Way-Too-Early 2025 MLB Playoff and World Series Predictions

As the old saying goes in MLB, you can't win a pennant in April, but you sure can lose one. While both the Colorado Rockies and Chicago White Sox may have already exactly that, there's a fierce battle between everyone else now that we're ankles deep into the 2025 campaign.

Our original "way-too-early" predictions published on Halloween morning after the Los Angeles Dodgers finished off the New York Yankees in the 2024 World Series. They're not looking bad at all thus far.

Of the 15 teams we had projected for at least 85 wins, 14 rank among the 15 teams with the shortest betting odds of making the postseason. Picking Cincinnati to finish one game ahead of Chicago as the NL Central champ and only projecting Boston for 80 wins are the two mostly regrettable "from before free agency even began" prognostications, and even those aren't exactly out of the question.

Still, now that we're about one-seventh of the way through the regular season, it's time for some updated predictions.

At this time last season, nine of the 12 teams who ultimately made the playoffs were in the "if the regular season ended today" bracket. However, Houston was 10 games below .500 and dead last in its division before roaring back to win the AL West. So there's still plenty of season left to be played, Atlanta and Baltimore fans.

Biggest Positive Surprise: Trevor Story still has it

Over the past two seasons, it looked as though Trevor Story had gone the way of Kris Bryant and Anthony Rendon—wildly expensive, scarcely healthy and barely even worth playing when available. Between 2023 and 2024, Boston paid him $42.5 million for 69 games, five home runs and a .630 OPS.

But since the beginning of April, Story has given the Red Sox five home runs and four stolen bases in just 17 games played, posting a .984 OPS and emerging as a slightly viable candidate for AL MVP.

Save for Garrett Crochet, Boston's revamped pitching staff has been a disappointment, still allowing 4.7 runs per game. If Story stays healthy for a change, though, the Red Sox may well end up with the most potent offense in the American League if/when Jarren Duran and Triston Casas start to wake up.

Biggest Negative Surprise: Baltimore's rotation is a hot mess

Maybe this one shouldn't be a surprise. After all, the O's did decide that replacing Corbin Burnes with 41-year-old Charlie Morton and 35-year-old MLB rookie Tomoyuki Sugano was an OK plan.

But when Grayson Rodriguez started experiencing elbow/triceps soreness in spring training, it quickly became apparent just how thin this rotation had become. With Zach Eflin (lat) now also on the IL, yikes.

This has devolved into a 2024 Texas Rangers situation where the Orioles' rotation might be stout in August/September once it gets healthy, only for it to be too little, too late to salvage a spot in the playoffs.

Updated AL East Projections

1. New York Yankees
2. Boston Red Sox (wild card)
3. Baltimore Orioles
4. Toronto Blue Jays
5. Tampa Bay Rays

Biggest Positive Surprise: Spencer Torkelson ranking top 10 in majors in OPS

Spencer Torkelson, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2020 MLB draft, didn't even rank top 10 among Tigers in OPS last season. He ended up with a mark of .669, cobbled together in 92 games surrounding a stint of more than two months down at Triple-A Toledo.

When the Tigers signed Gleyber Torres this winter, the assumption was that Colt Keith would move to first base with Torkelson hitting the trade block.

Instead, Detroit kept Tork, he flourished in spring training to the tune of five home runs and a .340 batting average, and he has carried that momentum into the regular season. He entered play Tuesday leading the Tigers in runs, hits, home runs, RBI and walks, and he ranked ninth in the majors with an OPS of 1.011.

Biggest Negative Surprise: The Minnesota Twins in general

Personally, no huge surprise here. I was down on the Twins all winter and couldn't understand how they entered the year as the favorite to win the AL Central. They finished fourth in the division last year and almost indisputably got worse this offseason, replacing Carlos Santana and Max Kepler with Ty France and Harrison Bader, and that's about it.

With that said, I didn't think they'd be "third-worst record in the majors" bad, with both Carlos Correa and Willi Castro providing replacement-level production while the entire starting rotation struggles.

They'll rally to some extent and might end up with a .500 record if both Royce Lewis and Pablo Lopez get healthy and start doing their thing. Winning the division might be a pipe dream, though.

