Updated 2025 MLB MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year Odds and Picks

At this time one year ago, eventual NL Cy Young winner Chris Sale was out to a bit of a sluggish start, AL MVP Aaron Judge was batting below .200 and NL Rookie of the Year Paul Skenes was still dazzling Triple-A crowds.

'Twas a great reminder that full-season awards are neither won nor lost in April.

On the flip side of that coin, though, NL MVP Shohei Ohtani was batting around .370, AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal was mowing down everything in his path and AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil was making the most of a spot in the rotation that only opened up because Gerrit Cole was injured.

It certainly doesn't hurt to start hot.

With one month of the 2025 MLB regular season in the books, let's take a look at updated odds for the six major awards, highlighting the early favorite, the top challenger, an intriguing sleeper and our picks for each.

Statistics and betting odds are current as of the start of play on Friday, the latter courtesy of DraftKings.

The Favorite: Jacob Wilson, SS, Athletics (-110)

Wilson hit .412 at Grand Canyon the year he was drafted sixth overall (2023) and proceeded to hit .433 in 53 minor league games played in 2024 before getting called up toward the end of last summer. And, as advertised, he might flirt with a batting title as a rookie, currently hitting .330 with a pair of home runs.

Top Challenger: Kristian Campbell, 2B, Red Sox (+200)

Campbell had 20 home runs and 24 stolen bases across three minor league levels last season, and the Red Sox clearly believed he could thrive in the majors, breaking camp with him as their primary second baseman instead of putting Alex Bregman at second and leaving Rafael Devers at the hot corner. Thus far, they've been rewarded for their faith, as the true-blue rookie is batting .286 with three home runs and quite a few walks drawn.

Intriguing Sleeper: Chandler Simpson, OF, Rays (+3000)

It has been nearly four decades since the last time someone stole 80 bases in a single season at the MLB level, but Simpson swiped 198 bags in 225 games played in the minors between 2023 and 2024. He's probably not going to hit a single home run, but he gets on base a ton and will run basically any time there's a base open ahead of him.

The Pick: Chandler Simpson

Both Wilson and Campbell have gotten out to solid starts and are the deserving front runners here. But Simpson might make history with a franchise that let Carl Crawford run as much as he darn well pleased once upon a time. If he stays healthy and flirts with 100 stolen bases, Simpson could (pun intended) run away with this crown.

The Favorite: Roki Sasaki, RHP, Dodgers (+175)

After averaging 11.5 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 in his four seasons in Japan, Sasaki is sitting at 7.3 in each department through five MLB starts. With a 3.20 ERA for the World Series favorites, though, it looks like his race to lose, even as they have eased him into the swing of things with limited pitches and at least six days rest between each start.

Top Challenger: Dylan Crews, OF, Nationals (+330)

Through 16 team games, Crews was batting .106 with 18 strikeouts and just five total bases. During his recent eight-game hitting streak, however, he struck out just once while hitting three home runs. He has also stolen six bases on the year. It might not make much of a difference in the standings this season, but between Crews and James Wood, things are starting to look up for the Nationals.

Intriguing Sleeper: Hyeseong Kim, UTIL, Dodgers (+6000)

Kim has yet to make his MLB debut, but not debuting until mid-May last season didn't stop Paul Skenes from winning NL ROY with room to spare. And Kim has been faring pretty well at Triple-A Oklahoma City, with four home runs, 10 stolen bases and a .784 OPS. That call should be coming any day now.

The Pick: Bubba Chandler, RHP, Pirates (+900)

Between the end of last season and the beginning of this one, Chandler has made 11 starts at Triple-A Indianapolis, logging 54.2 IP with a 1.81 ERA and a 12.7 K/9. Got to believe he'll be pitching alongside Skenes very soon, at which point it's possible both Rookies of the Year will be named Chandler, as Rays speedster Chandler Simpson is a real threat in the AL.

The Favorite: Garrett Crochet, LHP, Red Sox (+165)

Boston gave up what are now MLB.com's Nos. 2, 5, 8 and 17 prospects in the White Sox farm system to acquire Crochet, and subsequently signed him to a six-year, $170M extension. But so far, he has been worth it, making six starts with a 1.95 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 10.7 K/9, including twice shutting down his former team. He arguably should have started the All-Star Game last season, and he might get that honor this time around.

Top Challenger: Tarik Skubal, LHP, Tigers (+425)

The reigning AL Cy Young winner started a bit slow with seven earned runs allowed in his first 10.2 innings of work. However, Skubal went six scoreless against the Yankees and seven scoreless against the Brewers across his next two starts, looking more than ready to defend that crown.

Intriguing Sleeper: Kris Bubic, LHP, Royals (+4500)

Long-term durability is a major question mark with Bubic after he missed almost the entire 2023 season due to Tommy John surgery before returning as a reliever last summer. Already in five starts, he has logged more innings than he did in either of those two seasons. Four of those five starts were of the quality variety, though, as Bubic has a 1.45 ERA—plus a 2.38 FIP that suggests he might be for real.

The Pick: Tarik Skubal

Crochet has been outstanding, but if it ain't broke, don't fix it. And Skubal definitely ain't broke. He's actually throwing a little bit faster than last season and currently has a sub-3.00 FIP for what would be the fourth consecutive year if he can maintain it. The American League hasn't produced a back-to-back Cy Young winner since Pedro Martinez in 1999-2000, but that just means we're overdue, right?

