Canelo Alvarez vs. James Kirkland: Preview and Prediction for Upcoming Bout

Seven days after the biggest boxing weekend in a generation, the sport's most popular young star, Saul Alvarez, returns to action against the hard-punching James Kirkland. Expect an old-fashioned shootout in Texas come Saturday night. You can view it on HBO at 9 ET.

Canelo was originally schedule to fight last weekend but moved his date back to accommodate the Floyd Mayweather Jr.-Manny Pacquiao superfight. But this one will hardly be less important for the delay. 

Kirkland has been an exciting fighter who has yet to live up to his full potential and is now looking at 30 in his rearview mirror. He won't see another opportunity this big if he doesn't take advantage of it. 

Alvarez always comes to the ring planning to put on a show. This could be a Fight of the Year. 

Canelo Alvarez turned professional at age 15 and is extremely experienced for a fighter of 24. He's fought 46 fights and 311 rounds. In the past few years, he's also faced the best in the sport in his division. 

Alvarez and James Kirkland are almost exactly the same size. Both men are very big, powerful junior middleweights, so I expect each of them to take advantage of the extra pound over the normal 154-pound limit. 

It's hard to believe Saul Alvarez is just 24. Canelo turned professional at 15 and was already very much on the boxing radar a half-decade ago. 

Like almost all very popular prizefighters, Alvarez tends to get overrated and underrated at the same time. His popularity has outstripped the amount of talent he has shown in the ring. But it's also unfair to dismiss what he has accomplished or slur him as an overprotected hype job. 

In his past four fights, Alvarez has faced three fighters, Austin Trout, Floyd Mayweather and Erislandy Lara, who were top five in his division. His other opponent, Alfredo Angulo, was arguably top 10 at the time they fought.

There isn't another fighter under 25 who has faced such stiff competition. In 2012, Alvarez was set to battle Paul Williams, an extremely experienced and difficult former champion. That fight fell through due to William's motorcycle accident.

I don't view Alvarez as a guy who will rank in the top 50 pound-for-pound stars of all time. But he is one of the most exciting warriors in the sport today. He's gone after the best fights available and has improved each year, which shows that he continues to put in his time in the gym despite becoming a major star.

James Kirkland is knockout artist and was once viewed as among the sport's most exciting rising stars. But legal problems, injuries and disputes with promoters have all contributed to his stalling career.

He's been extremely inactive in recent years and didn't step into a professional ring at all in 2014. He did look very tough in his December 2013 TKO win over the previously undefeated Glen Tapia. 

At the very least, he should be an opponent who will make for a very exciting fight with Canelo. If he comes into this fight fully prepared and focused, it could be a terrific battle.

Kirkland will never again get a bigger opportunity than this one, at least not if he doesn't take full advantage of it.   

Saul Alvarez is a skilled boxer-puncher who has continued to improve in his most recent fights. He throws a very good lead hook to the body and uses it to set up his big punches upstairs. 

He is very much an offensive fighter but does mix in head movement and is a dangerous counterpuncher at middle range. He's still at the point in his career where he is evolving, so it's hard for an opponent to know exactly what wrinkles the red-headed star will show. 

James Kirkland is an athletic and explosive puncher. In the past decade, he has been one of the hardest pound-for-pound sluggers in the sport. 

Traditionally, Kirkland has been a well-conditioned and busy fighter who mixes up his punch selection and attacks well with both hands. 

Saul Alvarez definitely has trouble with opponents who move very well, though that is not likely to be an issue against Kirkland. Alvarez has not faced a puncher like Kirkland, so this fight will test his chin like never before. 

James Kirkland came back from nearly being stopped to win a thrilling Round 6 TKO over Alfredo Angulo in November 2011. But in April of that year, the relatively light-hitting Nobuhiro Ishida blasted the American in Round 1, so it's hard not to question Kirkland's chin.

An even bigger question about Kirkland is his mental state. Few high-profile fighters have had more stops and starts than Kirkland. He's always been at his best mentally when training with former female champion Ann Wolfe. He's not with Wolfe for this fight. 

A common bit of boxing wisdom is to "brawl with a boxer and box a brawler." Saul Alvarez needs to box James Kirkland. 

That's going to mean using a busy jab to keep Kirkland at middle range, where Canelo will have the room he needs to slip punches and counter. 

As with any orthodox-southpaw matchup, lead foot positioning will be particularly important. If Alvarez can keep his lead left foot to the outside of Kirkland's lead right, he should be able dig his lead left hook into Kirkland's body and scorch him straight down the middle with the right cross. 

Alvarez is going to need to be prepared to work hard in the clinch. Kirkland is a rugged customer and will look to maul Canelo inside and work out of the clinch position to land heavy compact left hands and right hooks. 

So Alvarez is going to need to be alert and on the defensive on the inside. 

If Canelo can avoid getting caught with too many big punches, he should be able to win this fight by boxing shrewdly and picking his spots to score with his own power shots. 

James Kirkland needs to make this an ugly, rough brawl. That's going to require him to be able to maintain a relentless pace, so the No. 1 question in front of Kirkland after more than a year of being inactive is whether he's going to be in true fighting condition. 

Assuming that he is, he has the tools to make this a true battle. If he can work his way inside and force Alvarez to brawl with him, the fight turns into a pick 'em affair. Kirkland is a ferocious puncher and can turn a fight on its ear with a single compact left hand or explosive combination. 

As the southpaw, Kirkland is going to need to position his lead right foot outside of Canelo's lead left foot, or else he'll eat hard straight rights from the red-headed star. When Canelo tries to clinch him on the inside, Kirkland has to try to keep at least one arm free so that the referee will give him the chance to work out of the clinch rather than breaking clean. 

If Kirkland can muscle Alvarez on the inside, it will give him the opportunity to set up some nasty short punches. 

This fight has been getting a lot less attention than it normally would due to the justifiable hype that surrounded the Floyd Mayweather-Manny Pacquiao superfight. But now, with that fight in the rearview mirror, at least a portion of serious boxing fans will anxiously be turning their eyes to Houston this weekend to watch this potential blockbuster between Saul Alvarez and James Kirkland. 

I hope we see the best possible James Kirkland for this contest. If we do, this fight will be one of the biggest of the year. It will be a potential Fight of the Year. It might even help rewrite the rankings in the junior middleweight and middleweight divisions. 

If Kirkland is not at his best, it still has the potential to be an exciting showcase for the sport's biggest young star. 

Ultimately, we'll see a very good fight, with Kirkland turning in a respectable effort. But Alvarez is going to be too good of a boxer for Kirkland and physically strong enough to stand up to Kirkland's bullying tactics. 

As the fight goes on, Alvarez will take firmer control of things. I think he wins by stoppage in Round 8. 

The next step for Alvarez should be interesting. He tried hard at the end of last year and the beginning of this year to make a superfight with Miguel Cotto. I still can't understand why that didn't happen. 

Canelo has shown a strong desire to make the biggest fights he can. So expect him to fight Gennady Golovkin in the spring. At least, that's what I hope.