Updated AL Central Projections

1. Detroit Tigers
2. Cleveland Guardians
3. Minnesota Twins
4. Kansas City Royals
5. Chicago White Sox

Biggest Positive Surprise: Breakout stars from the projected basement dwellers

Heading into the season, there was a very clear line in the sand between the AL West's trio of haves and its pair of have-nots. The A's and Angels were supposed to duke it out for fourth and fifth place in the division.

But with Tyler Soderstrom bashing an MLB-best nine home runs for the former and Kyren Paris coming out of nowhere for five dingers, five stolen bases and a .965 OPS for the latter, the AL West was surprisingly the first division to have all five teams win at least 10 games.

Each 23-year-old infielder had amounted to negative WAR while playing sparingly over the past two seasons, but they have been early revelations for teams who maybe aren't going to be as woeful as anticipated. (Though both did already play and win a series against the White Sox.)

Biggest Negative Surprise: Houston can't hit

By now, we know better than to write off Houston amid a slow start. The Astros began 7-10 in 2021, 7-9 in 2022, 7-9 in 2023 and even 7-19 last season, yet they still won this division in all four years. So, the Astros starting 7-9 this year and not even managing a two-game winning streak until this past weekend isn't a major concern.

Could someone on this team start hitting, though?

As of Tuesday morning, 73 players had hit at least four home runs, but this team with Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, Yainer Diaz and Christian Walker did not produce a single one of them.

Only Altuve (batting .298 with a .745 OPS) is north of .270 or .730, respectively. The Astros were held to three runs or fewer in 15 of their first 21 games.

Updated AL West Projections

1. Texas Rangers
2. Houston Astros (wild card)
3. Seattle Mariners (wild card)
4. Athletics
5. Los Angeles Angels

Biggest Positive Surprise: Miami isn't half bad?

It feels every bit as smoke and mirrors-y as it did in 2023 when they snuck into the postseason with a negative-57 run differential, but raise your hand if your preseason predictions had Miami sitting two games ahead of Atlanta 23 games into the season. (Better yet, raise your hand if you think you could name even half of the Marlins' 12 team leaders in plate appearances.)

Lo and behold, there they sit at nearly .500 despite playing 14 of their first 21 games against the Mets, Phillies, Braves and Diamondbacks.

Matt Mervis is leading the way with six home runs after a few rough stints in the majors with the Cubs over the past two seasons. Kyle Stowers entered the year with a .600 OPS in 117 career games played, but he's at .847 and now entrenched in the heart of the order. And Max Meyer, the No. 3 overall pick in the 2020 draft, has been exquisite through five starts with a 2.10 ERA and a 12.3 K/9.

If Sandy Alcantara can get back to his former Cy Young form, the Marlins might just hang onto what we've long assumed will be one of the top trade chips on the move this summer.

Biggest Negative Surprise: Atlanta might not be good

Between a brutal opening schedule and not having Ronald Acuña Jr. or Spencer Strider available out of the gates, there was always a distinct possibility that Atlanta could get out to a rough start to the year. Even the most pessimistic projections didn't have things going this poorly, though.

Atlanta lost Jurickson Profar for 80 games for violating MLB's performance-enhancing drugs policy, possibly lost Reynaldo López for the year and had Strider make just one appearance in his return from Tommy John surgery before landing back on the IL with a hamstring injury.

Atlanta has been mostly competent since its 0-7 start against the Padres and Dodgers, but there are holes throughout the lineup and the pitching staff that will make it challenging to battle back for a spot in the postseason.

Updated NL East Projections

1. New York Mets
2. Philadelphia Phillies (wild card)
3. Atlanta Braves
4. Miami Marlins
5. Washington Nationals

Biggest Positive Surprise: Cubs on pace for 1,000 runs

There's virtually no chance they'll maintain this torrid pace, as it has been almost two decades since the last time a team (2007 New York Yankees) even got to 950 runs in a season. But with 156 runs through their first 25 games, the Cubs have been red-hot on offense. They're on pace for 1,011 runs, led by offseason acquisition Kyle Tucker and backup catcher Carson Kelly inexplicably posting a 1.511 OPS.

