Stock Up, Stock Down on MLB Trade Candidates for 2025 Deadline

Believe it or not, the 2025 MLB season has already been going for four full weeks and teams are just about 15 percent of the way through their schedules.

As such, it's not too early to check in with players who could be moved ahead of the July 31 trade deadline.

We're going to do stock checks on 10 in particular, a number of whom were heavily involved in trade rumors over the winter. Yet there are also some surprises in the bunch, including a slugger who could conceivably be available if the Atlanta Braves continue perform well short of expectations.

For simplicity's sake, we'll check these 10 players off in alphabetical order.

Age: 29

2025 Stats: 4 GS, 17.1 IP, 14 H (2 HR), 13 K, 10 BB, 7.27 ERA

Status: Signed through 2026, with 2027 team option

The Marlins only waited until early May to trade Luis Arraez last year, but they may not be as quick to send Sandy Alcantara out of town.

Their plan, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, is to hold onto the 2022 NL Cy Young Award winner "until the final days before the July 31 trade deadline." And with the way Alcantara is pitching, this may be the wise play.

The righty is still his old self in some ways, including with his ability to rack up ground balls. He has a 59.6 GB%, well above the league average of 42.4.

Yet there are also areas where he just doesn't look the same in his return from Tommy John surgery. Even setting aside the steady flow of free passes, his fastball is down 0.7 mph from his 2022 average and his Baseball Savant profile is in the blue (i.e., below average) for key performance indicators like whiff rate and exit velocity.

Sure, it was always reasonable to expect Alcantara to need time to work out the kinks. So far, though, progress is slow.

Stock: Down

Age: 34

2025 Stats: 22 G, 96 PA, 2 HR, 1 SB, .268 AVG, .375 OBP, .427 SLG

Status: Signed through 2027

It wasn't for lack of trying, but the Cardinals were just never able to find a taker for Nolan Arenado over the winter.

If interested parties were simply spooked, well, that is fair. He is owed $74 million through 2027—$10 million of which is on the Colorado Rockies—and he was only a 2-ish WAR player across 2023 and 2024. At his age, a decline like that ought to be irreversible.

That wouldn't seem to be the case now, and it is genuinely nice to see Arenado with 13 walks against just five strikeouts. That's not normally his jam, particularly where the free passes are concerned.

Three of those walks were intentional, though, and the state of his contact quality is not so great. He's in the bottom 10 percent of hitters with both his exit velocity and hard-hit rate.

Still, one is inclined to believe third base-needy teams are liking what they're seeing from Arenado on offense so far. And to nobody's surprise, he's still rating well defensively with plus-three Outs Above Average already.

Stock: Up

Age: 36

2025 Stats: 5 GS, 28.2 IP, 27 H (0 HR), 34 K, 6 BB, 1.88 ERA

Status: Signed through 2025

Though the Blue Jays have gotten off to a solid start at 12-12, FanGraphs still only gives them a 38.6 percent chance of playing in October.

As a pending free agent, Chris Bassitt is sure to hit the table if the Blue Jays fall out of the race. And while he's always good for innings, the extra dominance he's showing out of the gate is oddly believable.

After landing in the 18th percentile in 2024, he is in the 70th percentile with his whiff rate in 2025. He's only averaging 91.4 mph on his sinker, yet a lower release point seems to have put extra movement on basically all his pitches.

It's likely just a matter of time before hitters adjust to Bassitt's adjustment. And especially with just a 36.8 GB%, he isn't going to stay stuck on zero home runs forever.

All the same, he's probably already shot up wish lists for teams that figure to be in the market for a mid-rotation starter.

Stock: Up

Age: 27

2025 Stats: 24 G, 112 PA, 0 HR, 2 SB, .298 AVG, .339 OBP, .375 SLG

Status: Signed through 2025

Bo Bichette had a downright miserable year in 2024, playing in only 81 games and hitting .225 with minus-0.3 rWAR.

What he's doing now is more like it, and you could even say he hasn't broken all the way out yet.

With his strikeout percentage down from 19.0 to 14.3, one thing Bichette is doing is simply putting more balls in play. He's also hitting the ball hard, as he's firmly above average with his exit velocity (68th percentile) and hard-hit rate (80th percentile).

Accordingly, the home runs should come eventually. As it is, he already has a couple near-misses that stand out from the crowd.

With minus-two Outs Above Average on his defensive line, whether Bichette should be playing shortstop remains debatable. As with Trea Turner in 2021, though, it's possible a team could trade for him and immediately move him to second base.

Stock: Up

Age: 32

2025 Stats: 5 GS, 26.1 IP, 30 H (3 HR), 23 K, 12 BB, 4.44 ERA

Status: Signed through 2027, with 2028 vesting option

Luis Castillo is another guy who was a regular in trade rumors throughout the winter, but the Mariners just couldn't get an offer they liked for him.

It's certainly harder to imagine Seattle trading "La Piedra" now. The team is a contender at 12-10, and president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto ought to be gun-shy about moving yet another well-liked pitcher amid a competitive season.

According to Nightengale, however, one team has already reached out about Castillo. That at least tells us interest in him is still out there, though how long that will remain the case is a fair question.

He showed signs of being past his prime in 2024, and they're back in 2025. He's down to the 61st percentile with his fastball velocity, and that is one of his more flattering metrics. Suffice it to say he's not missing many bats and getting hit hard.

