A 5-Point Plan to Take Italy to Euro 2016 Glory

The beginning of the 2016 UEFA European Championship is hours away.  On Friday evening, host nation France will take on Romania to ring in the tournament, and three days later, the Italian national team will start their campaign against Belgium.

Most pundits don't expect much from the Azzurri in this tournament.  So low are the expectations for Antonio Conte's side that in a poll of ESPN FC's country-specific bloggers covering the tournament, seven of 24 tipped them to be the biggest flop of the tournament.

But if the Euros have taught us anything over the years, it's to expect the unexpected.  

In 1992, a Danish team that wouldn't have even been in the tournament if not for the breakup of Yugoslavia shocked the world and took home the title.  In 2004, Greece pulled a similar stunner, beating hosts Portugal 1-0 in the final.  Four years ago, the unfancied Italians pulled a major surprise by making the final.

Even this year's qualifying stage provided some surprises.  The expansion of the tournament from 16 teams to 24 was expected to make the qualifiers a rubber-stamp for Europe's big nations, but the Netherlands—who have finished second and third, respectively, in the last two World Cups—crashed out, finishing fourth in their group behind the Czech Republic, Iceland and Turkey.

The point?  Anything can happen in this tournament—including Italy taking home their second European title.

How can they do it?  Here's a five-step plan to bring Italy to Euro glory.

Gianluigi Buffon is one of the game's legendary players, and one of its most decorated.  

Since making his debut for Parma in 1995, the goalkeeper has won the Coppa Italia three times, the Supercoppa Italiana six times, the UEFA Cup and seven Scudetti—or nine, depending on which way you view the Calciopoli scandal.  He's also been the runner-up in the UEFA Champions League twice.

And, of course, there's the cherry on top of all those trophies—victory in the 2006 World Cup.  He was also runner-up in the European Championship four years ago.  In his long international career, he has received 157 caps—by far the highest total in Italian history.

Even at the age of 38, Buffon is still one of the three or four best players in the world at his position, and he may go down as the best goalkeeper in the history of the game when he decides it's time to hang up his gloves.

However, as important as anything Buffon may do on the field is what he does in the locker room.

Buffon is an exceptional leader.  He has been captain of the Azzurri since the retirement of Fabio Cannavaro in 2010 and has skippered Juventus since Alessandro Del Piero left Turin at the end of the 2011-12 season.  His leadership has been a key aspect to the success of both teams.

Never has that been more apparent than this past season.  Juventus had only gained 12 points in their first 10 games, and after an embarrassing 1-0 defeat to Sassuolo, Buffon ripped into his team.  

The speech has become known in some fan circles as the "Sassuolo address," and a few days later, a last-second win over Torino started a run of 15 straight wins—it would eventually stretch to 24 in 25 games—that brought them from 12th to first.

In Buffon, Italy has one of the game's best players on and off the field.  If they take their cues from him, they can raise their game to levels no one thinks they can reach.

Italian football has always been known first and foremost for its defence.  Even when people think of the Azzurri today, they think of the cattenaccio tactics that were developed in the 1960s.

Given the lack of dynamism in the forward line and the injury problems that have riddled the midfield, Italy may have to lean on that defensive culture more than they have had to in the past few tournaments.

Fortunately, the defence that they'll be leaning on is excellent.

Forget Karim Benzema, Gareth Bale and Cristiano Ronaldo at Real Madrid; for Italians, the true "BBC" lives in Turin and is made up of Andrea Barzagli, Leonardo Bonucci and Giorgio Chiellini.

The trio has been together since January of 2011, when Barzagli joined Juventus from Wolfsburg for a mere €500,000.  Bonucci had arrived in that summer, while Chiellini was in his sixth year at Vinovo.

The end of that 2010-11 season was difficult, but the arrival of Antonio Conte the next year saw the formation of one of, if not the most formidable defensive unit of the century.  Recognising the strength of his centre-backs, Conte switched to a 3-5-2 midway through that first season.  The results were staggering.

