The 2025 Worst-Case Scenarios for Every MLB Team
"Hope springs eternal," as they say. And it's a useful phrase at this moment in the baseball calendar, with teams across MLB at a new season with wide eyes and optimistic hearts.
Here's the bad news, though: Having already covered the best-case scenarios for all 30 teams in 2025, it is now time to consider the opposite side of the spectrum.
We'll be looking at each team's worst-case scenario, and they're all a bit more complicated than "miss playoffs, go home, pout." No team wants to have a bad season, but there are specific potential outcomes that would make a bad season feel even worse.
We'll go division by division and check teams off in order of how they finished in 2024.
American League East
New York Yankees: Aaron Judge breaks down and the winning-season streak ends
2024 Record: 94-68
The Yankees have already had a sizable chunk taken out of their roster by the injury bug, with the worst of the owies being Gerrit Cole's Tommy John surgery.
Pretty much their only hope of getting back to the World Series now involves Aaron Judge being, well, Aaron Judge. If you combine his last two fully healthy seasons, you get 120 home runs and 21.6 rWAR.
Judge is about to turn 33 on April 26, however, and injuries are already a not-infrequent occurrence for him. If he misses ample time with anything this year, the Yankees' streak of 32 seasons with a winning record may finally end.
Baltimore Orioles: The rotation keeps an otherwise strong team out of the playoffs
2024 Record: 91-71
As you may have heard, the Orioles' starting rotation no longer has Corbin Burnes. Or a healthy Grayson Rodriguez, for that matter. Accordingly, it projects as a bottom-third unit for FanGraphs.
It is possible that the rotation will surprise people. And if not, the O's can hope to make up for it with their offense alone. Theirs is, after all, a star-studded unit that finished second in home runs last season.
Then again, Anthony Santander contributed 44 homers to last year's lineup and he's gone now. It feels like this is being overlooked, but perhaps not for much longer.
Boston Red Sox: Garrett Crochet burns out and they finish below .500
2024 Record: 81-81
It's not hard to imagine the 2025 Red Sox becoming a juggernaut. They had a great offseason, and the prospect trio of Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell and Marcelo Mayer is standing by to push the team even higher.
The Red Sox have already experienced injury turbulence on the mound, however, which only puts more pressure on Crochet to prove he can handle the workload of a proper No. 1. To wit, he was capped at four innings in the last three months of 2024.
If he's not up for more, then Boston's rotation may only ever look good on paper throughout this season.
Tampa Bay Rays: The offense fails to recover and they plummet to last place
2024 Record: 80-82
How did the 2024 Rays finish just two games below .500 despite ranking 29th in scoring? Luck, mostly.
As for where more runs may come from in 2025, a breakout on the part of Junior Caminero carries tons of promise. The 21-year-old was a menace in the minors, and that swing of his sure is sweet.
Apart from Caminero, though, the Rays don't have much in the way of upside in their 2025 lineup. If that bites them, Lady Luck may not bail them out this time.
Toronto Blue Jays: They failed to extend or trade Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and miss the playoffs
2024 Record: 74-88
There are two ways the Blue Jays can avoid disaster in 2025.
One is that they play well enough to make the postseason, which is certainly possible after they loaded up with Santander and more over the offseason. The other is that they fall completely out of the race and are able to trade Guerrero and other pending free agents (i.e., Bo Bichette, Max Scherzer, et al) for a nice haul.
Disaster will strike if the Jays stay in the race just long enough to keep all their guys, only to miss the playoffs anyway. And despite their internal bullishness, they could also fail to extend Guerrero and ultimately watch him walk as a free agent.
American League Central
Cleveland Guardians: The bullpen regresses and causes them to miss the playoffs
2024 Record: 92-69
The Guardians don't resemble the same team that went to the ALCS in 2024. Key parts are missing, including Josh Naylor and Andrés Giménez.
The bright side is that they retained Emmanuel Clase and other core members of a bullpen that had an MLB-best (by far) 2.57 ERA in 2024. They even added Paul Sewald, who was an elite reliever as recently as 2023.
The trouble with relievers, however, is that they can be extremely volatile from year to year. If the Guardians learn that the hard way, it could be a long season in Cleveland.
Kansas City Royals: Injuries wreck the rotation and pave the way back to 100 losses
2024 Record: 86-76
Just as the Guardians relied heavily on their bullpen to get to the postseason in 2024, the Royals did the same with their starting rotation.
It was the best in the league in terms of WAR, with Seth Lugo and Cole Ragans pitching well enough to rank second and fourth in the AL Cy Young Award voting, respectively. They're back for 2025, and so is Michael Wacha.
