UFC on ESPN 64: Moreno vs. Erceg Main Card Predictions

Brandon Moreno's quest to regain the flyweight title will continue this Saturday, when the UFC makes its latest stop in Mexico City. Standing across from the Mexican star will be visiting Australian Steve Erceg, a former title challenger on his own mission for redemption.

For Moreno, it will be a chance to build on the momentum of an impressive decision victory over Amir Albazi. Erceg, meanwhile, will be looking to get back on track after a decision loss to reigning champ Alexandre Pantoja, and a tough knockout defeat against top contender Kai Kara-France.

It's a fight that could go either way, and it's not the only such booking on the Mexico City bill.

Earlier on the card, we'll get a fan-friendly lightweight scrap between rising Mexican star Manuel Torres, and always entertaining American Drew Dober. We'll also be treated to the latest Octagon appearance from imposing knockout artist Joe Pyfer, who will take on former interim title challenger Kelvin Gastelum.

Rising bantamweight contender Raul Rosas Jr. will also be back in action on the card, taking one of his toughest tests to date in the form of Vince Morales. As if all of that wasn't appetizing enough, the main card will be kicked off by a fun flyweight fight between Ronaldo Rodriguez and Kevin Borjas, and an exciting bantamweight booking pitting David Martinez against Saimon Oliveira.

It may not be a UFC pay-per-view, but it's a solid enough offering that the B/R combat sports squad has assembled for another round of pre-fight predictions. Here's how we see it going down.

Tom Taylor: This is a fantastic fight, but I feel pretty confident that Brandon Moreno is going to win. He is good enough to hang with Erceg in every area of the fight, and figures to be the faster man when they’re on the feet. Erceg’s surprising knockout power is an interesting variable, especially when we consider all the wars Moreno has been through, but I believe the former champ should still be able to count on his legendary durability. 

I won’t be surprised if either guy has to weather some serious adversity at some point, but I do see their fight going the full five rounds, with Moreno doing more overall. 

Prediction: Moreno by unanimous decision

Lyle Fitsimmons: I guess I'm guilty of holding a grudge. I felt confident when Erceg arrived in the upper echelon and got himself a title fight, but he laid such a comprehensive egg in that spot that it makes me reticent to pick him. I've got reservations about just how many miles are on Brandon's odometer and I willingly concede to the possibility I look foolish here, but I'll go with him until Erceg proves me wrong about him.

Moreno by unanimous decision

Tom Taylor: Drew Dober is always must-see TV, but I don’t see this fight going well for him. For all his toughness, we have seen him finished on the feet and on the mat multiple times, and his opponent Manuel Torres is extremely dangerous in every phase of the sport. In fact, he has an even seven finishes by knockout or TKO, and seven by submission, and the bulk of those occurred in the first round. 

With the Mexican crowd behind him, I think it’ll be another first-round stop for Torres this weekend. He stings Dober early and finishes him with follow-up shots.

Prediction: Torres by TKO, Rd. 1

Lyle Fitzsimmons: I agree with Tom. For as good and exciting and good for the sport as guys like Dober are, it seems his results lately are less about him and more about how impressive it is when guys beat him. Torres is by no means infallible, but he's younger and he's been better lately, and he'll have the hometown fuel in his tank, too. That's enough for me.

Prediction: Torres by submission, Rd. 1

Tom Taylor: I’m kind of surprised Kelvin Gastelum is still in the UFC. Sure, he’s had some great moments in the Octagon, but he’s been extremely inconsistent lately, and in his last fight, had a completely disastrous weight cut for what feels like the millionth time. 

I would not be surprised at all if the promotion sends him packing if he loses to Joe Pyfer this weekend, but I actually think he can pull this one off. He’ll need to be careful early, but if he leans on his wrestling and his Octagon experience, I think he can drag his opponent into deep waters for a decision win. This strategy worked when Jack Hermansson fought Pyfer last year, and let’s not forget, Mexico City is at altitude. Gastelum has been in multiple five-rounders, and can probably count on his gas tank, but that may not be true for Pyfer. 

Prediction: Gastelum by unanimous decision

Lyle Fitzsimmons:I like the rationale Tom presented to pick Gastelum. He's a vet and a smart fighter and Pyfer was indeed taken into the deep water with Hermansson and didn't fare well. Can Gastelum pull that off in similar fashion? Certainly. But I'm not feeling it. Pyfer bounced back with a quick post-Hermansson finish in his last fight, and even though Gastelum's quality of opposition is much better, I'll go with youth.

Prediction: Pyfer by TKO, Rd. 2

Tom Taylor: I don’t see Raul Rosas Jr. getting anywhere near the UFC bantamweight title, but let’s call a spade a spade: this is another freebie for him. Morales has some good finishes on his record, but he’s lost in most of his Octagon appearances, including his last two. Unless Rosas is completely sleeping on the challenge ahead, he should win this one in style.

Prediction: Rosas Jr. by submission, Rd. 1

Lyle Fitzsimmons: It's not often that there's a 14-year age difference between UFC competitors. And when there is, it typically doesn't go well for the older guy. That's probably the case again here. Though my overriding image of Rosas is his loss rather than any of his wins, he's got to have enough to beat a journeyman like Morales or his push will quickly end.

Prediction: Rosas Jr. by submission, Rd. 1

Tom Taylor: I’ve got a good feeling about David Martinez. The Mexican prospect earned his UFC contract with a decision win over Xavier Franklin last year. That was impressive, but I’m even more impressed by the nine stoppage wins he scored before he earned his shot on Contender Series. 

His opponent, Saimon Oliveira, lost his first two UFC fights and was stopped in his latest. I don’t see this one going any better for him.

Prediction: Martinez by unanimous decision

Lyle Fitzsimmons:

Martinez hasn't lost a fight in four years across the Combate Global promotion and his Contender Series appearance last fall. Some quick KOs. Some longer fights. An impressive run, no matter how it's parsed. Oliveira, meanwhile, looks like exactly the type of fighter who arrives and quickly drifts into trial horse territory for as long as he stays.

Prediction: Martinez by TKO, Rd. 1.

Tom Taylor: I’m so happy to see more flyweight fights on UFC main cards. I’d take a clash of unranked flyweights over a clash of unranked heavyweights 10 times out of 10. This fight between Ronaldo Rodriguez and Kevin Borjas should explain why. 

Mexico’s Rodriguez is a very compelling prospect, with seven wins behind him, including two in the Octagon. His opponent, Peru’s Borjas, has not had anywhere near the same success, with losses in his first two Octagon bouts, but has a good track record when it comes to entertaining. This one will be good.

Rodriguez gets the tap, but Borjas makes it fun while it lasts.

Prediction: Rodriguez by submission, Rd. 2

Lyle Fitzsimmons: Rodriguez has the resume of a guy who could at least boost his status, if not climb into ranking territory at some point. He's won seven in a row since an initial Contender Series loss and done so by decisions, submissions and a TKO. I like that variety. Particularly against a guy who earned his pass on the Contender Series but has dropped two in a row since.

Prediction: Rodriguez by unanimous decision