Belk Bowl 2015: Preview, Predictions for N.C. State vs. Mississippi State
If you skim the standings of the SEC West and the ACC Atlantic, Mississippi State and North Carolina State, respectively, will be a ways on down the list.
But just because they didn't show too well in extremely difficult divisions doesn't mean the Bulldogs and Wolfpack are bad teams. That's what makes this Belk Bowl battle very interesting.
Though MSU wound up 4-4 in the SEC and tied for fifth in the division, coach Dan Mullen's team won five of its last seven games, dispatching Arkansas along the way. The Bulldogs also took LSU to the wire early in the season and are led by star senior quarterback Dak Prescott.
The Wolfpack wound up 3-5 in the ACC and 7-5 for the year, but they narrowly lost to Louisville and hung 41 points and 34 points on ACC Championship Game participants Clemson and North Carolina, respectively, in barn-burning losses.
They have their own star senior quarterback in Florida transfer Jacoby Brissett, who showed out in last year's bowl game and has the potential to do the same.
This has all the makings to be a high-scoring, fun bowl-game atmosphere. So, let's tell you everything you need to know about this year's Belk Bowl.
Date: Wednesday, December 30, 2015
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
Place: Bank of America Stadium; Charlotte, North Carolina
TV: ESPN
Radio: North Carolina St. Wolfpack Sports Network, Mississippi State Bulldog Sports Network
Mississippi State Keys to Victory
Unleash the Dak-en
After bursting onto the Heisman Trophy scene a season ago as a junior, Mississippi State quarterback Dak Prescott elected to come back for his senior season to lead the Bulldogs to bigger and better things.
That didn't exactly work out the way he'd planned, but that doesn't take anything away from the 6'2", 230-pound wrecking-ball's senior season. If he'd had a better supporting cast, the Bulldogs could have done big things.
If anything, Prescott wasn't talked about enough when it came to national awards. Still, the dual-threat quarterback had a brilliant season despite telling Jackson Clarion-Ledger reporter Michael Bonner that this year was tougher with a target on his back.
"I think it was more difficult," Prescott said. "People key on you. They know they have to stop you. Sometimes defenses are playing just to stop you, just to keep you contained. I'm just thankful to my coaches, teammates and a lot preparation made it a good year."
After running the ball consistently as a junior, Prescott went a long way this year in answering next-level questions about whether he could consistently pass the ball.
While he did rush for 541 yards and 10 touchdowns, it was mostly his arm that did the damage this year. He completed 66.9 percent of his passes for 3,413 yards, 25 touchdowns and just four interceptions. In a year when most of the SEC talk revolved around brilliant running backs, he quietly had a superstar season.
If Prescott is on top of his game, N.C. State will have a tough time stopping him, and the numbers will wind up similar to that of Deshaun Watson.
Manufacture some ground success
As it turned out, former running back Josh Robinson's decision to bolt school and skip his senior season to go to the NFL wound up hurting the Bulldogs badly.
Despite having a stable full of young, talented runners, nobody had a strong season for coach Dan Mullen on the ground other than Prescott.
Between Brandon Holloway, Ashton Shumpert, Aeris Williams and Dontavian Lee, somebody should have stepped up. It wound be a strong building block for somebody to have a big bowl game, take a little pressure off Prescott and give the Bulldogs an exciting close to the season.
You cannot win consistently without being able to move the chains on the ground. Thanks to Prescott, MSU was second in the league in that category this year. But this is his swan song, so somebody has to take the baton moving forward.
Hot start
The Bulldogs laid a first-half egg in the Egg Bowl and wound up getting handled by rival Ole Miss, 38-27.
"We just dug ourselves too big of a hole," Mullen told the Associated Press (via ESPN.com).
They simply can't duplicate that start against the Wolfpack.
On paper, it appears that Mississippi State is the better team, and you'd think Mullen will have them geared up for Prescott's final game in maroon. But in order to do that, the porous MSU offensive line has to keep Prescott's jersey that color without any grass stains.
He was sacked seven times against the Rebels and has run for his life a lot of the season. The rushing struggles have a lot to do with all the new first-year starters along the front, too.
If the Bulldogs get off to a strong offensive start, they could handle the Pack. If not, it may be a long day.
N.C. State Keys to Victory
Shore up that defense
With their defensive issues this season, it's going to be difficult for the Wolfpack to be able to stop both of Mississippi State star receivers Fred Ross and De'Runnya Wilson.
But they do need to neutralize one of them to have a shot to win.
The duo has combined for 136 catches for 1,755 yards and 13 touchdowns on the season. They are one of the most dynamic tandems in all of college football.
N.C. State allowed 28 points against Virginia Tech, 56 against Clemson, 34 against Florida State and 45 against North Carolina. They've thrown up some real clunkers defensively, and they can't afford to get behind Dak Prescott and his receiving weapons by too much too early.
It happened that way against North Carolina when the Wolfpack surrendered 35 first-half points in an eventual loss.
