Miguel Cotto vs. Daniel Geale: Preview and Prediction for Title Fight

Puerto Rican superstar and lineal middleweight champion Miguel Cotto returns to action Saturday night after nearly a year away from the ring. After ruling Madison Square Garden for the past decade, he'll be moving over a borough to Brooklyn to headline the Barclays Center on HBO at 10:30 pm ET/PT. 

Cotto's opponent is former champion Daniel Geale. He is an experienced, world-class opponent, even if he isn't anybody that fans particularly want to see Cotto face. 

This bout will be at a catchweight of 157 pounds, but I would be surprised if Cotto didn't come in a pound or two below that. He is a former light welterweight champion and small for a middleweight. 

Geale is not the tallest or longest fighter Cotto has ever faced, though. Antonio Margarito had an inch in height and two inches in reach on Geale. Floyd Mayweather Jr. has an inch longer reach. 

Both men are experienced veterans at age 34. Cotto has the tougher miles, but Geale suffered a violent knockout less than a year ago from Gennady Golovkin. 

Cotto is one of the great boxing stars of this generation. He's the first four-division champion ever from Puerto Rico. He's sold more tickets at Madison Square Garden than any other fighter in this century, and Saturday night he makes his Brooklyn debut at the Barclays Center. 

His Round 10 TKO of Sergio Martinez last year made him the WBC and lineal champion at middleweight. It was one of the best boxing stories of 2014. But while Cotto deserves credit for yet another great performance, there's no question that Martinez was ripe for the taking.

Martinez has always fought with an athletic style and, age at 39, had undergone multiple surgeries in the two years prior to facing Cotto. He'd been lucky to escape with his title against Martin Murray in April 2013. 

It's been almost a full year since Cotto beat Martinez, and this will be the Puerto Rican's first defense. Meanwhile, undefeated WBA champion Golovkin has continued to emerge as one of the sport's hottest attractions, extending his knockout streak to 20 straight fights. 

Cotto is definitely the man who beat the man who beat the man at middleweight. His belt goes through Martinez to Kelly Pavlik to Jermain Taylor to Bernard Hopkins, who unified every title that mattered in the early part of this century. 

But at this point, any middleweight title not defended against GGG is in serious danger of becoming irrelevant. 

Geale is a former middleweight champion. He's a talented fighter, and under some circumstances, it would be easier to feel a lot of anticipation for Cotto vs. Geale. 

But Geale lasted just two rounds against Golovkin last year, so moving him ahead in line for a shot at Cotto's lineal belt is fishy. It's an odd choice of opponent. In the best of circumstances, Cotto walks away from this fight, saying he beat a fighter who was already smashed by the guy a lot of people think he's ducking. 

Cotto is a well-rounded boxing star with no obvious holes. He has crisp, combination punching and good power in both hands. His lead hook is a dangerous punch, especially to the body. 

Cotto is a master ring general. He controls tempo and distance well.

Geale is a former world champion. He is a rugged, energetic middleweight. He maintains a high work rate throughout an entire fight and has responded well to taking damage when not facing Golovkin. 

Cotto started his career at light welterweight. Junior middleweight has been a comfortable weight class for him since he turned 30, but he is not a legitimate middleweight. His reach was a bit short even for a welterweight.

If he struggles with Geale, it will be due to the size and frame difference.

Geale tends to be predictable in his rhythm. He has a habit of lunging from the outside, which will leave him open to counterpunches to the body against Cotto. He'll also struggle with Cotto's ability to control distance and pace. 

The first tactical problem Cotto will need to solve in this fight is working his way inside of Geale's reach advantage. He's going to need to double up on his own jab in order to time his way inside and underneath Geale's jab. 

Establishing a brisk, stiff jab will also allow Cotto to set up his more dangerous punches. He is an outstanding body puncher and should be able to string the lead hook to the torso smoothly off his jab. 

If Cotto can move inside of Geale's reach, it will actually make his height deficit into a bit of an advantage. As the much shorter fighter, he'll be in good position to strafe Geale's body. 

The uppercut is also a critical punch for Cotto in this fight. When he gets into good range on Geale, the Australian will attempt to clinch and lean on him. A quick, jolting uppercut from underneath should be an effective way to stop Geale before he can make a grab. 

If Cotto can control the distance in this fight and consistently work Geale's body, this should be a long night for Geale and a successful defense for Cotto. 

To upset Cotto in this fight, Geale will need to focus on using basic, straight punches to keep Cotto at the end of his fists and out of range to land. 

Geale is also going to need to fight off his back foot. Cotto is too good a ring general to completely prevent him from closing distance. 

So when Cotto closes distance into range, Geale will have two options. He can take away the remaining distance with a clinch, but he risks getting smoked with an uppercut if he does. 

He's going to need to be ready to re-establish distance by moving backward, screening his retreat behind an overhand right or lead hook. 

When he does end up in a clinch with Cotto, he needs to muscle the smaller man and wear him down. To win this fight, Geale is going to need to play the thug when the opportunity arises. 

Geale has the size and tools to make this a competitive fight, but Cotto is a better boxer and more explosive athlete. Even though he's the smaller man, he has more pop in his fists. 

Cotto will start strong in this fight, and it will be relatively one-sided. Geale will rally to some degree in the middle rounds, but Cotto will get to his body and slow him down the stretch, stopping him sometime after Round 7. 

If Cotto isn't willing to fight Golovkin after this fight, the only honorable thing for him will be to vacate the title and move back down. 

Still, I wouldn't be shocked to see him hold onto the title and use it as a decorative lure toward a bigger, and safer, fight. I have to think Cotto would like a rematch with Mayweather. And so long as Cotto wins over Geale, he'll have the lineal middleweight title to dangle in front of the pound-for-pound king.