With Buffon marshaling them, the trio has conceded only 111 league goals in five years—an average of 22.2 per season.

The trio is intimately familiar with each other and with Conte's 3-5-2, which he has fallen back on since the injuries to Claudio Marchisio and Marco Verratti severely hurt his midfield.  That familiarity will be the bedrock of the Azzurri in this tournament.

Italy will have to be a defence-first team in order to get deep into this tournament, much like the 2004 Greece team that won it all.  The longer they go without conceding a goal, the better chance they have of being able to steal goals—and wins.  

If the "BBC" does its job, this team will have a puncher's chance against any side in the field.

Italy will be clear underdogs in their opener against Belgium on Monday, and few people are tipping them to get far in this tournament. In other words, they have the rest of the field right where they want them.

Italy tends to find its biggest successes when everyone least expects it.  That trend goes all the way back to the 1982 World Cup, when Italian football was still reeling from the Totonero match-fixing scandal, which broke in 1980.

No one thought they would make much noise in the tournament, but they won their third world title on the back of surprise goalscoring hero Paolo Rossi, brushing aside Argentina, Brazil and West Germany along the way.

The expectations were similarly low in 2006, when the Azzurri entered the tournament under the storm of Calciopoli and facing what was being considered the "group of death."

What followed was one of the greatest defensive performances in World Cup history.  No opponent scored on the Italians in open play, and they earned their fourth star in a shootout against France.

Italy's trip to the final in 2012 also came under a cloud of controversy that lowered expectations.  By contrast, when the Azzurri was faced with an easy group in the 2010 World Cup, they crashed out in embarrassing fashion, and two years ago—when some considered them dark horses in Brazil—they lost their last two games to again fall out before the knockout stage.

Low expectations tend to produce Italy's best results.  This side needs to embrace their status as underdogs to find what the 1982, 2006 and 2012 teams did if they want to replicate their results.

Italy lacks the dynamism in attack that it has seen in the past.  There is no Roberto Baggio, no Alessandro Del Piero, no Francesco Totti.  Even Mario Balotelli was a more dynamic presence at the last European Championship than most of the forwards Conte is bringing to France.

Given how often Italy figures to be defending and how badly creativity is needed both up front and in midfield, the Azzurri will likely see a limited number of scoring chances in this tournament.  With that in mind, when their chances do come, they must take them.

This team has a good enough defence to win games even against elite competition, but to win you have to score.  One of the glaring weaknesses Italy showed in pre-tournament friendlies against Scotland and Finland was the lack of a clinical scoring touch.

According to ESPN FC, Italy only hit the target with seven of 21 shots against Finland and only three of 14 against Scotland.

That's not going to be good enough in a major tournament against the likes of Belgium, or any of the elite sides Italy may face in the knockout stages if they get there.  They need to find the target with the chances they get.  If they don't, their stay in France will be a short one.

The injuries to Claudio Marchisio and Marco Verratti severely affected Antonio Conte's plans for this tournament.

When healthy, those two are among the 15 best midfielders in the game.  The drop-off after them in Italy's talent pool is steep.  The loss of Riccardo Montolivo was a further blow to an already-depleted unit.

If the Italians are going to get through to the later rounds, they simply cannot afford any more injuries.  The forward line is already thin at full strength, and the midfield depth is stretched to breaking point.

Any injuries to the defensive unit would be critical.  Conte is only bringing one reserve centre-back.  Fortunately, Angelo Ogbonna is familiar with the rest of the defenders and the Italy boss after spending two years at Juventus before his move last summer to West Ham United. However, there would still be a talent drop-off between him and the top three.

Of course, if Gianluigi Buffon gets injured, all bets are off.  Back-up goalkeeper Salvatore Sirigu has proved himself more than capable, but he only played sporadically at Paris Saint-Germain last season and could be rusty.

This Italian team can cause trouble, but to do that they need to maintain a precarious balance.  If that gets thrown off by an injury, it could have disastrous consequences.