6 Early Predictions for the 2025 MLB Trade Deadline

It goes without saying that a lot can change between May 1 and July 31, the date of MLB's trade deadline.

With that said, we have a month's worth of games as evidence as we try to predict what the landscape will look like when trade season really ramps up.

Here are six early predictions of what will happen when the hot stove is blazing later this summer.

Sandy Alcántara has an 8.31 ERA in his first six starts in 2025 after missing the entirety of last season recovering from Tommy John surgery. He obviously needs to get back on track to be the top name available this summer, especially since he's under contract through 2026 with an affordable $21 million option for 2027.

But while the Marlins don't have to trade Alcántara, if he's pitching well, the guess here is that president of baseball operations Peter Bendix will move the former NL Cy Young Award winner for a slew of prospects.

While the New York Yankees, San Diego Padres and New York Mets are among the other contenders who could stand to add a front-line pitcher, the Cubs are the most motivated to be aggressive.

They've lost Justin Steele for the year to elbow surgery. And as much as they surely hope to retain Kyle Tucker beyond 2025, they're only guaranteed one season with the star outfielder because he'll have plenty of suitors in free agency in the offseason.

President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer will have to give up more than he's comfortable with to obtain Alcántara, but he would be getting a workhorse for up to three postseason runs.

Chicago entered this season with seven prospects in MLB Pipeline's Top 100. Third baseman Matt Shaw probably isn't going anywhere, but any of right-handed pitcher Cade Horton, outfielder Owen Caissie and catcher Moisés Ballesteros could make sense as part of a trade return for Miami.

What would a trade deadline be without Josh Bell getting dealt? In each of the last three summers, he has been traded.

2022: Washington Nationals to San Diego Padres

2023: Cleveland Guardians to Miami Marlins

2024: Marlins to Arizona Diamondbacks

The 32-year-old has had a slow start in his second go-around with the Nationals. But he's making just $6 million this season on a one-year deal, and history tells us that there will be multiple contenders interested in a 1B/DH who hits from both sides and has pop when the trade deadline rolls around.

Nolan Arenado declined to waive his no-trade clause last winter for a chance to join the Houston Astros, so there's no guarantee that even if the St. Louis Cardinals find a trade partner for him this summer that the deal will go through.

With that said, the eight-time All-Star has a .782 OPS, which would represent a relative bounce-back from his .719 mark a year ago. This may not be the peak version of Arenado, but he can provide pop and remains a tremendous fielder, with three defensive runs saved already in 2025.

Arenado does have a pair of seasons remaining on the eight-year, $260 million deal that he signed with the Colorado Rockies. But while he'll count $25.55 million against the luxury-tax threshold in 2026 and 2027, his deal is backloaded. Arenado will make a more modest $31 million for his age-35 and -36 seasons.

It seems like all great Rockies eventually end up spending time with the Yankees, and Arenado would give New York an upgrade over the .705 OPS that Oswaldo Cabrera has produced. This deal would also reunite him with Paul Goldschmidt, as the Yankees try to make a deep playoff run for the second time in as many seasons.

Given how thin the starting pitching market projects to be—especially if the Miami Marlins hold on to Alcántara—Pablo López could become one of the most attractive names available if the Twins are willing to consider offers for the 29-year-old righty.

López is only in the second season of a four-year, $73.5 million deal, so the Twins absolutely could keep him. But prior to a recent hot streak, the Twins had been really underwhelming. They could very well be sellers, although it's unclear exactly what the market would be for players with the injury histories, and contractual commitments, of Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton. So trading López might be the best way to replenish the farm system if the Twins want to pivot.

Who would be a fit? Well, probably just about every team in contention. We previously mentioned the Cubs, Mets, Yankees and Padres as possible fits for Alcántara. Those teams would make sense for López, should he be available, as could the Atlanta Braves, San Francisco Giants and Houston Astros.

Usually when you're a team headed for 100 losses (and only saying 100 is probably being generous), you can at least get excited about the potential trade return that you will get for your veterans.

The problem on the South Side is that the White Sox traded Garrett Crochet in the offseason, and they've lost veteran lefty Martín Pérez for a significant chunk of time with a flexor tendon strain.

To make matters worse, Luis Robert Jr. is hitting .152 with a .547 OPS. He is healthy, and has stolen 10 bases already. But since hitting 38 home runs with an .857 OPS in 2023, Robert has hit .210 with a .636 OPS. Robert's deal once looked team-friendly, but he's making $15 million right now and has $20 million club options for 2026 and 2027. Teams would probably view him as a buy-low rental. And if that's the case, the White Sox don't have much motivation to trade him other than some minimal financial relief.

General manager Chris Getz better hope that Robert A) heats up and B) stays healthy, because if not, there's not going to be much for the lowly White Sox to offload for the promise of a better future this summer.

USA Today's Bob Nightengale reported last weekend that the Philadelphia Phillies and Diamondbacks are already interested in closer Ryan Helsley, who figures to be one of the crown jewels of the trade deadline if the transitioning Cardinals do indeed sell.

The Texas Rangers make as much sense as anyone. They allowed Kirby Yates and José Leclerc to walk in free agency last winter, while David Robertson remains a free agent. Thus far, Luke Jackson, Chris Martin, Hoby Milner and Robert Garcia have helped the Rangers to be much better than anyone could have anticipated, as they are in the top 10 in bullpen ERA.

Still, it's fair to think that if the Rangers want to not only win the AL West but also have a chance at their second title in three years, they'll need to make a major addition to the bullpen this summer.

Ryan Helsley has had a bit of an uneven April but won the Trevor Hoffman Award as the National League's best reliever in 2024, when he posted a minuscule 2.04 ERA and racked up 49 saves.

While they have exciting young talent like Wyatt Langford, this is a team full of players in their 30s, such as Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Adolis García, Nathan Eovaldi and Jacob deGrom. 2025 is as good of an opportunity as this group is going to get to win a second World Series together. Acquiring Helsley would help to improve their odds.