True, Castillo typically is a slow starter. But after what happened in 2024 (i.e., 1.8 rWAR and 101 ERA+), it's much easier to chalk this up to age than to rust.

Stock: Down

Age: 29

2025 Stats: 5 GS, 25.1 IP, 30 H (2 HR), 30 K, 8 BB, 6.04 ERA

Status: Signed through 2025

With the Padres tied atop MLB with a 17-7 record, it's even harder to imagine them moving Dylan Cease than it is to imagine the Mariners moving Castillo.

FanGraphs still only gives the Padres a 54.0 percent chance of making the playoffs, though, and the NL West has not one, not two, but three teams that could make life difficult for them. Stranger things have happened, in other words.

In any case, Cease's ERA makes his start to the season look worse than it actually is. He's been solid in four of his five outings, with the one exception being a nine-run dud against the Athletics on April 8.

He is averaging a sturdy 96.8 mph on his fastball, and the relatively low 35.4 whiff rate on his slider is unlikely to last. He might be throwing it a little too hard at 88.9 mph, but you'd rather have a guy have to take velo off than try to add any.

In the meantime, Cease's whiff (55th percentile) and strikeout (71st percentile) rates are already above average. And don't worry, he's struck out 12 and walked only two in two starts since shaving his beard.

Stock: Up

Age: 30

2025 Stats: 8 G, 8.0 IP, 5 H (0 HR), 10 K, 8 BB, 2.25 ERA

Status: Signed through 2025

Whereas the Cardinals actually tried to trade Arenado over the winter, they reportedly shut down overtures toward Ryan Helsley.

This seemed an odd choice, given Helsley was coming off a 49-save season and the Cardinals never made any secret of their upcoming transitionary phase. As such, the potential for the strategy to backfire in 2025 was real.

It seems as if they'll be OK, though.

Helsley has mostly been terrific so far, with his only blemish being a nightmare outing in Boston on April 6 that saw him walk four batters. He's otherwise sitting at 98.8 mph with his fastball and has yet to be barreled even once.

All told, seven of the righty's eight outings have been scoreless and three of the five hits off him didn't even achieve "hard-hit" status at 95 mph off the bat. All signs therefore say this is still one of MLB's elite closers.

Stock: Up

Age: 34

2025 Stats: 20 G, 86 PA, 4 HR, 0 SB, .317 AVG, .500 OBP, .540 SLG

Status: Signed through 2025

With a 9-7 record since an 0-7 start, the Braves are coming around. It's therefore advised to take their inclusion here with a grain of salt.

This said, their odds of making the playoffs at FanGraphs have already gone way down. They're sitting at 62.8 percent after opening the year at 92.5 percent.

Should the Braves continue to lag behind in a tough NL East, Marcell Ozuna would be an obvious piece to offload at the deadline. He's a pending free agent, after all, and a potential impact bat for a market that could be desperate for all it can get.

After slamming 79 home runs across 2023 and 2024, he is still launching rockets at the outset of 2025. His exit velocity is in the 97th percentile at 95.3 mph and up from an already impressive 92.1 mph in 2024.

Ozuna also has 23 walks against 18 strikeouts, amounting to confirmation that the improved discipline he showed in 2024 has only gotten better. He's one of the true professional hitters in MLB today.

Stock: Up

Age: 27

2025 Stats: 21 G, 88 PA, 2 HR, 7 SB, .151 AVG, .267 OBP, .260 SLG

Status: Signed through 2025, with 2026-27 team options

There was apparently heavy trade interest in Luis Robert Jr. over the winter, with White Sox GM Chris Getz even reveling in it at one point.

The Pale Hose nonetheless chose to hold onto Robert, which was always an inherently risky choice. On the one hand, perhaps his value would increase after a down 2024 season; on the other, perhaps not.

It's the latter that is playing out now, and it isn't easy to make excuses for him.

Sure, Robert's strikeout and walk rates have trended in positive directions relative to 2024. But he's also lost 3.8 mph off his average exit velocity, and even improvements to his swing-and-miss tendencies still only have him in the 23rd percentile with both his whiff and strikeout rates.

With all this coming on the heels of a .657 OPS and 1.4 rWAR in 2024, it sure looks like the White Sox may have overplayed their hand.

Stock: Down

Age: 31

2025 Stats: 5 GS, 28.0 IP, 27 H (2 HR), 26 K, 11 BB, 4.50 ERA

Status: Signed through 2025

Framber Valdez looked like a trade candidate heading into the winter, but not so much after the Astros traded Kyle Tucker. One blockbuster was apparently enough.

Houston is now trying to make the playoffs for a ninth year in a row, but the team started on shaky ground and it hasn't really leveled out. The Astros are 12-11, and FanGraphs gives them a 51.9 percent chance of playing in October.

Valdez is still getting ground balls to the tune of a 52.5 GB%, and he's gone at least five innings in four of his starts even though he has yet to throw 100 pitches in any of them.

And yet, it's not a great look that he's already had two dud starts, allowing five runs in five innings on April 2 and seven runs in four innings on April 14. Further, his strikeout and walk rates are going in the wrong direction.

Though his is still better than most, Valdez's ground-ball rate is also down significantly from 2024. If we were a rival team, these things would have us on guard.

Stock: Down

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.