Neither Ragans nor Wacha has been a paragon of durability, however, and Lugo is 35 years old. The notion that one, two or all three could be hit hard by an injury is far from inconceivable.
Detroit Tigers: Not signing Alex Bregman breaks their season
2024 Record: 86-76
Bregman is with the Red Sox now, but that's not where he thought he was going to sign until shortly before he and Boston came together on a contract:
The Tigers even presented Bregman with more money, extending a six-year, $171.5 million offer compared to the three year, $120 pact he accepted from the Red Sox.
It is therefore not for lack of trying that the Tigers missed out, but that is little comfort while they're trying to stick it out with Javier BĂĄez at third base. And after they barely made the playoffs in 2024, it is conceivable that missing out on Bregman could be what keeps them out of October in 2025.
Minnesota Twins: Injuries to core offensive stars leave them short of October
2024 Record: 82-80
The Twins were firmly in the AL playoff picture last year until the very end, when it all unraveled amid a 12-27 finish to the season.
FanGraphs is particularly bullish on the Twins to rectify this by getting back to the playoffs, giving them a 55.3 percent chance of doing so. And when you consider some of the names on this roster, that doesn't seem too outlandish.
Royce Lewis is already hurt again, however, and Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton have plenty of risk in their own right. As these are the Twins' three best hitters, it's not exactly an ideal scenario for an offense.
Chicago White Sox: They do the seemingly impossible and break their own record
2024 Record: 41-121
The White Sox were historically bad in 2024. You might have heard about it, and it's certainly an experience their fans would rather not repeat.
Odds are that they don't have to worry about it. Even in losing 121 games in 2024, the White Sox weren't actually that bad. They're owed some good luck in 2025, if nothing else.
It is nonetheless worth noting that the White Sox lost all those games in 2024 even with Garrett Crochet. He's in Boston now, and Luis Robert Jr. may be next to leave town if Chicago can find a taker for him in a trade.
American League West
Houston Astros: They finish a functional outfield short of the playoffs
2024 Record: 88-73
It's not easy to be high on the Astros going into 2025. Not after they slipped to 88 wins and got bounced from the first round of the playoffs in 2024. Not after they lost Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker over the winter.
Besides, have you seen their outfield?
It's a Franken-outfield, with Chas McCormick in right, Jake Meyers in center and Jose Altuve in left for some reason. It has the potential to be the weakest outfield in the AL West, and that could cost them in what figures to be a tight race.
Seattle Mariners: Julio RodrĂguez goes full bust and they fall below .500
2024 Record: 85-77
Sleepless in Seattle? Nah, more like Sleeping Giant in Seattle, as FanGraphs gives the Mariners a sturdy 10.8 percent chance of winning their first AL pennant in 2025.
They'll have to hit, though, which is something they didn't do until the very end of last season. RodrĂguez was a big part of the problem, as he still had a sub-.700 OPS as late as September 12.
He should be better than that, but he's also done nothing but regress since winning the AL Rookie of the Year in 2022. If he doesn't snap out of it, the M's will be in serious trouble.
Texas Rangers: Jacob deGrom's return is a flop and so is the team
2024 Record: 78-84
The Rangers came into spring training looking dangerous, but injuries to their rotation have already caused them to turn to Patrick Corbin in desperation.
There's thus that much more pressure on deGrom to hold together in his first full season back from his second Tommy John surgery. He has a good plan in this regard, as he wants to sit around 96 mph in lieu of redlining around 100.
Even still, he's 36 years old now and will be 37 on June 19. No matter the miles per hour, the Rangers will be holding their breath with every pitch he makes in 2025.
Athletics: They lose even more in front of even fewer fans
2024 Record: 69-93
There is better than a non-zero chance that the 2025 A's are going to be competitive.
They did play .500 ball in the second half of 2024, after all, and they did well to both add and secure talent over the winter. Per an MLB.com survey, they're now seen as a sleeper by players around the league.
And yet, FanGraphs expects them to lose 86 games. If they struggle to even do that well, it will be a comfort that they'll be seen by a maximum of 14,014 fans for home games in Sacramento after averaging 11,386 fans per game in Oakland last year.
Los Angeles Angels: Mike Trout gets hurt again and renders the team utterly unwatchable
2024 Record: 63-99
For anyone scoring at home, Trout has played in just 266 of the Angels' 648 games across the last four seasons. That includes just 36 games in 2021 and 29 last year.
