Timothy Bradley vs. Brandon Rios: Preview and Prediction for Welterweight Bout

Timothy Bradley vs. Brandon Rios: Preview and Prediction for Welterweight Bout
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1Tale of the Tape
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2Main Storylines
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3Strengths
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4Weaknesses
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5Timothy Bradley Will Win If...
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6Brandon Rios Will Win If...
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7Prediction
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Timothy Bradley vs. Brandon Rios: Preview and Prediction for Welterweight Bout

Oct 26, 2015

Timothy Bradley vs. Brandon Rios: Preview and Prediction for Welterweight Bout

Two of the sport's toughest and most exciting fighters will face off at the Thomas and Mack Center in Las Vegas on Nov. 7, when Timothy Bradley defends his WBO welterweight belt against Brandon Rios. 

Bradley and Rios have both been involved in some of the best fights of the past few years. Each man has held world titles, and both have faced Manny Pacquiqo on pqy-per-view.

This is a showdown that has been a possibility for some time now. Expect fireworks in the desert when it becomes an actuality next month. 

Tale of the Tape

Per BoxRec Timothy BradleyBrandon Rios
Record:32-1-1, 12 KOs 33-2-1, 24 KOs
Height:5'6"5'8"
Reach:69"68"
Weight:147 lbs147 lbs
Age:3229
Stance:OrthodoxOrthodox
Rounds:266196
Hometown:Palm Springs, CaliforniaOxnard, California

Timothy Bradley is the shorter fighter, but he has an inch advantage in reach and should control the fight when it is on the outside. 

Bradley and Rios have been around the sport a similar amount of time and come from nearby areas in Southern California. They share a promoter in Top Rank, and it's no surprise to see this fight finally taking place. 

Main Storylines

Timothy Bradley has been one of the top pound-for-pound boxing talents of the past half-decade. He is a physically powerful and athletic fighter with outstanding boxing skills. The two-division champion has victories over world champions such as Lamont Peterson, Devon Alexander and Juan Manuel Marquez. 

Bradley has a win in the record books over Manny Pacquiao, although that June 2012 split decision was highly controversial. Bradley lost the April 2014 rematch with Pacquiao by eight rounds to four on two cards and 10 rounds to two on a third. 

In March 2013, Bradley survived Ruslan Provodnikov by unanimous decision in what I regard as the best fight of the past five years. Bradley showed inhuman physical and mental toughness in that fight, but he suffered tremendous damage. 

With the brutal rounds Bradley has fought, it's tough not to question if he is the same fighter he used to be. He came away with just a draw against Diego Chaves last December. That was a terrible decision, but it was also surprising that Bradley let Chaves fight on even-enough terms for the judges to make that kind of mistake. 

Bradley clearly won against Jessie Vargas when he beat him for the vacant WBO welterweight title last June. But Vargas had him in serious trouble at the end of the fight, and Bradley benefited from referee Pat Russell becoming confused and stopping the fight seconds early. 

Brandon Rios is a come-forward ring warrior with a chin of granite, and he never fails to give fans their money's worth. His first two fights with Mike Alvarado were all-action classics. Rios won the rubber match by Round 3 TKO last January. 

A few years ago, I would have seen this as a sure win for Bradley. But given the signs of decline he's shown in recent fights, I expect a much more competitive bout now. 

The fight will be a good one. Both of these guys are courageous fighters who leave every ounce of effort in the ring.

Strengths

Timothy Bradley is an excellent technical boxer with quick hands. His footwork is good, and he shifts angles quickly to control the terrain of a fight. 

At the same time, his physical strength allows him to impose an awkward slow-down pace when it benefits him. He can be as frustrating to fight as an octopus. 

Brandon Rios pushes a tremendous pace. He has a granite chin that allows him to take risks in order to find his own space to punch, although he is also a skilled boxer at close range. 

Rios fights with emotion. He loves to mix it up and thrives on rough, bruising exchanges.

Weaknesses

Timothy Bradley has just 12 knockouts in his career and has never knocked out a top-ranked opponent. His lack of punching power is a disadvantage when he allows himself to be drawn into a brawl. At times, he will almost seem stubborn in his desire to land the sort of big punches that have never shown up in his arsenal. 

This bigger question facing him coming into this one is how much tread he has left on his tires. He's been in some of the roughest fights of the past several years. 

Brandon Rios has always had trouble against opponents who move well and know how to box smartly on the outside. I thought his split-decision win over Richar Abril in 2012 was a flat-out robbery. Rios struggled to win even a round against Manny Pacquiao in 2013.

In the pocket, Rios is a tough customer. But he struggles at medium and long range and does not handle sudden shifts in angle well. 

Timothy Bradley Will Win If...

Even though this should be an exciting fight, the less exciting it is, the better things should be for Timothy Bradley. Bradley has to resist being drawn into an all-out war and impose a boxing match on Brandon Rios. 

Bradley needs to use a stiff jab and lateral movement to keep the fight on the outside as much as possible. That will allow him to minimize the damage Rios can inflict upon him and will make it easier for him to pick apart Rios with counters.

If Bradley can keep Rios off from him, he will have the space to shift angles and attack Rios with quick thudding combinations and then move back out of range before Rios has any chance to get set and return.

When Bradley does find himself squared up to Rios in the pocket, he needs to smother and clinch. So long as he can prevent Rios from hurting him in close, he should be able to win. 

Brandon Rios Will Win If...

Brandon Rios can only win this fight if he turns it into a phone-booth brawl. He's got to get in close with Timothy Bradley and hammer away at him. Both men have outstanding chins and conditioning. But Rios has the bigger punch, so he can win if this turns into a war of attrition. 

Expect to see Rios show a bit of discipline in the manner that he attempts to close distance in this fight. He'll need to jab his way into range rather than simply wading forward, winging punches. 

In order to cut the ring off on Bradley, Rios will need to step forward at angles rather than just moving in a forward direction. 

Ultimately, to win this fight, Rios is going to need to look sharper than he ever has before. And he's probably going to need Bradley to be a faded version of his younger self. 

Prediction

As previously noted, a few years ago, I'd have been sure that Timothy Bradley would prevail in this matchup. But he's been in some brutal fights and shown signs of decline of late. 

Regardless, I still have to view him as the smart choice in this one. If Rios can hurt him early—like Vargas did late in Bradley's last fight—then Bam Bam certainly has a shot to pull off the upset. 

But even if he gets hurt, Bradley is never going to be an easy fighter to finish. 

The 32-year-old might not be the fighter he once was, but he should still be good enough to hand Brandon Rios a unanimous-decision loss. Bradley will keep his WBO belt. 

That alphabet-soup strap makes him an interesting figure in the contemporary boxing world. With Floyd Mayweather Jr. officially retired, there is a lot of enthusiasm for turning attention to rising stars like Keith Thurman, Kell Brook and Errol Spence Jr. 

But there's a good chance at least some of the young lions are going to have to contend with Bradley before they can keep climbing to the top. 

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