MLB Predictions: Round-by-Round Playoff and 2025 World Series Picks

It's that time of year again. A new MLB season is nigh and a foolish few try to trick the world into thinking they know how it's going to go.

Accordingly, the following are my predictions for which 12 teams will make the 2025 playoffs and, of course, which of those will win the World Series. Of all the reasons these predictions exist, me actually thinking I'll be right is not one of them.

The idea is to have a little fun while otherwise crediting teams that should be in for a good season. To this end, there's at least one obvious juggernaut that FanGraphs gives a 23.2 percent chance of repeating as World Series champs.

But here's a spoiler for you: That team is not the ultimate victor of this exercise.

Intrigued? Good. Because this is the part where we get into predicting the 2025 MLB playoffs in round-by-round fashion.

Predicting the AL Playoff Field

1. Boston Red Sox (AL East Champions)*
2. Seattle Mariners (AL West Champions)*
3. Detroit Tigers (AL Central Champions)
4. Texas Rangers (Wild Card 1)
5. Baltimore Orioles (Wild Card 2)
6. Houston Astros (Wild Card 3)

*First-round byes

Why These Teams?

The American League feels wide-open, with FanGraphs not giving any team better than 65 percent odds to make the playoffs or a 12.9 percent chance to win the pennant.

So, what the heck? Let's be interesting instead.

The Red Sox and Mariners are candidates to rise to the top simply because they have so much darn upside. And to be clear, we're talking for both sides of the ball.

The Mariners obviously have the pitching, and now's the time to buy stock in Julio Rodríguez lifting the offense with an MVP-caliber campaign. The Red Sox remade their rotation over the winter—Garrett Crochet gives off AL Cy Young Award energy—and just wait until uber-prospect Roman Anthony joins what is already a star-studded lineup.

The Tigers had the best winter of the AL Central's three playoff teams from last year. They also have intriguing in-house breakout candidates, led by top prospect Jackson Jobe and fallen prospect Spencer Torkelson, who's had a huge spring.

As for the wild cards, the Rangers and Astros are safe bets for 85-90 wins and the Orioles have what they need to win despite of their woeful starting pitching. Namely: a powerful offense and a bullpen that has Félix Bautista again.

Most Notable Omission

Duh. It's the New York Yankees.

They're the reigning American League champs but, hoo boy, are they in dire straights right now. The injury bug has already decimated their roster, and one just isn't confident that a soon-to-be 33-year-old Aaron Judge will be spared.

Predicting the NL Playoff Field

1. Los Angeles Dodgers (NL West Champions)*
2. Philadelphia Phillies (NL East Champions)*
3. Chicago Cubs (NL Central Champions)
4. Arizona Diamondbacks (Wild Card 1)
5. Atlanta Braves (Wild Card 2)
6. Cincinnati Reds (Wild Card 3)

*First-round byes

Why These Teams?

The Dodgers did more damage to New York last year than the Stay Puft Marshmallow Man in 1984, and the roster they've assembled for 2025 has MVPs, All-Stars and aces in every corner. So, yeah. They're in.

Ditto for the Phillies, who had MLB's best record for most of 2024 and are deeper now after a relatively quiet yet fruitful offseason.

The Braves are also in, though one hesitates to go all-in on their 104-win, 1927 Yankees-ish form of 2023 coming all the way back. To this end, even Ronald Acuña Jr. is lowering the bar for his personal expectations.

The Diamondbacks won 89 games last season despite a rotation that was worse (i.e., 2.9 WAR) than it had any right to be. Corbin Burnes is in to help solve that problem, though Zac Gallen is frankly over-qualified to be his No. 2.

Which leaves the Cubs, who are the closest thing to a sure thing in the NL Central, and the Reds, who don't have a playoff-caliber roster.

Then again, that was also supposed to be true of Cleveland in 2013, yet new Reds manager Terry Francona made the playoffs happen for that team anyway. And if anyone's not yet an Elly De La Cruz evangelist, well, that's your problem.

Most Notable Omission

One could say the San Diego Padres, but the stink that franchise is giving off is palpable indeed. And besides, the obvious answer is the New York Mets.