"I take ownership for (the first quarter)," Wolfpack coach Dave Doeren told Adam Beard of the Associated Press (via the Centre Daily Times). "We weren't ready. For whatever reason, we weren't setting edges, we weren't tackling and doing the things we've normally done."
With each of these teams having a hard time starting games, whoever wins the first quarter may win.
Make Prescott one-dimensional
As much as Prescott can hurt teams through the air, you've got to be able to shut down his feet. Nothing is more demoralizing to a defense than to have great coverage downfield only to give up a 15-yard scramble.
That's why it's essential that the Wolfpack leave somebody in to spy Prescott at all times.
Any time you're playing against a senior leader at signal-caller who has enjoyed the success Prescott has with his wheels (more than 500 rushing yards), it's an element of his game that must be accounted for.
MSU is going to rake up some yards throwing the football. But if you keep Prescott from running wild, you normally keep the Bulldogs from having any success on the ground.
That is a recipe for the upset.
Running Back by committee
Dynamic running back Matthew Dayes was lost for the season with a foot injury in a loss to Clemson late in the year, and the Wolfpack have to be able to find somebody to replicate part of his production to have a balanced attack against Mississippi State.
The onus has fallen on Reggie Gallaspy II, who piled up 81 and 77 yards against Syracuse and North Carolina, respectively, in the season's final two games.
The freshman has really come on as of late, and fellow freshman Nyheim Hines has proved the Pack has a bright future with running weapons. Against Syracuse, those two and Dakwa Nichols all ran for at least 70 yards each.
"That, to me, is what we want to be around here," Doeren told the News & Observer's Chip Alexander. "We want to be about tough, playing hard, hitting, playing with passion."
If the Wolfpack can find success on the ground the way a lot of teams have against Mississippi State, they stand a good chance of winning.
Mississippi State Players to Watch
Fred Ross
The SEC's leader with 81 receptions has thrived as Dak Prescott's No. 1 weapon. While De'Runnya Wilson gets most of the headlines as being the big-play guy and the NFL-bodied target, Ross just moves chains.
He has 933 yards on the season and wants nothing more than to close in on 1,000. The 6'2", 207-pound junior from Tyler, Texas, probably has his own bright future on the next level. He's explosive and versatile, and coach Dan Mullen lines him up all over the field.
He's big enough to line up in the slot and go across the middle and can also do damage on the outside. That's why he has emerged as perhaps MSU's biggest threat to leave school a year early.
Plays such as this one-handed grab featured on ESPN's Sports Science provide a highlight reel that translates well on the next level.
De'Runnya Wilson
At 6'5", 215 pounds, the Birmingham, Alabama, native also has NFL scouts drooling over his potential. It's no wonder the Bulldogs had such a dominant passing attack in 2015.
Wilson wound up with 55 catches for 822 receiving yards and nine touchdowns this season. Not only does he provide a big body for Prescott to find in crucial moments, but he's also a marquee red-zone target. He possesses long arms and exceptional body control in the air.
CSNPhilly.com's Paul Hudrick said this of Wilson's pro potential: "He is intriguing because of his size and strength. The former Alabama 'Mr. Basketball' is an elite athlete. He resembles Panthers receiver Kelvin Benjamin. He needs to be more consistent, but has the potential be a monster."
Things that have improved this season for him are run blocking and route running, and that's why it isn't out of the realm of possibility for this to be Wilson's last year in Starkville.
He could have a breakout game against the Wolfpack, who have been vulnerable to big receivers all season.
Richie Brown
Mississippi State's 6'2", 245-pound junior middle linebacker has enjoyed a standout season that was worthy of all-conference honors.
Playing in the center of a defense full of fast athletes, Brown has been a steady tackling force for the Bulldogs.
He finished the regular season with 101 tackles, including 12 for a loss, 5.5 sacks and an interception. In a league full of exceptional linebackers, Brown stated his case for being one of the best.
Having to replace departed NFL draft pick Benardrick McKinney wasn't an easy task, but Brown has been up to it.
"Richie, with his confidence being on the field knew coming in, being Richie Brown was good enough to be the starting middle linebacker," Mullen told the Clarion-Ledger's Michael Bonner. "Richie Brown is good enough for us to go win. He didn’t have to pretend or act like Benardrick McKinney."
N.C. State Players to Watch
Jacoby Brissett
The 6'4", 231-pound senior transfer quarterback never could find a home at Florida with former coach Will Muschamp on the sideline and embattled Jeff Driskel blocking his path.
But, boy, did he ever find a home in Raleigh.
After a standout junior season, Brissett again starred this year, despite a season that wasn't what coach Dave Doeren hoped for from a team standpoint. He completed 61 percent of his passes for 2,448 yards, 19 touchdowns and just four interceptions. He also ran for 303 yards and five more scores.