He is, mercifully, healthy now and even moving from center to right field in an attempt to stay that way. It's enough for at least a crossed-fingers measure of hope that three-time AL MVP will stay on the field in 2025.
But if he doesn't...yeesh. Not just for his sake, but especially that of the Angels franchise that is coming off its worst ever season in 2024.
National League East
Philadelphia Phillies: Age catches up with them and they miss the playoffs
2024 Record: 95-67
The Phillies feel like the forgotten superpower in MLB. They had the best record in the league for most of 2024, and are heading into 2025 with the third-best playoff odds at FanGraphs.
You can nonetheless practically see their window closing in real time. There are just too many 30-somethings on this roster, including six of nine projected lineup regulars and co-aces Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola.
This does not mean the Phillies are doomed. But in the event that age does catch up with them in 2025, there may well not be a recovery in 2026.
Atlanta Braves: Ronald Acuña Jr. and Spencer Strider aren't the same and it costs them a playoff spot
2024 Record: 89-73
The Braves can't possibly get less from Acuña and Strider than they got in 2024. Strider made only two starts before needing elbow surgery, while Acuña posted 0 WAR in 49 games before suffering his second ACL tear in four seasons.
Things are now looking up for both. Acuña should be back in May. As for Strider, well, he seems just fine:
If not quite concern, there is nonetheless cause for mild pessimism. Acuña has already vowed to take it easier on the basepaths, while Strider will have to be careful now that he's had two UCL surgeries before he even turned 26.
New York Mets: They never fix their rotation and it costs them a playoff spot
2024 Record: 89-73
For the record, I actually did attempt to throw cold water on the Mets' $765 million deal with Juan Soto. But he's just...well, he's just too good.
It is nonetheless odd that, even amid an offseason that saw Steve Cohen rack up over $1 billion worth of new salaries, the Mets somehow spared expense with their rotation. This is already looming as a factor with Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas set to start the year on the IL.
The trade market may prove to be the Mets' salvation, but even one impact trade may not be enough. Even setting aside Manaea and Montas, there are durability questions present with Kodai Senga and Clay Holmes as well.
Washington Nationals: The youngsters have growing pains and the team regresses
2024 Record: 71-91
The Nationals took a sizable step toward being watchable again in 2024, particularly after they called up James Wood on July 1.
Now it's Dylan Crews' turn to break out, and that could be quite the event. The No. 2 pick from the 2023 draft is now MLB.com's No. 4 prospect, and he'll be out there for the Nationals in right field on Opening Day.
Yet even despite these good vibes, FanGraphs has the Nats down for 89 losses in 2025. That would be a small step forward, and it might not even materialize if Crews is humbled and Wood endures a sophomore slump.
Miami Marlins: Sandy Alcantara gets hurt before they can trade him and they lose 100 games again
2024 Record: 62-100
This will be another rebuilding year for the Marlins, and the best hope for the farm system lies in trading Alcantara for a boatload of prospects.
This is eminently doable, and not just because there are a ton of potential fits for the 2022 NL Cy Young Award winner. He's looked brilliant in his return from Tommy John surgery this spring, thus far racking up 12.1 scoreless innings.
Yet even if there's no tangible reason to expect Alcantara to get hurt again, he's ultimately a pitcher. Pitchers break, and the Marlins will be screwed if it happens to Alcantara before they have a chance to cash him in.
National League Central
Milwaukee Brewers: Deficiencies at shortstop and closer cost them a playoff spot
2024 Record: 93-69
The Brewers began last year with a 17.6 percent chance of winning the NL Central, yet pretty much had the division sewn up by August.
This was with Willy Adames at short and Devin Williams in the closer's role, at least for the second half of the season for the latter. Each is now out of the picture, and neither position looks better for it.
The Brewers will probably be competitive anyway. But given how many stars they've shed in recent years, we may be about to find out how many is too many.
Chicago Cubs: They miss the playoffs and then Kyle Tucker walks
2024 Record: 83-79
The Cubs should have extended Tucker as soon as they traded for him in December. But at least per Patrick Mooney of The Athletic, that ship may have sailed.
If so, there's tremendous pressure on the Cubs to justify their trade for Tucker before he has a chance to walk as a free agent at the end of the year. Picture the Yankees' 2024 experience with Juan Soto, but ideally with three more wins.
Yet if the Cubs are the team to beat in the NL Central, it may only be by default. They might have done more during the offseason, but instead saw fit to lower their payroll by over $30 million.