Yes, they have Juan Soto. And a generally terrifying offense, really. But their pitching depth was a red flag even before Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas got hurt, and pitching coach Jeremy Hefner surely only has so many miracles in him.

Houston Astros (6) vs. Detroit Tigers (3)

Did someone say, "Rematch?"

It was quite the surprise when the Tigers swept the Astros in the Wild Card Series last year, and that was without a co-ace for AL Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal. If top prospect Jackson Jobe isn't that guy in 2025, then free-agent returnee Jack Flaherty may be.

To be fair, Houston does have the better lineup...but only at Daikin Park. Pull-happy righties like Jose Altuve, Christian Walker and Isaac Paredes would be at a significant disadvantage if Comerica Park is the theater for this engagement.

Tigers in 2

Baltimore Orioles (5) at Texas Rangers (4)

It's another rematch, albeit one of a 2023 Division Series showdown that the Rangers won handily with a sweep.

That one was meant to be a fireworks display between two powerful offenses, which could also be a theme of the rematch. Corey Seager and his friends versus Gunnar Henderson and his? Hmmm, yes, bring on the dingers.

Unless! The obvious difference this year is that the Rangers have a healthy—he said, crossing his fingers—Jacob deGrom, who would be by far the best pitcher on either side of this series.

Rangers in 3

Cincinnati Reds (6) at Chicago Cubs (3)

Are the Cubs the better team? Probably, and one is particularly drawn to their potential superstar outfield duo of Kyle Tucker and Pete Crow-Armstrong.

I'll nonetheless ring a challenge bell by calling Elly De La Cruz the best player in this series, and again by proclaiming that the Reds would also have the best pitcher.

Did anyone see Hunter Greene in 2024? Holy smokes. He finally unlocked his fastball and was ultimately a WAR co-equal for the danged NL Cy Young Award winner.

Reds in 3

Atlanta Braves (5) at Arizona Diamondbacks (4)

Abandon all hope of low-scoring games, ye who enter here. The Braves were the highest-scoring team of 2023, while the Diamondbacks were that team for 2024.

Which will be the better offense in 2025 is a hard choice. The Braves have more name-brand stars and more power. But the Snakes' lineup is arguably more dynamic, and Corbin Carroll's supernova spring suggests he can be better than even his 25-54 self from 2023.

If it is therefore a question of containment, a potential problem for Atlanta is its best pitcher no longer being functional come October. Indeed, that wasn't the case for NL Cy Young Award winner Chris Sale last year, and he'll turn 36 on March 30.

Diamondbacks in 3

Detroit Tigers (3) vs. Seattle Mariners (2)

The Tigers will have burned their two best starters in the Wild Card Series to get to this point, and that would be the least of their worries.

The Mariners chuck it with the best of 'em, and even more so at T-Mobile Park. Logan Gilbert and friends co-led MLB with a 3.49 ERA overall in 2024, and they did even better with a 2.85 ERA at home.

Relevant stuff, given that the Mariners would have home-field advantage in this context. And between these two offenses, the scales tip toward the one with Julio Rodríguez, Cal Raleigh and Randy Arozarena as having more explosiveness.

Mariners in 4

Texas Rangers (4) vs. Boston Red Sox (1)

Assuming Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi were used to get the Rangers here, they wouldn't be able to use either of their two best guys in Game 1.

That would be a problem if Garrett Crochet lives up to the hype he's been generating. Not just last year by way of a league-best 35.1 strikeout percentage, but certainly this spring with 30 strikeouts out of 66 batters faced.

Though Corey Seager would be the best hitter on either side, Boston's offense potentially goes deeper than Texas'. The front four alone—Jarren Duran, Rafael Devers, Alex Bregman, Triston Casas—is as dangerous as they come.

Red Sox in 3

Cincinnati Reds (6) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (2)

The last time the Phillies faced a No. 6 seed in the Division Series, it didn't go so well. It was last year, when the Mets beat them in four.

Still, it was some consolation that the 2024 Mets were no ordinary No. 6 seed. They were the best team in MLB after Grimace showed up at Citi Field in June 12. Whether in a general or a more specific way, the Reds replicating that kind of magic in 2025 seems unlikely.