"Brissett is a playmaker," Florida State coach Jimbo Fisher told Palm Beach Post reporter Tom D'Angelo. "Once you get a piece of him you can't. ... He's strong enough to stand up there and throw the ball down the field. He can create big plays, he's hard to get on the ground and he can throw in tight areas with people hanging on him."
That description is very Prescott-esque, and the two signal-callers do have some similarities. He was the man who helped Doeren bring the Wolfpack back to respectability, and he'd love nothing more than to finish his career by beating a team from the conference where he started.
Mike Rose
There haven't been many bright spots for much of the year when N.C. State played quality opponents, but that hasn't kept Rose from having a strong season.
The defensive end has 10.5 sacks on the year, and while the back seven have struggled at times for the Wolfpack, Rose is a big reason why the defensive front has been a strength much of the year.
Before the blowup in the first quarter against the Tar Heels, N.C. State was turning things around defensively, forcing 11 turnovers and getting 10 sacks in the three prior games. They're going to need that sort of opportunistic playmaking to beat the Bulldogs.
With all the struggles MSU's offensive line has experienced protecting Prescott, it needs to account for Rose at all times.
Jaylen Samuels
The best player on the Wolfpack's team doesn't even have a position.
It's because he plays everywhere.
Samuels is a 5'11", 240-pound do-it-all beast who earned first-team All-ACC honors playing as a tight end, fullback and tailback for the Pack. He was fourth in the ACC in receptions with 64 and also fourth in touchdown grabs with seven.
He also added 53 rushes for 330 yards and seven more touchdowns. Simply put, Doeren knew he had to get the ball to Samuels because all he does to make plays.
One thing is for certain: If he does make plays, Samuels will let MSU know about it.
"I've been a trash talker since high school,” Samuels told the News & Observer's Joe Giglio. "I just like to be competitive. That's just a part of my game."
What They're Saying
Through the injuries and all the youth that they're playing, maybe this wasn't what coach Dave Doeren dreamed of for his N.C. State Wolfpack. But it isn't a bad season-ender.
He seemed very appreciative of the opportunity to play close to home in a statement released by the school.
"We are both excited and thankful for the opportunity to play instate at the Belk Bowl in the great city of Charlotte," N.C. State coach Dave Doeren said in a statement released by the school (via BelkBowl.com). "This is a great reward for our young team that has continued to improve over the course of the season."
Like clockwork, each offseason brings coaching rumors to Starkville where Dan Mullen still sits atop the Bulldogs program. This year, he interviewed with Miami before Mark Richt took the job, according to the Sun Sentinel's Dave Hyde. There also were rumors surrounding him for jobs such as Georgia and even Maryland, according to the Clarion-Ledger's Michael Bonner.
But he remains in Starkville where he'll prepare his Bulldogs for the Wolfpack, then life without Dak Prescott.
Bonner said it isn't any wonder why teams want Mullen.
The New Hampshire native has brought six bowl games in seven years to a program that went to 13 in the previous seven decades before his arrival. Mullen built a reputation at Utah and Florida as a quarterback guru coaching Alex Smith, Tim Tebow and Cam Newton. Mullen has continued it at Mississippi State.
He won nine games with Chris Relf as a starting quarterback. He orchestrated a record-setting offense with Tyler Russell. They all fell to Dak Prescott who, under Mullen, became the school’s first legitimate Heisman Trophy contender.
Mullen has done it all with recruiting classes that ranked near the bottom of the Southeastern Conference. It’s not surprising that his name surfaces to the top of the rumor mill.
Speaking of Prescott, he discussed what his winning legacy at MSU means to him with ESPN.com's Greg Ostendorf: "That's something I’ll look back at later," he said. "But I just hope people remember me as a guy that played with passion, played with his heart, went out there and left everything out there for my teammates and for my family. I just tried to play for the name on the front of the jersey as well as the back."
Prediction
Charlotte, get ready for a barn burner.
What do you get when you pit two dynamic, dual-threat senior quarterbacks, a stable full of able playmaking receivers and two defenses that have struggled against quality offenses all year?
Probably a lot of points.
There's no reason why we shouldn't prepare ourselves for a lot of fireworks on an otherwise lazy Wednesday afternoon on Dec. 30 when the time slot for the Belk Bowl rolls up. That's when Dak Prescott and Jacoby Brissett will play their final collegiate games.
Both will be wanting to cement their important legacies at their respective schools with a win in an otherwise pedestrian season for their teams. While both quarterbacks have posted excellent numbers this season, the win-loss records aren't where they'd like for them to be.
But as the programs get ready to move on without their leaders, it would be a nice going-away present to get a win.
While both teams should be able to score on the other, it's just going to be too difficult for the Wolfpack to account for Fred Ross and De'Runnya Wilson. Those guys are going to have big game, and the Bulldogs will finish the year with their ninth win in what was expected to be a "down year."
N.C. State will deal with a 7-6 season, but it has plenty to look forward to with a bunch of young talent on both sides of the ball.
Prediction: Bulldogs 44, N.C. State 31