The 5 Biggest Potential Busts from the 2025 NHL Free Agency Class

The start of NHL free agency is two months away, so it isn't too early to start looking ahead at some of the storylines to follow. 

Free agency can be tricky for teams to navigate because it is often full of regret not long after a contract is signed, especially when you start getting into long-term, big-money deals.

You are spending top dollar on players who have probably already played their best hockey for somebody else, and you also never really know how a player will adapt or fit into a new situation. Things that look good on paper may not always work on the ice. 

With the salary cap set to rise significantly next season, teams will have even more money to spend, which could lead to shocking numbers in early July. Some of them might work; some of them won't. 

Here are five potential free agents who could be potential busts given the deals they could get this summer. 

The potential for John Tavares to be a bust comes down to the term and the money.

That could be said for every potential free agent and new contract, but it becomes even more important when you are talking about a player who is going to be 35 years old when their next contract begins.

He has still been very productive this season and had another great year offensively for the Maple Leafs.

But age has to be a concern, and you do not need to look any further than what happened with similar free agents in the 2024 class, specifically Jonathan Marchessault and Steven Stamkos following their long-term contracts with Nashville.

Both players were coming off 40-goal seasons and point-per-game performances in their mid-30s, were signed to be big-time finishers on a team that needed them and very quickly started to show their age this season. 

Those two contracts should be a potential warning sign for teams interested in signing Tavares to any sort of significant contract.

His Toronto teammate, Mitch Marner, might also be a potential bust in the eyes of some, depending on what you think of him as a playoff and big-game performer. But he should still have quite a few big years of top-tier offensive production ahead of him.

Marner will still probably be worth it for a while. Tavares might not have that remaining.

Aaron Ekblad is what happens when all of the worst possible free-agency outcomes meet at the same place.

Premium position? Check.

Rising salary cap so teams have extra money to spend? Check.

Not a lot of depth at this particular position in the free-agency class? Check.

The type of numbers that might make teams overvalue the overall impact and performance? Check.

This is not meant to be overly critical of Ekblad. He is a very good player and makes a big impact on his team. But all of the above circumstances would seem to make him a player who is just waiting to get a contract that exceeds his actual on-ice value and impact.

And that does not even get into the harsh reality that injuries have derailed the 29-year-old's career recently and forced him to miss significant time over the past five years.

You want Ekblad on your team, but you have to be careful with the contract.

Patrick Kane is still a big name and puts up decent box score stats, but there are a lot of empty calories in those numbers. 

The 36-year-old is still strong on the power play and can still make some plays. But his even-strength impacts have taken a significant hit in recent years (he had just 30 even-strength points this season). And while defense has never been a major part of his game, he has become nearly a complete zero when the puck is not on his stick.

It's very much a buyer-beware situation. Kane needs to be limited to power play and sheltered offensive roles. Asking him to still do the heavy lifting for an offense is expecting too much at this point.

Going to San Jose before the 2023-24 season was a perfect fit for Mikael Granlund in terms of getting his offense back on track and reboosting his value.

It also benefited the Sharks as they were able to pump up his value enough to trade him for a first-round pick to add to their rebuild. 

It could be a problem for teams in unrestricted free agency, though. 

At first glance, 126 points in 152 games over the past two seasons would probably make him an enticing option for an offense-needy team in free agency. Those are very strong numbers, and teams might pay handsomely for them on the open market.

But sometimes those numbers can be deceiving. Especially in the case of a player like Granlund, who is going to be 33 years old next season. And especially when those numbers came after a handful of down years.

A lot of those numbers were boosted by the simple fact that he got top-line minutes and top-line power-play time on a bad team for the better part of those two years. Somebody was going to get the points for the Sharks, and Granlund just happened to be in a position to get them with his ice-time and usage. 

After getting traded to Dallas, his offensive production slowed down significantly. That alone is not a huge red flag, but it should be taken into account, especially when combined with the fact that Granlund is not an overly strong two-way player.

A lot of his value is tied to his offensive production. A lot of his offensive production was tied to him getting a role he probably won't get on a better team. 

If you sign Granlund with the expectation of him being a depth player and pay him as such, it can work. If you sign him and expect him to be a 70-75 point player for a contender, you might be making a mistake.

You wouldn't anticipate Matt Grzelcyk getting a huge contract, but the concerns mentioned with Ekblad also apply here. 

This is an extremely thin crop of free agents for defensemen, and Grzelcyk had a big offensive season that saw him top the 40-point mark while playing an inflated power-play role alongside Sidney Crosby.

Granted, Grzelcyk, 31, did contribute to that power play and did help make it better. But if you are signing him with the expectation of being a 40-point scorer again or making that sort of impact, you are going to be disappointed.

His defense has significantly regressed, and he has to get big power-play minutes to produce the way you want him to. 

That is still a very good, very useful player. A lot of teams could find a spot for him. But the question and concern is whether somebody will overpay for it and expect more than is realistic.