Cotto vs. Alvarez Undercard: Preview and Prediction for Miura vs. Vargas

WBC super featherweight champion Takashi Miura of Japan defends his title against undefeated Francisco Vargas on the Miguel Cotto-Canelo Alvarez undercard this Saturday night. This is one of the best fights possible at 130 pounds. 

The entire boxing world has been eagerly anticipating the Cotto-Canelo clash. But Miura vs. Vargas would be a satisfying main event on any normal weekend night. 

This fight promises to be a shootout. 

Miura is the more experienced professional, but Vargas had an extensive amateur career. Both of them have faced good quality opposition as professionals. 

Both men knock out opponents in the 70 percent range. This should be a high-action fight. 

Look for accidental head clashes. Miura and Vargas both like to mix it up in the pocket, so the southpaw-orthodox matchup could lead to some bumped foreheads. 

Miura and Francisco Vargas might not be box-office stars like Cotto and Alvarez, but they are two of the best fighters in the world at 130 pounds.  The Ring has Miura ranked second in the division and Vargas fifth. Boxrec has Miura third and Vargas fourth. 

They are also both exciting, high-action fighters. Any boxing fan worth his salt would stay in on Saturday night just to see these two throw down. 

Miura is the WBC champion, a title he's held since stopping Gamaliel Diaz in 2013. Last May, he turned in a vicious Round 3 TKO of former featherweight champion Billy Dib.

Miura's last loss was in 2011, against his countryman and longtime WBA champion Takashi Uchiyama. Uchiyama is head and shoulders above the rest of the field at 130 pounds and arguably deserves to rank in the pound-for-pound top 10.

Vargas represented Mexico in the 2008 Olympics. In December 2013 and March 2014, he won back-to-back decisions over Jerry Belmontes and Abner Cotto. He smashed former star Juan Manuel Lopez by Round 3 TKO in July 2014 and stopped Will Tomlinson last March. 

At this point, Vargas is due for a title shot. With the WBC's green belt around his waist, he could become a genuine superstar with his boxing-crazy countrymen in Mexico. But Miura is a big obstacle in front of him. 

Takashi Miura

Miura is a skilled, pressure fighter. He does a great job of cutting off the ring and getting into position to launch his big left hand. 

There's no quit in him. He was stopped in his corner by his countryman, Takashi Uchiyama, when a closed eye made it impossible for him to continue. But he was looking to trade heavy shots up to the end. 

Francisco Vargas 

Vargas reminds a fan of many former Mexican greats, such as Erik Morales, who campaigned at super featherweight in the past. He comes forward behind a tight, high guard and throws compact, powerful punches to the body and head.

He has outstanding timing and excels at finding the spaces between his opponent's own punches. 

Takashi Miura

Miura treats defense almost like an afterthought. His hands tend to hang low, and he's particularly vulnerable to the left jab over the top of his own lead right. 

Miura's loss to Uchiyama was four years ago, but he suffered some serious damage to his eye in that fight. Vargas is the type of fighter who will be able to target that old wound. 

Francisco Vargas

Vargas has fought some good fighters but nobody on the level of Miura. Aside from Juan Manuel Lopez, he's faced nobody with similar power, and Lopez was a badly faded fighter by the time Vargas got him. 

Legitimate, world-class power can be a game-changer in the professional ranks. It's tough to know how Vargas will handle it until he's actually faced it. 

Miura wins his fights and became a world champion by coming forward and delivering punishing shots. He's an offensive-minded fighter. That won't change for this fight. 

But against a fighter such as Vargas, who has skill and power, he will need to tighten things up just a bit. He's got to be mindful to keep his lead right hand up high to guard against Vargas' left hook. 

He also needs to attempt to get his own lead right foot to the outside of Vargas' lead left. This is a basic challenge for both men when a southpaw faces an orthodox opponent. Whoever gets the better of that small detail has the best chance to land his own power punches. 

Miura can beat just about any 130-pound fighter in the world if he can land his own power shots. Against Vargas, he will need to take precautions to make sure Vargas doesn't hurt him too badly before he gets the chance to do it. 

Vargas should look to take advantage of Miura's tendency to drop his lead hand. He wants to get off first with his jab, while stepping to the outside of Miura's lead right foot with his own lead left. He needs to double up the jab repeatedly and then mix in the jab/left hook combination, looking to come over the top of Miura's right hand.

Miura is not an easy fighter to stop or even slow down. But if Vargas can land at a high percentage upstairs with his left hook, he'll have a good chance of closing the champion's eye, just as Uchiyama did.

Since Vargas has the tighter defense, it should be to his advantage to force some fast-paced exchanges, just as he did in his stoppage of Juan Manuel Lopez. He wants to throw shorter, more compact punches, inside the space Miura creates with his own attack.

When he's not punching, Vargas needs to make sure his hands return to good defensive position. If he can out-land Miura, he should be able to beat him.  

I expect this to be a very exciting fight, and I won't be surprised if either man wins. But I think Francisco Vargas is overdue for becoming a world champion. He's the better technical boxer and has enough power to slow Miura down. 

I think the early rounds of this fight will be fast-paced and highly competitive. But Vargas will have a sense of Miura's rhythm by the middle of the fight, and then he will begin to take over. By the late rounds, Miura will be struggling just to finish the fight. 

Ultimately, I'm predicting that Vargas will win by unanimous decision, taking about eight or nine rounds on the judges' cards. 

If he wins, I'd like to see Vargas matched with WBA champion Takashi Uchiyama, one of boxing's great talents. No matter whom he fights next, Vargas has the potential to be a big star in the sport. Saturday night should be his first major step toward making that happen.