Notably, it hasn't all been sunshine and roses for Chicago. They've already lost Justin Steele to a season-ending surgery, leaving their rotation a bit in shambles. They've also put up all those runs despite yet again dealing with a gaping hole at the hot corner, with rookie Matt Shaw not making anywhere near the immediate impact they were hoping for. As a result, they're merely 15-10 in spite of their relentless bats.

Then again, starting 15-10 and scoring at will while playing at least six games each against the Dodgers, Padres and Diamondbacks is mighty impressive. If they stay even a little hot, they ought to run away with this division from May 12 through June 5 when they play 21 consecutive games against the Marlins, White Sox, Reds, Rockies and Nationals.

Biggest Negative Surprise: Cincinnati's first base situation

Three players have made starts at first base for the Reds this season: Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Jeimer Candelario and Spencer Steer.

All three presently have a bWAR of negative-0.7 or worse, as well as a sub-.500 OPS. They're batting a combined 26-for-193 (.135) for the year. And Encarnacion-Strand is currently on the IL with lower-back inflammation.

In spite of that massive hole in the lineup, the Reds have the fourth-best run differential in the majors. Unfortunately, they're only 11-13, as most of that plus-28 mark came from their 24-2 win over Baltimore last weekend.

Updated NL Central Projections

1. Chicago Cubs
2. Cincinnati Reds
3. Milwaukee Brewers
4. St. Louis Cardinals
5. Pittsburgh Pirates

Biggest Positive Surprise: Nick Pivetta for NL Cy Young

Throughout his eight years with Philadelphia and Boston, Nick Pivetta was...serviceable.

Of the 27 pitchers to log at least 1,000 innings pitched from 2017-24, his 4.76 ERA was the worst, as he was north of 4.00 in each of those seasons. And of his 178 games started, he went at least seven scoreless innings nine times, never once accomplishing the feat more than twice in a single season.

So, Pivetta has naturally logged seven scoreless innings in three of his first five starts with the Padres, boasting a 1.20 ERA and an NL-best 0.77 WHIP for the year. Aside from Fernando Tatis Jr., he has been the biggest reason why the Padres entered Wednesday tied with the Mets for the best record in baseball.

Biggest Negative Surprise: Arizona's starting rotation

While the 14-9 Diamondbacks would be tied for the best record in the American League, that mark is only good enough for fourth place in the NL West, where it appears margin for error is going to be nonexistent this year.

That means Arizona needs more from its starting rotation.

Brandon Pfaadt has been great, but all three of Zac Gallen, Eduardo Rodriguez and Corbin Burnes entered Wednesday with a 0.0 bWAR and an ERA north of 4.00. Throw in Jordan Montgomery, who's out for the year recovering from Tommy John surgery, and Arizona is spending $91 million on four starting pitchers who are amounting to effectively nothing thus far.

Gallen did have one spectacular start against the Yankees, racking up 13 strikeouts in 6.2 scoreless innings of work in a performance that won't be forgotten in the Bronx when he hits free agency this winter. But the Gallen/Rodriguez/Burnes trio is 2-6 overall through 13 starts.

Updated NL West Projections

1. Los Angeles Dodgers
2. San Diego Padres (wild card)
3. Arizona Diamondbacks (wild card)
4. San Francisco Giants
5. Colorado Rockies

Wild Card Series

NL1: No. 4 San Diego Padres over No. 5 Philadelphia Phillies
NL2: No. 6 Arizona Diamondbacks over No. 3 Chicago Cubs

AL1: No. 4 Boston Red Sox over No. 5 Houston Astros
AL2: No. 3 Detroit Tigers over No. 6 Seattle Mariners

Division Series

NL1: No. 1 Los Angeles Dodgers over No. 4 San Diego Padres
NL2: No. 6 Arizona Diamondbacks over No. 2 New York Mets

AL1: No. 1 New York Yankees over No. 4 Boston Red Sox
AL2: No. 3 Detroit Tigers over No. 2 Texas Rangers

Championship Series

NLCS: No. 1 Los Angeles Dodgers over No. 6 Arizona Diamondbacks
ALCS: No. 3 Detroit Tigers over No. 1 New York Yankees

World Series

No. 1 Los Angeles Dodgers over No. 3 Detroit Tigers

(For what it's worth, these ALCS, NLCS and World Series predictions are exactly the same as what I had back on Halloween. Can't promise that will remain the case all season, but it works for now.)