The Favorite: Paul Skenes, RHP, Pirates (+260)

As if Skenes wasn't already enough of a phenom, he has added a conventional sinker to his deep arsenal. (He also showcased a new cutter in spring training, but we haven't seen it yet during the regular season.) That extra offering has made him even more unhittable, boasting a 0.80 WHIP with just one home run allowed through 31.1 innings pitched.

Top Challenger: Yoshinobu Yamamoto, RHP, Dodgers (+350)

Yamamoto entered Friday's start against the Pirates on a scoreless streak of 22 innings pitched since allowing a third-inning HR to Gleyber Torres back in late March. He hasn't exactly been shutting down weak opponents, either, going at least six scoreless against the Phillies, Cubs and Rangers in succession. He had a 2.53 ERA after his initial dud last season, and it appears he was just getting warmed up.

Intriguing Sleeper: MacKenzie Gore, LHP, Nationals (+6000)

In 2024, the defense behind Gore did him no favors, resulting in 21 unearned runs allowed. No other pitcher in the majors had more than 14. Evidently, however, that was precisely the motivation he needed to start taking matters into his own hands by striking out way more hitters. Twice already this season, Gore has fanned 13 batters in a start, leading the majors with 53 strikeouts and a 13.6 K/9.

The Pick: Hunter Greene, RHP, Reds (+500)

Dating back to June 30 of last season, Greene has made 15 starts with a 1.53 ERA and 10.3 K/9, this despite making eight of those 15 starts at the Great American Launching Pad. He had a rough outing last weekend in Baltimore, but entered that one with an 0.98 ERA for the year after three straight gems. This might be the year he finally becomes a household name for something more flattering than vomiting on the mound.

The Favorite: Aaron Judge, OF, Yankees (-600)

In posting a 218 wRC+ in 2024, Judge had one of the most dominant seasons in MLB history, winning AL MVP unanimously. So far, however, he has been even better this year, batting .415 and "OPSing" a ludicrous 1.247. It was a 1A/1B race between Judge and Bobby Witt Jr. for betting favorite throughout the winter, but Judge seems to already be in "only an injury could stop him from winning it" territory.

Top Challenger: Bobby Witt Jr., SS, Royals (+900)

For as incredible as Judge has been to date, Witt is at least keeping things interesting by yet again playing the role of "basically Kansas City's entire offense." Only two (solo) home runs thus far, but 30 hits, 12 extra-base hits, eight stolen bases and quality defense at shortstop all resonate for a player seeking to join 1995-97 Barry Bonds as the only back-to-back-to-back member of the 30 HR/30 SB club.

Intriguing Sleeper: Cal Raleigh, C, Mariners (+7000)

This is already such a two-horse race between Judge and Witt that no one else is listed at shorter than +2500 odds. For anyone to legitimately enter the conversation here, that player is probably going to need to out-homer Judge, which, you know, good luck with that. But Raleigh is on the short list of a dozen players who have hit at least 100 dingers since the beginning of 2022, and he's already tied for the MLB lead in that department. Maybe the Big Dumper keeps it up.

The Pick: Aaron Judge

At this point last season, Judge was batting .178 with four home runs, only to lead the majors with 58 home runs, 144 RBI and 133 walks when all was said and done. This year, the two-time AL MVP is already red hot and might start getting the Barry Bonds treatment if Aaron Boone keeps putting Cody Bellinger directly behind him in the lineup.

The Favorite: Shohei Ohtani, DH, Dodgers (+290)

While we patiently wait to find out if and when this three-time MVP will take the mound again, he's contributing at a level that would perhaps best be described as: not as great as the past two seasons, but still doggone good compared to most mortals. He already has six home runs, five stolen bases and an almost best in the majors 24 runs scored.

Top Challenger: Corbin Carroll, OF, Diamondbacks (+390)

The 2023 NL Rookie of the Year started out in a prolonged sophomore slump last year, batting .210 when he finally hit his third home run of the season in Arizona's 90th game. This year, Carroll has been hot pretty much since day one, already clubbing nine home runs and spending most of April with an OPS north of 1.000. He has 40 HR and 40 SB talent, and just might pace Arizona to its first division title since 2011.

Intriguing Sleeper: Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, Cubs (+9000)

If it's going to be a Cub that wins, it's most likely going to be Kyle Tucker (+350), who is making the most thus far of what may well be his only season within the friendly confines of Wrigley Field. But why not PCA for MVP? The young five-tool star really ought to have won a Gold Glove last season, and he's hitting a whole heck of a lot better this year, entering Friday with an .888 OPS, five home runs and 10 stolen bases. Decent chance he leads the NL Central champ in wins above replacement.

The Pick: Fernando Tatis Jr., OF, Padres (+400)

It makes total sense for Ohtani to still be the betting favorite for NL MVP, but Tatis is just about indisputably the NL MVP so far. Through 22 team games, Tatis had an OPS of 1.128, on pace for 62 home runs and 54 stolen bases. He's also doing a stellar job in right field, that "catch and mid-slide throw" sequence during the Sunday Night Baseball game one of the more impressive things you'll ever see. If the Padres continue to hang around atop the NL West standings, Tatis ought to remain a great MVP candidate.