Denver Nuggets vs. OKC Thunder Bold Predictions for Round 2 NBA Playoffs Series

After surviving a grueling seven-game war against the Los Angeles Clippers, the Denver Nuggets are headed to the conference semifinals to face a historically dominant Oklahoma City Thunder team that just set the record for single-season point differential.

Conventional wisdom suggests OKC should win this series relatively easily, but Denver has the best player in the world and loads of postseason experience.

The Nuggets can at least keep this competitive, even against a team that almost looks destined to win the title.

Predictions for how it will all play out can be found below.

Though he hasn't even left his prime yet, Jamal Murray already has the reputation of a playoff legend. And he backed that up in the first round, when he swung the series with a 43-point outburst in Game 5.

Few players across the history of the league seem more motivated by pressure ratcheting up than Denver's longtime point guard.

But OKC has five perimeter defenders (Alex Caruso, Jalen Williams, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cason Wallace and Lu Dort) who ranked in the 89th percentile or higher in defensive estimated plus-minus (one of the most trusted catch-all metrics in NBA front offices). And all five will get their shots at Murray.

Given his postseason track record, it's hard to imagine any team shutting him down completely. But this team has enough defense to at throw him off for significant chunks of the series.

Considering the fact that Nikola Jokić just averaged a triple-double for the entire regular season, and then followed that up averaging another one in the first round, this might not feel all that bold.

But again, this OKC defense is loaded. And that doesn't just apply to the perimeter.

The Thunder have a pair of lengthy, high-IQ rim protectors in Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein. They can at least shrink Jokić's passing lanes and obstruct his vision. Even Jaylin Williams can come off the bench and at least give him some fouls.

But none of those big men possess the unique combination of size, mobility, and perhaps most importantly, physicality that Ivica Zubac just threw at Jokić.

And while the Thunder might be able to throw some schematic wrinkles at the big man that will take him some time to process, he will process them. And that will keep the triple-doubles rolling in.

The Thunder mostly roasted the Memphis Grizzlies throughout their first-round sweep, but they did manage to hold Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to 27.8 points (nearly five shy of his regular-season average) on 40.2 percent shooting.

That feels like more of an outlier than a sign of things to come, though. Denver's perimeter defense held up fairly well against Kawhi Leonard and James Harden, but neither is as slithery in getting to the rim, as consistent in drawing fouls or as capable of getting to their spots as SGA is right now.

If anything, the sub-standard series against Memphis may signal that a breakout is on the way for Gilgeous-Alexander. And I'm feeling a big one.

At some point in this series, he'll top his playoff career high of 38 points. In fact, he'll clear 40.

Again, the numbers suggest OKC should cruise in this series. The Thunder are a whopping minus-900 favorite to advance to the conference finals.

They have the deeper roster. They won 18 more games in the regular season. They broke the single-season record for point differential. They can play big or small. They have the eventual MVP. They have waves of perimeter defense to throw at Murray.

Given all of the above, it would be fair to predict a sweep.

But Jokić and Murray are battle tested to the highest degree. They won it all just two years ago. Russell Westbrook looks as energized for a postseason as he has in years. Christian Braun is having a mini star breakout. And Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr. are filling in plenty of gaps.

Denver's experience and championship mettle won't allow it to go down without a fight.

For most of last season, it felt like the numbers were screaming at us that the Boston Celtics were going to win it all. And they of course did.

In 2024-25, the Thunder obliterated a lot of the same indicators that pointed to Boston in 2023-24.

They set the record for most double-digit victories in a season with 54. They crushed the record for simple rating system (which combines strength of schedule with point differential).

And each of the five teams behind them on that second list (the 1970-71 Milwaukee Bucks, the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls, the 1971-72 Los Angeles Lakers, the 2016-17 Golden State Warriors and the 2023-24 Boston Celtics) won the title.

Denver won't make it easy. There's too much championship equity on that roster. But the Thunder are headed to the Western Conference Finals.