Sergey Kovalev vs. Jean Pascal: Preview and Prediction for Title Fight

This Saturday night in Montreal, IBF, WBO and WBA light heavyweight champion Sergey Kovalev faces former champion Jean Pascal on HBO at 9:45 p.m. ET in a rematch of their March 2015 bout. Kovalev won that fight by Round 8 TKO. 

Kovalev is one of the sport's hottest stars, and light heavyweight is one of boxing's top divisions right now. Pascal might have gone out on his shield against the Russian last year, but he's still among the best in the world at 175 pounds. 

Montreal is one of the world's leading fight cities and Pascal is a star there. It will be a great atmosphere for a slugfest come the weekend. 

Sergey Kovalev and Jean Pascal are both compact, athletic light heavyweights with explosive power. But Kovalev is by far the bigger puncher. 

Kovalev is a Russian native who has launched a great boxing career out of Florida. Pascal is a native of Haiti who has become a hometown star in rugged Quebec. 

To be honest, this is not a rematch that really needs to take place. Sergey Kovalev's victory over Jean Pascal last year was decisive.

After Kovalev hurt him badly in the early going, Pascal rallied gamely and did good work in the middle rounds. But referee Luis Pabon's stoppage in Round 8 was entirely appropriate. 

Pascal was trapped in the corner, getting hit by flush punches and offering no defense for them. He may not have been completely separated from consciousness, but Pascal's very life was in danger when Pabon stepped in. 

Aside from the manner in which he lost to Kovalev last time out, Pascal was lucky to win last July against Yunieski Gonzalez. I had Gonzalez winning seven rounds to three. It was among the year's worst decisions. 

But their first fight had some genuine excitement and Pascal remains very popular in Montreal, which is a terrific fight city. So from a business perspective, this fight makes total sense.

Pascal is too talented to write off entirely, even against a star like Kovalev. For Kovalev, this is probably the most lucrative fight he can make right now. And it gives him another chance to fight in WBC champion Adonis Stevenson's backyard. 

Sergey Kovalev is a methodical assassin. Every punch he throws has the potential to end a fight. He knocked out Cedric Agnew with a jab to the body. 

But Kovalev is intelligent and patient about setting those big punches up. He doesn't rush the pace and invite a wild melee. Instead, he uses his power to dictate terrain and tempo. 

Jean Pascal is a rugged, athletic fighter. He has a great chin and more than enough power to force an opponent to respect him. 

Pascal is an experienced veteran. He's faced many of the best fighters in the world at 175 pounds over the past six years. 

Sergey Kovalev has shown very little in the way of weakness in a professional boxing ring. He's not necessarily difficult to hit. 

Jean Pascal likes to counter opponents with a big punch, and this can sometimes allow him to be outworked in terms of pace. It should have cost him the fight against Yunieski Gonzalez last July. Against Kovalev, it let the Russian dictate tempo and hammer him. 

Pascal also tends to lunge dangerously. 

Sergey Kovalev already has the right blueprint for beating Jean Pascal. He's going to want to control the range and pace of the fight from in back of his jab. Kovalev's jab is a scoring weapon by itself and can do a lot to neutralize Pascal's athleticism and speed. 

Expect Kovalev to be patient as always. While he's looking for his big shots, he should continue to pound away at Pascal, hitting him on the shoulders, the arms and torso. These might not be scoring punches, but Kovalev has the kind of thudding power that will still help break Pascal down, even if he is partially bocking the shots.  

While it's easy to admire the methodical manner in which Kovalev dismantles an opponent, he should apply a bit more pressure if he hurts Pascal early. The last time they fought, Pascal was able to rally and make the middle rounds a bit of a scrap. 

Still, it's misleading to complain about anything Kovalev did in their last fight. Overall, it was a one-sided destruction of a good fighter. 

Jean Pascal showed tremendous heart in his last fight against Sergey Kovalev and even managed to win a round on all three judges' cards. It was an exciting bout. But it wasn't close. 

To have any shot at winning, Pascal is going to need to figure out how to control the pace of the fight and prevent Kovalev from stalking him and ultimately destroying him. 

For that to happen, he's going to need to use a busy jab and some movement. Behind that jab, Pascal needs to explode inside and get off with his flurries.

But Pascal has to move back out of range intelligently, at angles, to force Kovalev to turn and reset before the big-punching Russian can counter with the heavy shots. 

Pascal succeeded in doing some of these things, to a small degree, in the last fight between these two. He's going to need to make a much better show of it this time around, or he'll suffer another one-sided defeat. 

When these two fought last March, it was a case of a good fighter taking on a great one. Jean Pascal showed grit and had some moments during the fight. But ultimately, Sergey Kovalev prevailed in a one-sided fight. 

Pascal hasn't suddenly turned into a great fighter over the past nine months. So there's no reason to expect this bout to suddenly be more competitive than the last one.

Pascal has a great chin, so he'll be able to hang in there and possibly put himself into position to land some good punches of his own. But he's not going to land the kind of punches that could bring the Russian Destroyer's winning streak to a halt.

This fight should be more decisive than the last one was. When a great fighter has already had one chance to study a good fighter up close, the rematch is usually less close than the first time.

Kovalev will knock Pascal out within eight rounds again.

If things unfold the way they should, Kovalev will face Andre Ward sometime during 2016. That will be a true test for the light heavyweight champion, because Ward is a great fighter in his own right.