Maryland Basketball: Best- and Worst-Case Scenarios for Rest of Terps' Season

Maryland has proved doubters wrong all season long, but this doesn't necessarily guarantee success going forward.

The Terrapins are coming off their biggest win of the year, a 59-53 upset over Wisconsin to move to 23-5 overall with an 11-4 record in the Big Ten. Although they haven't always made games look pretty, they have put together an incredible resume full of elite victories and few bad losses.

After failing to make the NCAA tournament over the last four years, this squad appears destined for a high seed in the 2015 event.

That being said, this has been a difficult team to figure out. The past few weeks have been filled with numerous close wins against inferior opponents while the losses haven't even been contests. In a sport as crazy as college basketball, there are a lot of different scenarios that could play out with this team.

Here is a look at the best and worst of what can happen for the rest of the year on both an individual and team level for the Terps.

According to KenPom.com, Wisconsin has the most efficient offense in the nation, even after Tuesday's game. Maryland shut this group down to the tune of just 53 points, the squad's second-lowest scoring output of the season.

This showed what the Terrapins are capable of when they play as a team and everyone remains focused on each play.

The problem is things haven't always been as great in league play. Indiana, Ohio State and Iowa all shots the lights out against Maryland while even teams like Penn State, Northwestern and Nebraska were successful from beyond the arc.

In fact, opponents have shot 35.3 percent from three-point range against the Terps in conference play, which ranks 11th in the Big Ten.

So is it bad luck those other teams shot so well or very good luck Wisconsin was only able to shoot 6-of-22 from outside (including 1-of-11 in the first half) in the recent upset?

Looking at a worst-case scenario, the hot shooting as a result of open looks continues, and Maryland starts to suffer more losses because of it.

Damonte Dodd played seven minutes against Wisconsin, and the only statistical proof he was even there was four fouls and one turnover. This is certainly a game he would like to forget.

Fortunately for the home team, little-used freshman Michal Cekovsky stepped up and played an outstanding game. Not only did he finish with four points and six rebounds; he also played excellent on-ball defense against Frank Kaminsky, causing problems with his height and length at 7'1".

There is no question the Slovakian center is still very raw and capable of making mistakes. Before playing 24 minutes Tuesday, Cekovsky had also only seen the floor in short bursts or blowout losses since the start of Big Ten play. 

Still, you can't deny the impact he had in the team's biggest win of the season. 

Interior defense has been a problem at times this year for the Terps. Although Dodd has a shot-blocker's mentality and has had some success, he is incredibly inconsistent. Cekovsky can take away some minutes from the starting center and help shore up the Maryland defense heading into the postseason.

Dez Wells and Melo Trimble were outstanding in the win against Wisconsin, combining for 42 of the team's 59 points in the win. This isn't too much different than what the tandem has done all season long as one of the best backcourts in the nation.

While fans are free to watch with awe as these players win one-on-one battles with defenders, the teammates shouldn't be doing the same.

Maryland's offense ranks 290th in the nation in assists per game, which means it relies heavily on individual efforts. This is fine when Trimble and Wells are making every shot, but a bad day from one of them could lead to a blowout loss.

Jake Layman has had a strong year, but he tends to disappear in some games while lacking aggressiveness on offense. Meanwhile, players like Richaud Pack, Jared Nickens, Evan Smotrycz and others often make zero impact on that end of the court.

Although having two elite scorers is a good thing, it's important the rest of the team doesn't look at the latest win and assume everything will be great with this strategy. Otherwise, the overreliance on stars will cause things to turn south in a hurry.

It's not a good thing to rely too much on one or two players, but having one person who can step up in the clutch and carry a team when needed is a great recipe for success in March.

Dez Wells came through with one of the best individual performances Maryland has seen since Greivis Vasquez, totaling 26 points, seven rebounds, four assists and a big play seemingly every time the team needed it.

Head coach Mark Turgeon summed up it after the game, saying, per Don Markus of The Baltimore Sun, "Dez Wells was terrific, he was not going to let us lose. He was great defensively, he was great rebounding, he was great scoring. ... Our guys were really determined tonight, starting with Dez Wells."

Melo Trimble might be the team's leading scorer, but Wells has been the emotional leader and someone who has proved himself in big moments throughout the year. He hit a game-tying three-pointer in an eventual road win at Michigan State earlier in the season and also scored the game-winning tip-in in the final seconds against Northwestern.

After the college basketball world saw what Shabazz Napier was able to do for UConn last year, it makes sense for Terps fans to start getting excited watching Wells play at this level.

With the senior's ability to score in just about any situation, he can carry this team to great heights.

Every year there is a team seeded way too high in the NCAA tournament, and the entire nation knows it immediately. The squad is picked as the obvious upset in many brackets, and it ends up being right with some little-known school earning the round of 64 win.

Despite what Maryland has done this year, it remains an easy target heading into March. There is no denying it has already exceeded expectations, and it's possible this will be the chance to fall back to earth.

The Terrapins are currently ranked No. 14 in the nation and will likely climb in the next poll, but KenPom.com rates them at just No. 35 due to middling efficiency numbers on both ends of the court. The close wins over bad teams and the blowout losses away from home could prove to be foreshadowing as the luck finally runs out.

Maryland's inconsistent defense could become an issue in the first round while matched up against an offensive-minded mid-major like Murray State, Davidson or Stephen F. Austin. Without any support from the bench, the favorite gets knocked off like so many high seeds do in March Madness.

Although the first year in the Big Ten would be considered a success, the Terps wouldn't be able to make it out of the first weekend of the NCAA tournament.

Maryland is 9-0 in games decided by six points or fewer, and that isn't luck but skill.

With a composed point guard in Melo Trimble who has no fear to make a shot either from the field or at the free-throw line and a senior playmaker in Dez Wells with a track record of stepping up in big moments, this team has some of the most important ingredients for a successful postseason run.

In a best-case scenario, the Terps avoid upset in the early rounds after surviving against inferior opponents all season (zero losses against teams below 60 in the RPI, per ESPN). In the second weekend, they use their confidence from past success against top opponents and keep it going with some bigger wins.

And even without the bracket doing them any favors, Jake Layman uses his versatile game to create a formidable trio with Trimble and Wells in an unstoppable attack while the defense plays to its potential to slow things down on the other end.

Aside from Kentucky, most of the top teams in the nation have shown some vulnerability at times this year. Maryland could find a way to expose it with a run to the Final Four for the first time since 2002.

Follow Rob Goldberg on Twitter to talk Maryland basketball or anything else in sports.