Bowl Predictions 2020: Updated Predictions After Week 11 Rankings

Bowl Predictions 2020: Updated Predictions After Week 11 Rankings
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1Sugar Bowl: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Notre Dame
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2Rose Bowl: No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Clemson
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3New Year's 6
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Bowl Predictions 2020: Updated Predictions After Week 11 Rankings

Nov 13, 2020

Bowl Predictions 2020: Updated Predictions After Week 11 Rankings

The College Football Playoff selection committee could be tasked with a familiar conundrum when it meets to finalize the four-team field. 

There is yet another scenario in which one conference could place two teams in the national semifinals, but the only difference this season is it may not be the SEC in that role. 

After the Notre Dame Fighting Irish's win over the Clemson Tigers in Week 10, the playoff speculation surrounded how both ACC programs could reach the final four through a Clemson win in a potential ACC Championship Game rematch. 

The committee's decision may be easier than previous seasons since the Big 12 has essentially eliminated itself from the playoff discussion and the Pac-12 is typically undervalued compared to the other four power conferences. 

The presence of the Cincinnati Bearcats or BYU Cougars directly beneath the top four could force a discussion to include a Group of Five team, but for that to happen, those two squads need Clemson to lose twice. 

Sugar Bowl: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Notre Dame

We will have to wait another week to see the Alabama Crimson Tide back on the gridiron. 

Alabama's SEC West showdown with the LSU Tigers was postponed, which gives the Tide back-to-back bye weeks. 

The No. 1 team in the FBS is expected to play next on November 21 versus the Kentucky Wildcats. The Iron Bowl against the Auburn Tigers follows, and then the Tide hit the road to play the Arkansas Razorbacks. 

All three of the games remaining on Alabama's schedule are winnable, and the continuation of its winning streak could clinch the SEC West title by early December. 

Nick Saban's team holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Texas A&M Aggies, who could be one of the teams lurking for the No. 4 seed if Clemson loses twice.

A potential SEC Championship Game matchup with the Florida Gators could test Alabama, but so far, it has proved to be in a different class than the SEC's other elite programs. Alabama outscored Texas A&M and the Georgia Bulldogs by a combined 93-48. 

There will only be a fight for the No. 4 seed if Clemson stumbles on a second occasion to Notre Dame, but that may not happen with Trevor Lawrence back and if defensive improvements are made. 

Notre Dame surged to No. 2 in the AP Top 25 and Coaches Poll after its Week 10 win, and that positioning could be crucial if it wins out and heads to Charlotte on December 19. 

If the Irish were sitting at No. 3 or No. 4, they could be in a more precarious situation if they lost the rematch to Clemson. 

The precedent set this season with Georgia's loss to Alabama and Clemson's recent defeat is that teams can drop just two places after suffering defeats to one of the best teams in the FBS. 

If Notre Dame plays Clemson tight again but ends up on the wrong end of the score line, it could be headed for a playoff berth.

Rose Bowl: No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Clemson

The Ohio State Buckeyes find themselves in the same spot as Alabama in Week 11. 

Ohio State will be sidelined because of the cancellation of its game with the Maryland Terrapins, which means it only has seven games on the Big Ten schedule. 

The Buckeyes could face their toughest test of the conference season in Week 12, as the Indiana Hoosiers come to Ohio Stadium for what could be the de facto Big Ten East title game. 

Indiana knocked off the Penn State Nittany Lions and Michigan Wolverines, who were viewed as Ohio State's top competition in the East division prior to the season. 

Those losses could also devalue Ohio State's victory over Penn State and its potential win over Michigan if the two sides do not recover from poor starts. 

As long as Ryan Day's side goes undefeated, it should land one of the top three positions in the playoff. It may not touch Alabama because of the quality in the SEC, but it could land the No. 2 seed. 

Clemson only dropped to No. 4 in both rankings following its double-overtime defeat in South Bend, Indiana. 

The Tigers' problem in the loss was not the play of D.J. Uiagalelei, who threw for 439 yards, so that is a good sign for Lawrence when he gets a crack at the Notre Dame defense. 

Clemson's issue right now is a defense that allowed 47 points in Week 10 and was gashed for 28 first-half points by the Boston College Eagles in Week 9. 

If Dabo Swinney's squad works on its defensive shortcomings during the Week 11 bye, it could be poised to dominate the Florida State Seminoles, Pittsburgh Panthers and Virginia Tech Hokies on its way to another ACC Championship Game appearance. 

Clemson's defense held its last three ACC Championship Game opponents to a combined 30 points. If a similar effort is on display in the rematch with Notre Dame, the Tigers should give Lawrence plenty of support on both sides of the ball to avenge the loss and land in the playoff. 

New Year's 6

Cotton Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. Texas A&M

Peach Bowl: Florida vs. Cincinnati

Fiesta Bowl: Oregon vs. Wisconsin

Orange Bowl: BYU vs. Miami 

Texas A&M, BYU, Cincinnati and the Florida Gators have lined up beneath Clemson hoping for an upset to occur. 

Florida has the best chance of the quartet to move into a playoff position since it is line to face Alabama in the SEC Championship Game.

The Gators moved into that position when they handed the Georgia Bulldogs their second loss of the campaign. 

Florida is one spot behind Texas A&M in the AP Top 25, while the order is reversed in the Coaches Poll. That alignment does not matter for now since the selection committee's rankings will determine the playoff field. 

If Florida loses in the SEC Championship Game, there is a possibility that BYU or Cincinnati will be the team waiting to take over the No. 4 seed if Clemson falls for a second time. 

At minimum, the pair of Top 10 teams should land in the New Year's Six bowls if they finish the season undefeated. 

If Clemson beats Notre Dame in the rematch, the New Year's Six field should include Florida, Texas A&M, BYU, Cincinnati, the Pac-12 champion, Big 12 winner and two more at-large teams. 

The Miami Hurricanes may represent the ACC in one of the four non-playoff games. They sit at No. 9 and their only loss is to Clemson.

If the Wisconsin Badgers thrive offensively against Michigan, they could be thrust back into the role of Big Ten West favorite. If they make it to the Big Ten Championship Game undefeated, or with one loss, the Badgers could appear in a New Year's Six game as the Big Ten runner-up. 

        

Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90

Statistics obtained from ESPN.com

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