Wisconsin Basketball: Best- and Worst-Case Scenarios for Rest of Badgers' Season

Wisconsin Basketball: Best- and Worst-Case Scenarios for Rest of Badgers' Season
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1Best-Case Scenario: Traevon Jackson Makes Smooth Transition Back to Lineup
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2Best-Case Scenario: Top Teams' Losses Give Wisconsin No. 1 Seed
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3Worst-Case Scenario: Badgers Lose the Big Ten Regular-Season Title
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4Worse-Case Scenario: Star Players Get Injured
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Wisconsin Basketball: Best- and Worst-Case Scenarios for Rest of Badgers' Season

Feb 25, 2015

Wisconsin Basketball: Best- and Worst-Case Scenarios for Rest of Badgers' Season

The Wisconsin Badgers, who seemed to be cruising for most of this season, took a stumble Tuesday with a 59-53 loss on the road to Maryland. And with just three games remaining in the regular season, the ending could play out in a few different ways.

Has the recent loss thrown Wisconsin's top-seed hopes out the window? If so, is the Big Ten regular-season title still safe, or are there a few sleepers poised to snatch that from the Badgers? 

Plus the return of senior guard Traevon Jackson seems to be just around the corner as well, but what kind of impact can he make once he comes back? And can the rest of the Badgers manage stay healthy?

Let’s take a look at some of the best- and worst-case scenarios for Wisconsin in the remainder of the season.

Best-Case Scenario: Traevon Jackson Makes Smooth Transition Back to Lineup

Traevon Jackson has been out of action since he fractured his foot against Rutgers on Jan. 11, but it seems that there is nothing stopping the Wisconsin senior from making his return this Sunday against Michigan State on Senior Nightat least, he doesn't think so.

“I’m playing on Sunday,” Jackson said, according to Madison.com’s Jim Polzin

Whether or not that will actually happen depends on the Wisconsin medical staff’s decision to clear him, but regardless, it appears that Jackson’s return is just a matter of time.

The 6’2” guard was averaging 9.4 points and 2.9 assists per game for the Badgers prior to his injury. Normally, those numbers would be a bit difficult to reproduce, but sophomore Bronson Koenig has done a fantastic job filling in for Jackson, averaging 12.0 points and shooting 45.6 percent from three-point range in the 11 games he has started since Jackson’s injury. 

The senior guard's transition back into the lineup could be pivotal for the Badgers.

If Jackson starts again, can he play at the level he was playing prior to his injury? What should Bo Ryan do with Koenig? If Jackson comes off the bench, how would that affect his play? 

The ideal situation for Wisconsin would be for Jackson to put up similar if not better numbers to the ones he did before the injury, and for Koenig to continue his hot shooting on the second unit.

If Ryan can find a way to get the most out of both point guards, Wisconsin could utilize another weapon for an already efficient offense.

Best-Case Scenario: Top Teams' Losses Give Wisconsin No. 1 Seed

The general consensus at the moment is that Kentucky, Duke and Virginia will grab three of the four No. 1 seeds for the NCAA tournament, but the debate as to whether Wisconsin or Gonzaga should get the final No. 1 seed has been quite compelling of late. 

In fact, in ESPN Insider Joe Lunardi’s latest bracket prediction, published on Feb. 23, he awarded that spot to the Bulldogs over the Badgers. 

That was before Wisconsin’s loss to Maryland.

Now, the Badgers, who came in this week as the nation’s fifth-ranked team, hold a record of 25-3 with a 6-2 record against top-50 teams, while Gonzaga is 28-1, with a lone loss coming in overtime on the road against Arizona.

Throw in a 26-2 Villanova team, and the strength of Wisconsin’s case is diminishing by the day.

If the Badgers want any chance of getting that final No. 1 seed, they'll need plenty of help from Gonzaga's and Villanova's opponents. But with just three games remaining for each team, the chances don’t seem all that great.

At least there is a chance, though.

Worst-Case Scenario: Badgers Lose the Big Ten Regular-Season Title

Wisconsin had a chance to clinch its first Big Ten regular-season title since 2008 on Tuesday but blew it by losing to second-place Maryland on the road. 

Now, with three games remaining, the Badgers hold a 2.0-game lead on the Terrapins and 2.5-game leads on Michigan State and Purdue.

Translation: Anything can happen.

Let’s take a look at the remaining schedule for each of the four contenders:

Wisconsin: vs. Michigan State (19-8), at Minnesota (16-12) and at Ohio State (19-8)

Maryland: vs. Michigan (14-13), at Rutgers (10-18) and at Nebraska (13-14)

Michigan State: vs. Minnesota (16-12), at Wisconsin (25-3), vs. Purdue (18-9) and at Indiana (19-9)

Purdue: vs. Rutgers (10-18), at Ohio State (19-8), at Michigan State (19-8) and vs. Illinois (17-10)

The Terrapins seems to have the easiest remaining schedule and best chance to catch the Badgers, as they have to face all three teams in the lower half of the Big Ten to make up a two-game deficit.

Meanwhile, Michigan State and Purdue will have to go through each other in order to move up the standings, which should provide some room to breathe for Wisconsin.

However, if the Badgers lose to the Spartans—who recently beat a then-No. 23 Buckeyes—on Sunday, then the gap between these two teams could be reduced to just one game.

What should be pointed out is that losing the regular-season conference title won't prevent the Badgers from entering the NCAA tournament, but blowing the chance to win it could give a huge hit to this team's confidence heading into the postseason.

Are you nervous yet, Wisconsin fans?

Worse-Case Scenario: Star Players Get Injured

This would obviously be a worse-case scenario for any team.

The Badgers have already had to deal with the injury to Jackson but have coped surprisingly well thanks to Bronson Koenig.

However, should Frank Kaminsky or Sam Dekker—knock on wood, Wisconsin fans—suffer serious injuries, there may not be anyone on the Badgers’ bench, let alone any other team's in the country, who could replace the importance of either player. 

Both players had already had respective close calls earlier in the season. Dekker dealt with ankle and hand injuries, while Kaminsky overcame concussion symptoms.

Other players like Nigel Hayes (12.1 PPG and 6.5 RPG) and Koenig cannot afford to miss time either, given the fact that Wisconsin’s bench is not necessarily deep.

Staying healthy is the goal for every team, but with the postseason just around the corner, any significant injuries at this time could be devastating to Wisconsin's aspirations.

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