St. Louis Cardinals: The young guys fail to develop and they sink to last place
2024 Record: 83-79
The Cardinals probably aren't going to be good in 2025. But then again, that was their outlook for 2024 and they ended up beating expectations.
This could happen again if the various 20-somethings in their offense break out under new hitting coach Brant Brown. Cardinals fans will be especially fixated on Jordan Walker and Nolan Gorman, who were both elite prospects not long ago.
It hasn't been an encouraging spring for either, however. Walker has a .469 OPS in 11 games, with Gorman at .585 through 17 contests.
Cincinnati Reds: They don't hit enough to support a playoff run
2024 Record: 77-85
The Reds play in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in MLB, so they should be able to take offense as a given.
Yet this wasn't the case last year, wherein even Elly De La Cruz couldn't keep the offense from rating at 12 percent below average. As far as new additions go, neither Gavin Lux nor Austin Hays gives off savior energy.
The irony is that the Reds have a solid pitching staff, particularly with Hunter Greene atop the rotation. It would be downright tragicomic if they do their job, but the Reds miss out on the playoffs because the hitters didn't do theirs.
Pittsburgh Pirates: They waste a Cy Young Award-winning season by Paul Skenes
2024 Record: 76-86
Though he didn't make his MLB debut until May 11, Skenes rightfully placed in the top three in the voting for the NL Cy Young Award last year. And that was just a warm-up.
According to DraftKings, Skenes is the guy to beat (+300) for the NL Cy Young Award in 2025. It would be hard to argue that even if he hadn't added yet another nasty offering to his arsenal.
Yet rather than build around Skenes to facilitate a move out of last place, Pirates owner Bob Nutting greenlit the smallest possible payroll increase for 2025. It's as if he's really bad at this.
National League West
Los Angeles Dodgers: Shohei Ohtani blows his elbow out again
2024 Record: 98-64
Look, the Dodgers are not going to have a bad year in 2025. Such an outcome is possible only in a "when pigs fly" sort of way.
More likely is that the specter of injuries will return to haunt Dodgers pitchers for a second year in a row. And they will have invited it, as their pitching staff is built on a foundation of upside rather than one of stability.
Certainly, the last thing they want is for Ohtani to hurt his elbow again after a second major surgery forced him to take a year off from pitching in 2024. The Dodgers aren't exactly rushing him back, of course, but you just never know.
San Diego Padres: Aging stars flop and so does the team
2024 Record: 93-69
The Padres have indeed already run into trouble with Yu Darvish, who may be out into May with inflammation in his right elbow.
That creates more pressure on Dylan Cease, Michael King and Nick Pivetta to stay on the mound, but the real question here looms over the offense.
Manny Machado (32), Xander Bogaerts (32) and Jake Cronenworth (31) are another year older, and coming off a season in which they were collectively just nine percent above average offensively. Over $50 million in total salary simply must buy more than that in 2025.
Arizona Diamondbacks: Corbin Burnes hurts his arm and it costs them a playoff spot
2024 Record: 89-73
Speaking of arm injuries, Burnes has literally never had one. At least, not one bad enough to force him onto the IL since he began his MLB career.
The D-backs need this trend to continue if they want to have a shot at unseating the Dodgers in 2025. They had the offense for the task in 2024, but their rotation held the team back with a 28th-ranked 2.9 WAR.
Burnes and co-ace Zac Gallen should turn that particular table if they stay healthy. But with Burnes, specifically, one can't help but wonder when the 757 innings he pitched between 2021 and 2024 might take their toll.
San Francisco Giants: The new additions go bust and they fall further below .500
2024 Record: 80-82
You have to give Buster Posey this much: What he lacks in experience as a president of baseball operations, he clearly makes up for in clout.
After years of trying and failing to lure stars to San Francisco, the Giants scored Willy Adames and Justin Verlander in Posey's first winter in charge. The hope now is that the team will finally rise above .500 and return to the playoffs.
And yet, FanGraphs has the Giants projected to finish exactly at 81-81. They'll need a lot to go right, including for Verlander to pitch younger than his 42 years and for Adames' power to survive Oracle Park.
Colorado Rockies: They lose 100 games again and continue to change nothing
2024 Record: 61-101
After not losing 100 games even once between 1993 and 2022, the Rockies have done it in back-to-back seasons.
Their solution? Well, what solution? They're mostly letting it ride with what they've had in the last two seasons, in terms of players, coaching (Bud Black is still there) and front office personnel (Bill Schmidt has basically always been there).
Maybe the organization will take the hint when Rockies fans stop showing up to Coors Field. Which, to their credit, they already are.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.