There's otherwise one quality about this Phillies team that is being underrated, but we'll get more into that in previewing the NLCS.

Phillies in 4

Arizona Diamondbacks (4) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (1)

This is one of those moments where you can feel the upset, and we indeed know from 2023 what the D-backs shocking the Dodgers in the playoffs looks like.

This is a different Dodgers team, however. The '23 iteration basically ran out of pitching, which will only happen in 2025 if some sort of blight that only affects No. 1-caliber starters sweeps through Los Angeles.

Assuming Rōki Sasaki builds on his rough debut in Japan, the Dodgers will have at least four No. 1 types in their rotation to begin this season. And as tough as Arizona's offense is, it does not have a Shohei Ohtani.

Dodgers in 4

Seattle Mariners (2) vs. Boston Red Sox (1)

The Mariners were regulars in the ALCS once upon a time, playing in three of them between 1995 and 2001.

They haven't been back since, but pitching really (no, really) isn't the only reason to think they can break the streak in 2025. The offensive issues they had early in 2024 were ultimately revealed to be a coaching issue, as Seattle led the AL in scoring after swapping Scott Servais for Dan Wilson in the manager's chair.

Here's the thing about that pitching, however: It does pay a tax on the road.

True of most staffs, perhaps, but Seattle hurlers had a 4.18 ERA away from T-Mobile Park last year. That ranked 18th in MLB, compared to No. 1 for their home ERA.

This would bode well for the Red Sox if they had home-field advantage against Seattle in the ALCS. And if their bats could effectively neutralize the Mariners' arms, the latter's bats would have to pick up the slack.

Apropos of the notes above, it wouldn't be a hopeless situation for the Mariners. The juggernaut vibes emanating from the Red Sox offense nonetheless feel very real, so the thinking here is that Boston would be able to survive and advance to the World Series.

Red Sox in 7

Philadelphia Phillies (2) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (1)

The Dodgers were a Team of Destiny in 2024, and there's really no good reason to think they can't be again in 2025.

If anything, you have to give them credit for telling "good enough" to shove it during the winter. The roster they constructed feels custom-designed to do what no team has done since the 1998-2000 Yankees: repeat as champs.

Surely, the Phillies can't take them down...right? Right?

Well, of course they can. This is baseball. It doesn't play along, and there is one area where the Phillies figure to be a good match for the Dodgers.

That's on the mound, where the Phillies have at least as many No. 1-type starters as the Dodgers. Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola need no introduction. Jesús Luzardo is nasty when he's healthy, and newly increased velocity has 2024 All-Star Cristopher Sánchez on track to explode in 2025.

Further, Andrew Painter's time is nigh. After missing all of 2023 and 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgery, the 6'7", 215-pound righty is back and not far from showing MLB fans that both his repertoire and command are elite.

Phillies in 6

Philadelphia Phillies (2) vs. Boston Red Sox (1)

The last time the Red Sox were in the World Series was in 2018. And among those who were there, only Rafael Devers and Alex Cora remain.

By contrast, many members of the 2025 Phillies were there for the Fall Classic in 2022. It famously did not go well for them, and attempts to get revenge in 2023 and 2024 produced diminishing returns.

You have to wonder how many more attempts these Phillies have left in them. For all the young talent they have, they have more older talent. Particularly on offense, where Bryce Harper is but one of six 30-somethings in the everyday lineup.

It's the Red Sox who would have youthful energy on their side, with both their offense and their starting pitching replete with 20-somethings. That could be an advantage...unless it proved to be a burden.

Save for Devers, not one of those 20-somethings has any meaningful postseason experience. And before anyone asks about Garrett Crochet, those playoff games he pitched for the Chicago White Sox in 2020 were as a reliever.

The Phillies' collective experience could therefore be the real edge, though perhaps not as much as their pitching. Whereas they could merely match up with the Dodgers in terms of No. 1 starters, the Red Sox have at most three of those if you're counting Walker Buehler and Tanner Houck.

So, there you have it, Phillies fans. And remember, it's only a jinx if I'm wrong.

Phillies in 6

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.