Re-Drafting the Top 10 Picks From the 2017 NHL Draft

In 2017, prospect pundits didn't think much of the year's draft class. The Athletic's Corey Pronman, then with ESPN, even called it "one of the weakest of the post-2005 lockout era". I wrote a piece at the time recommending that people not be so quick to write the class off, and while I was optimistic, the sentiment stands.

We're re-drafting the top 10 picks from the 2017 NHL Draft here, and it looks pretty different. We are, of course, working with the benefit of seven (ish, thank you COVID-19-interrupted seasons) seasons worth of observation more than we had at the time, which adds up. But that's the point. How do development paths and years of professional hockey experience affect our perceptions of players?

At the time, I said, "Nuance is critical here. This draft class is weaker than in past years, but it is certainly not without players NHL teams will want in their prospect pools. There’s real talent to be found in this group." I stand by that, even with the added years of evidence.

Note: Nolan Patrick was dropped from the top 10 entirely, and it's no slight to him. We're working with hindsight, and with information about his migraines and concussions, first of all, but we're also working with the knowledge that his first couple of seasons in the NHL weren't what was expected from him. There's too much negative hindsight to compete with the other guys on the list.

Also: I'm so sorry, Stars fans. The middle slides of this article are going to be rough for you. The redo didn't work out in your favor, because your favorite team found too much-hidden talent in 2017 and we know about it now.

Note: Nolan Patrick was dropped from the top 10 entirely, and it's no slight to him. We're working with hindsight, and with information about his migraines and concussions, first of all, but we're also working with the knowledge that his first couple of seasons in the NHL weren't what was expected from him. There's too much negative hindsight to compete with the other guys on the list.

Also: I'm so sorry, Stars fans. The middle slides of this article are going to be rough for you. The redo simply didn't work out in your favor, because your favorite team found too much hidden talent in 2017 and we know about it now.

At the time, Nico Hischier was the correct pick for first overall. But again—we're drafting with the benefit of hindsight. And hindsight shows us that the people who believed in the defenseman from the Brooks Bandits of the Alberta Junior Hockey League (a junior A league) were right.

Cale Makar had a phenomenal start to his career. He won the Hobey Baker in 2019, the Calder Memorial Trophy as the best rookie in the NHL the following season, and a Stanley Cup and the Conn Smythe trophy with the Colorado Avalanche two years after. If you're the New Jersey Devils and you're drafting with the benefit of hindsight, no matter how much you love captain Nico Hischier, you have to take Makar. His burning speed and unreal hockey sense make him a nightmare for opponents when he steps onto the ice.

With Makar gone to the Devils, Swiss center Nico Hischier is available for the Philadelphia Flyers at second overall. Not too shabby of a consolation prize. Going second would still make Hischier the highest-drafted Swiss player in the NHL (the next-highest being Nino Niederreiter at 5th in 2010), and he wouldn't even be that far away geographically. One interesting note: before the draft, many outlets had Hischier as the second-ranked prospect behind actual Flyers pick Nolan Patrick. Ray Shero just couldn't resist.

Out of the Flyers' first-round picks since 2017, only Matvei Michkov can compete with Hischier on a pure skill level. Hischier's 396 career points aren't anything to sneeze at either. Between his skating and playmaking skills, he's a dangerous opponent, particularly when paired with highly skilled linemates. Claude Giroux on Nico Hischier's wing, anyone? (Too soon?)

With all the noise coming out of Vancouver this season around Elias Pettersson, it was interesting to envision him in a different environment entirely. And sure, the Dallas Stars love their Finns, but what if they'd selected a Swede instead?

While taking Miro Heiskanen third overall has worked out pretty well for the Stars in the intervening years, a world where they picked Elias Pettersson has interesting consequences. It gives them a boost at center, first of all, and adds to their overall offensive production. His speed, his shot volume, the strength he can put behind his shot—all things that would benefit the Stars. (We're talking career overall, before you come tell me he's not playing like that this season. I've seen it.)

You can never entirely predict how a different development environment will affect a player. There are just too many variables. But seeing Pettersson develop in a less media-heavy, nontraditional market would've been interesting.

Here's where Stars fans get really mad at me. I'm sorry, but Jason Robertson does not stay a hidden second-rounder in this redraft. He's currently playing at over a point-per-game pace for his career, and he's had two seasons where he passed the 40-goal mark. If you can call an early second-round pick a steal (debatable but not impossible), Robertson has turned out to be one. 

