NBA Playoff Power Rankings After Shocking Round 1 Developments

We're barreling toward the second round of the 2025 NBA playoffs. Six teams have already been eliminated, including one of the league's marquee franchises.

The Los Angeles Lakers entered their first-round series with the Minnesota Timberwolves as a minus-196 favorite ("or 66.2% implied probability"), and they're already entering an offseason packed with questions.

Without them, the Memphis Grizzlies, Miami Heat, Orlando Magic, Milwaukee Bucks and Detroit Pistons, the power rankings are streamlining in real time.

That helps, but we'll still need our tried and true criteria to sort through everyone still standing: recent performance, team and individual numbers, championship chances and plenty of subjectivity.

Previous Rank: 8

Net Rating: 1.3

The Houston Rockets staved off elimination, roughed up Stephen Curry, shot the lights out and generated 38 free-throw attempts in this week's Game 5 against the Golden State Warriors.

Repeating that performance two more times will be tough, though not impossible.

The Warriors have a significant experience advantage and two chances to get one win, but Houston is bigger, more physical and more athletic. If they can keep this series in "rock fight" territory, the Rockets can still make it to the second round.

Previous Rank: 10

Net Rating: 6.9

In their Game 5 victory that sent the Milwaukee Bucks packing this past week, the Indiana Pacers found themselves down seven with 39 seconds left in overtime.

Their win probability at that moment was just 2.1 percent.

But an Andrew Nembhard three, two Tyrese Haliburton drives (one of which was a three-point play) and a couple Bucks turnovers flipped those numbers. And the Pacers will now get their shot at the East's top team.

Indiana's placement here is affected by its next matchup. The Cleveland Cavaliers have been a juggernaut all season. And though the Pacers defense is better than it was in 2023-24, it's not good enough to stop the high-powered Cavs.

The Pacers' own offense, though, piloted by Haliburton, is good enough to keep this series competitive. It might even secure them a couple wins. But making the conference finals is going to be a lot tougher than it was for Indiana a year ago.

Previous Rank: 9

Net Rating: -1.3

The Golden State Warriors whiffed on an opportunity to close out the Houston Rockets this week, but there's no reason to panic (at least not yet).

Game 6 will be back in the Bay. Stephen Curry, Draymond Green and Jimmy Butler have all historically been better in the playoffs when playing at home. And that's one of two more chances Golden State has to end this series.

Plus, the Warriors have been in this specific situation before. Think back to them losing a closeout Game 5 against the Memphis Grizzlies in 2022 by 39 points. That year, they went home and ended the series in six.

They can lean on that experience this time around.

Previous Rank: 12

Net Rating: -4.1

The Denver Nuggets roared back from their series deficit to take a 3-2 lead heading into Thursday, but they failed to close out the Los Angeles Clippers in Game 6.

And now, although they're headed home for the decisive Game 7, it feels like they're outgunned and outmanned. Against Los Angeles, Denver has often looked too shallow and too light on perimeter defense.

But the Nuggets do have the best player in the world in Nikola Jokić. And if Jamal Murray can maintain the form that saw him drop 43 in Game 5, they have a puncher's chance to advance to the next round.

Previous Rank: 7

Net Rating: 0.4

It took another gritty, late fourth-quarter comeback, but the New York Knicks eliminated the Detroit Pistons on Thursday night behind a 40-point outburst from Jalen Brunson.

And after surviving one of the East's most athletic and physical teams, New York's prize is a second-round matchup with the Boston Celtics.

That certainly limits the Knicks' ceiling in these rankings, but with Brunson averaging 31.5 points and 8.2 assists in the postseason, they can at least keep things competitive.

Previous Rank: 4

Net Rating: 4.1

The Los Angeles Clippers have to survive on the road in Game 7 to even get to the second round, but their series against the Denver Nuggets should give fans a sliver of hope that they can push the Oklahoma City Thunder in the conference semifinals.

They have tons of perimeter defenders to throw at Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in Kawhi Leonard, Derrick Jones Jr. and Kris Dunn. Ivica Zubac can clog up the paint against just about any opposing offense. And the two-man game between him and James Harden would challenge OKC's perimeter defense.

Again, they still have to sneak past Denver. And they'll be far from a favorite against the Thunder, but the Clippers look like a real threat to join the legitimate title contenders tier.

Previous Rank: 5

Net Rating: 7.6

The Minnesota Timberwolves entered their first-round series against the Los Angeles Lakers as heavy underdogs.

But after bullying L.A. through a five-game series that ended this week, they now trail only the Oklahoma City Thunder among Western Conference teams in championship odds.

This team has one of the biggest, most complete starting fives in the league, with a steady-handed vet piloting the ship (Mike Conley), a point forward who can score in volume (Julius Randle), one of the game's best perimeter defenders (Jaden McDaniels), an elite rim protector (Rudy Gobert) and an ascending superstar (Anthony Edwards).

But that's not all. Naz Reid, Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Donte DiVincenzo all could have started for multiple playoff teams this year.

And though it still looks like OKC is the safest pick to represent the West in the Finals, the Timberwolves are starting to look like its biggest threat.

Previous Rank: 3

Net Rating: 33.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers didn't just beat the Miami Heat in their 1-8 matchup. They obliterated them.

In a four-game sweep, the Cavs won by an aggregate score of 504-382. The 122-point deficit is the largest for any single playoff round in NBA history.

And while that obviously says something about the Heat, the bigger takeaway should be how electrifying this Cleveland offense is.

The Boston Celtics are still the favorite to emerge from the East, but scoring and playmaking from Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland, defense from Jarrett Allen and the all-around contributions of Defensive Player of the Year Evan Mobley will give the Cavs a real shot at the upset.

Previous Rank: 2

Net Rating: 13.7

The Orlando Magic snuck a game off the Boston Celtics, but the reigning champs are on to the second round in their title defense.

And their stars should be inspiring plenty of confidence among their fans.

Jayson Tatum averaged 31.3 points, 11.3 rebounds and 5.3 assists against Orlando. Jaylen Brown added 23.0 points, 7.6 rebounds and 1.6 threes, while shooting 44.4 percent from deep.

As long as those two keep dominating, Boston should be in pretty solid shape in the second round.

Beyond then, it will likely need Jrue Holiday back. A hamstring injury limited him to two games against the Magic. And without his defense and spot-up shooting, beating the Cavaliers (assuming those two meet in the conference finals) may become a pretty big ask.

Previous Rank: 1

Net Rating: 19.8

The Oklahoma City Thunder crushed the Memphis Grizzlies in a first-round sweep, and they did it without getting a huge series from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (at least by his standards).

SGA's scoring average (32.7 to 27.8), true shooting percentage (63.7 to 52.1) and box plus/minus (11.5 to 6.4) all dropped pretty significantly from the regular season to the first round, and the Thunder still beat the Grizzlies by 78 points in the aggregate (tied for the 12th biggest margin of all time in a first-round series).

Gilgeous-Alexander isn't likely to stay at this level much longer (if at all), which should be a scary prospect for the rest of the league.

If Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren and the rest of the Thunder keep playing as well as they did against Memphis after SGA gets back to his regular-season production, OKC may be impossible to beat.