Olympic Golf 2016: Predictions for Top Stars in Rio

A fact you've probably heard plenty: Golf makes its return to the Olympics this week for the first time since 1904, when Canada's George Lyon won gold in a five-day match play competition. 

Much anticipated since the International Golf Federation lobbied in 2009 for the sport's inclusion in the Olympic program, the 72-hole men's stroke play competition gets started Thursday from the brand new Gil Hanse-designed Olympic course. 

While there were plenty of bumps along the way, some big names on both the men's and women's sides are prepared to put a peg in the ground in Brazil. 

Here are our predictions for the top stars. 

Sergio Garcia missed the cut at the PGA Championship in his most recent action. But don't let that dissuade you from backing the Spaniard this week. 

Beyond his quality showings at links-style venues in recent years and his strong 2016 season, Garcia has another gear when it comes to international competition, as his Ryder Cup pedigree is a testament to. 

Garcia finished 1-T5-T5 in his three starts leading up to the PGA Championship. He's the No. 11 golfer in the Official World Golf Ranking and he's 12th on tour this season in strokes gained off the tee. 

Prediction: Top-five finish

Without an inspired performance since returning from a back injury at The Open Championship, it's prudent to remember that as the No. 12 golfer in the OWGR, Rose is the fourth most formidable in the field, based on that metric. 

He's also fourth on tour this season in strokes gained off of the tee and seventh in strokes gained from tee-to-green: an indication of his ball-striking prowess. 

If we take his recent work at The Open Championship, where he tied for 22nd, and consider Royal Troon to be somewhat similar to the Olympic track, then look at the relative strength of the two fields, it's hard to see the Englishman finishing worse than 10th. 

Prediction: Top-10 finish 

The ever unpredictable Mr. Watson. Jetpack aficionado Bubba Watson has been in something of a dry spell recently, having not cracked the top 10 since April. More recently, he tied for 60th at the PGA Championship and for 25th at the Travelers Championship in his last two appearances on tour. 

Still, at No. 6 in the Official World Golf Ranking (second in the field, by that metric), and as the leading points earner in Olympic qualifying (who didn't opt out), the two-time Masters champion's pedigree must be respected. 

Given Watson's historic struggles on links venues or courses that emphasize the ground game, which the Olympic course appears it will, it's difficult to see him making a serious run at gold. 

However, as is always worth mentioning, nobody hits the shots Bubba does, and no golfer in the field is blessed with as much raw talent as the long-hitting left-hander.  

Prediction: Top-15 finish 

The shoo-in for "boldest haircut on a U.S. golfer at the Olympics," Rickie Fowler looks to collect legitimate laurels on the course this week. 

As the No. 8 golfer in the Official World Golf Ranking, Fowler is among the five best in the field from that standpoint. Statistically, he has been stellar this season, presently ranking seventh in that great catch-all metric of good performance: total strokes gained. 

But coming off a pair of disappointing showings at The Open Championship (T46) and the PGA Championship (T33), it's tough to expect Fowler to medal.

However, given the strength of the field and his prowess, it's equally tough to imagine him falling outside the top 10 when the final scores are tallied. 

Prediction: Top-10 finish

There's nothing bold in predicting the odds-on favorite and top-ranked (in terms of OWGR) player in the field to win. But with the overwhelming nature of the experience in Brazil and given that nobody has played the course before, expecting players to regress to the mean this week seems sensible. 

And no golfer has a better mean, both over the past two seasons and in his last 10 starts, than Henrik Stenson. 

In his most recent action, Stenson finished 13th at the Scottish Open, won The Open Championship and finished seventh at the PGA Championship.

Of interest statistically, he's third on tour in strokes gained from tee-to-green and 10th in total strokes gained. 

From initial looks, Gil Hanse's course is reminiscent of a links-style venue or one of the tracks of Australia's famed Sandbelt. It's tough, then, to pass over the guy who just set the all-time major scoring record at Royal Troon. 

Prediction: Winner

Moving over to the stars on the women's side: Lexi Thompson is the biggest star among the Stars and Stripes.

With one win and nine top-10 finishes this season, and at fourth in the Rolex Ranking, Thompson has both pedigree and good recent form behind her as she chases a gold medal. 

The tour's longest hitter and second in greens in regulation, Thompson, who struggles mightily with putting, should make a run at gold. However, it's difficult to imagine she'll handle speedy greens she's never seen before for four consecutive days. 

Prediction: Top-five finish 

World No. 1 for more than 40 weeks at present, Lydia Ko is, quite simply, the best golfer in the women's game. 

She's won four times this season and currently leads the Race to the CME Globe: an indication of the quality of her recent play. 

As the tour's leader in both putting and scoring average and ranked eighth in birdies, Ko will be well poised to attack Gil Hanse's course. It's accessible and disciplined enough to dissect if the wind blows. 

A proud Kiwi who is shut out of the Solheim Cup as neither an American nor a European, Ko will be looking to do her country proud in her most significant opportunity to do so. 

The tour's youngest major winner, Ko has no problem rising to the occasion and adapting quickly. Expect her to do just that in Rio. 

Prediction: Winner

Stats via PGATour.com and LPGA.com