Robertson as a second-round pick made sense at the time, to be clear. His skating has never been amazing (something he's having to contend with this season as well, post-foot surgery) and though he was probably one of the best pure goal scorers in the class, if there are concerns about a player's mobility it leaves a mark on his overall outlook in the eyes of scouting staffs. Especially with the game moving in an ever quicker, more mobile direction. Still, his production up to now has been outstanding, even with a slow and somewhat concerning start to this season. Who wouldn't take that offense?

The hits to the Stars fans keep coming on this slide and the next. (Please don't hate me.)

Though it wasn't intentional, we've swapped Elias Pettersson and Miro Heiskanen. All other things being the same, this would give the Canucks Heiskanen in 2017 and Quinn Hughes in 2018, and that's quite the duo of defensemen. 

Heiskanen's biggest draw was his play off the puck, and he's more than lived up to the sell. His defensive instincts were incredible at the time, along with his skating (he's one of the best in the league at present). In the intervening years we've seen his preternatural ability to read the ice apply to Heiskanen's offense as well. When paired with the offensive ability of captain Quinn Hughes, we can't imagine the Canucks having any issue with this pick.

Okay, Stars fans, this is the last time I'll hurt you.

But Jake Oettinger's talent cannot stay stuck at the end of the first round. Not with everything we've seen from him in the intervening years. The Boston University product was part of the USA's gold-medal-winning 2017 World Juniors team (and part of the 2018 team with the next guy on this list) and is currently representing the USA at the Four Nations Tournament. 

Aside from Marc-Andre Fleury, the Golden Knights didn't have much going for them at the goaltending position. Sixth overall is early for a goalie, particularly when talented goaltenders are often available late in the draft, and I don't know that I would endorse this pick without the benefit of hindsight. But we do have that hindsight. And with the goalie that Oettinger has turned out to be, it seems like a pretty solid swing.

Speaking of goalies whose talent cannot be confined to their original draft position: let's talk Jeremy Swayman. In this timeline, the New York Rangers would still have Henrik Lundqvist. The thought of Jeremy Swayman getting to play under and be mentored by Henrik Lundqvist is a wonderful one, and that alone would be reason enough for me to make this pick, much less considering Swayman's talent level.

I feel like I need to be worried about Bruins fans taking a hit out on me for suggesting this, and I'd just like to take a moment and apologize. But with the goaltending we've seen from Swayman during his NHL career, even behind a horrible defense, he deserves to be drafted higher. And much like with Oettinger, while I wouldn't condone taking an unproven goalie inside the top 10, I will confidently place him here with everything that we know now.

I'm going to apologize now for taking the Montreal Canadiens captain and resigning him to a career with the Buffalo Sabres, ss they have been during Nick Suzuki's NHL career But Suzuki moving up from his original draft slot—13th to the Vegas Golden Knights—to within the top 10 makes a lot of sense when you watch him play.

At the time of his draft, when he played for the Owen Sound Attack of the OHL, he was praised as being a quick skater, a very intelligent player who could use that intelligence at the game's top speeds and craft creative plays (while preferring to shoot the puck whenever he could). We've seen that come to fruition in the NHL. And both Suzuki's offensive ability and leadership skills likely would've been welcomed on the Sabres' roster.

If we're going on vibes alone, the only team that makes as much sense as the St. Louis Blues for Robert Thomas is the Detroit Red Wings. Thomas was originally drafted 20th overall—a fair spot—but watching both Thomas and the other first-rounders in the years since, I would move him up quite a few picks. 

In his draft season, Thomas drew comparisons to fellow former London Knight Bo Horvat, but I'm going to confess: I like Thomas more than I like Horvat, stylistically and career-wise. After doing a little quick math, Thomas has a better point-per-game total than Horvat (0.80 versus 0.69), which is not something I expected going into this. That slight digression aside, Thomas makes a lot of sense for the Red Wings. He plays with a lot of jam, but in a way that's useful rather than stereotypical "tough" play that gets touted in more traditional hockey discussions. He was aggressive on the forecheck even at the time, and dangerous in all three zones. And he's just fun to watch, then and now.

In 2017, rather than Owen Tippett, we have the Panthers selecting former Carolina Hurricane, current Colorado Avalanche center Martin Necas two slots earlier than he went. In this universe, the Calgary Flames still drafted Matthew Tkachuk in the first round in 2016, and he still ended up with the Panthers. And the idea of a universe where Tkachuk ends up on Necas's wing is a nice one, to put it mildly. 

Backing up a bit: the center position for the Panthers in 2017-18 wasn't half bad (Barkov, Trocheck, Huberdeau, Bjugstad) so Necas probably would've still played another year in the Czech Republic and then spent some time in the AHL. This is a good thing because this development path is why Necas ended up the valuable player he is today. I don't think he would've been much different—he just would've been doing it all for the Panthers, and he would probably have a Stanley Cup win under his belt.