defences, more than Ford is capable of. The fact is, if he is not chanced we will never know, and he may as well pack his bags for the Top 14.

This is a circular debate to which Lancaster must find a definitive conclusion. Two weeks of training hardly seems adequate to do that. Compare that situation with the other major contenders for the title. France will be barmy if Camille Lopez doesn’t start and stay in the No. 10 shirt.

Ireland will pick Jonny Sexton the moment he is declared fit from his concussion lay-off, with Ian Madigan sure to begin in his stead, per the Irish Independent.

Dan Biggar will start for Wales, albeit under pressure from Gareth Anscombe and Rhys Priestland. There is certainty about starter and back-up men for these teams, but for England there are only questions.