Bowl Projections 2020: CFP Predictions Ahead of Saturday's Week 14 Matchups

Bowl Projections 2020: CFP Predictions Ahead of Saturday's Week 14 Matchups
Edit
1Sugar Bowl (January 1): No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Notre Dame
Edit
2Rose Bowl (January 1): No. 2 Clemson vs. No. 3 Ohio State
Edit

Bowl Projections 2020: CFP Predictions Ahead of Saturday's Week 14 Matchups

Dec 5, 2020

Bowl Projections 2020: CFP Predictions Ahead of Saturday's Week 14 Matchups

There has been little to no drama surrounding the first two College Football Playoff rankings releases. 

The Alabama Crimson Tide, Notre Dame Fighting Irish, Clemson Tigers and Ohio State Buckeyes established themselves as the clear top four teams in the country. 

Only a small handful of other programs can make a claim that they are worthy of landing a position in the national semifinals. 

With each of the top four squads expected to win big on Saturday, the playoff focus continues to shine on December 19. 

Clemson and Notre Dame will face off in the ACC Championship, Game, the sixth-ranked Florida Gators get a shot at Alabama in the SEC Championship Game and Ohio State would likely face the Northwestern Wildcats in the Big Ten Championship Game.

Until those games are played, all we can do is debate the merits of each of the playoff contenders and what has to happen for the top four to change before the semifinals are played on New Year's Day. 

Sugar Bowl (January 1): No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Notre Dame

Notre Dame's Kyren Williams (23) rushes past North Carolina's Jeremiah Gemmell (44) during the fourth quarter of an NCAA college football game Friday, Nov. 27, 2020, in Chapel Hill, N.C. (Robert Willett/The News & Observer via AP, Pool)
Notre Dame's Kyren Williams (23) rushes past North Carolina's Jeremiah Gemmell (44) during the fourth quarter of an NCAA college football game Friday, Nov. 27, 2020, in Chapel Hill, N.C. (Robert Willett/The News & Observer via AP, Pool)

Alabama has looked like the most dominant program in the country for most of the season. 

The Crimson Tide's only hiccup came in the first half against the Georgia Bulldogs on October 17. Nick Saban's team went on to win that contest by 17 points. 

That is the smallest margin of victory recorded by Alabama this season, and it is expected to roll by more than 20 points over the LSU Tigers on Saturday. 

Alabama could face a challenge from an improved Arkansas Razorbacks side on December 12, but it should still win that matchup convincingly.

If the Tide continue to play at such a high level, it will be hard for Florida to beat it in Atlanta in two weeks. The Gators have an explosive offense, led by Heisman Trophy front-runner Kyle Trask, but they do not have as many explosive playmakers as Alabama. 

Alabama has proved that in its three Top 25 victories that it won by a combined total of 74 points. 

Notre Dame should move to 10-0 with a win over the Syracuse Orange on Saturday, but earning its 11th victory in two weeks will be a much more difficult task. 

The Irish have to beat Clemson for a second time and they have to do so with Trevor Lawrence back in the lineup. 

Brian Kelly's side may not be able to produce a total close to the 47 points that won it the first matchup since Clemson's defense improved in Week 13 following a three-week layoff. 

If Clemson continues to tighten up its defensive play, Ian Book and Kyren Williams will experience more trouble moving the ball down the field. 

If Notre Dame loses in a competitive manner, it should remain in the top four since it currently resides at No. 2.

The only way the Irish would drop out of the top four is if they are blown out by Clemson and the selection committee deems the Texas A&M Aggies or Cincinnati Bearcats better than them. 

The other scenario that could arise is if Alabama and Notre Dame both lose on December 19. In that case, the committee would likely have to leave one of those two teams out to include Florida, Clemson and Ohio State.

Rose Bowl (January 1): No. 2 Clemson vs. No. 3 Ohio State

Clemson's ceiling is the No. 2 seed if it beats Notre Dame and Alabama earns the SEC crown. 

Although it is a small sample size with Lawrence back in the lineup, the Tigers looked like their dominant selves of the past in Week 13's blowout victory over the Pittsburgh Panthers. 

That victory marked the first time since October 17 in which the Tigers held an opponent to fewer than 20 points. 

In the three games in between, Clemson allowed Syracuse to score 21, the Boston College Eagles to post 28 first-half points and Notre Dame to score 47 in a double-overtime triumph.

If Lawrence and Co. run through the Virginia Tech Hokies on Saturday, they will make a more convincing argument that they can defeat the No. 2 team in the country and secure a playoff berth. 

If the defense improves and Lawrence is able to work the ball down the field, Clemson will take its sixth straight ACC Championship Game and move into the playoff. 

Ohio State needs to remain on the field for two weeks to play for a conference title on December 19. The Buckeyes are one cancellation away from failing to meet the Big Ten's six-game threshold to qualify for the tilt in Indianapolis. 

For now, all the Buckeyes can do is focus on beating the Michigan State Spartans in a dominant manner to remain at No. 4. 

Ryan Day's program defeated its first three opponents by double digits and fended off a challenge from Indiana in its last game. 

Three victories, including one over a ranked side on December 19, would give Ohio State the best resume possible for the selection committee to evaluate. 

If, for some reason, the Buckeyes can't play on December 12, then the situation gets a bit dicey for all parties involved. 

The Big Ten could opt to give Ohio State a different opponent than the Michigan Wolverines to meet the threshold, or it may be out of luck and would have to face the Wisconsin Badgers or Iowa Hawkeyes in a crossover game on December 19. 

Regardless of who they play, as long as the Buckeyes look like a dominant football team in their upcoming games, the committee should welcome them to the playoff with open arms. 

The committee made it clear in its first two rankings that an undefeated Ohio State team with four games played is preferred over one-loss Texas A&M, one-loss Florida and flawless Cincinnati, all of whom have played double the contests. 

As long as Ohio State is undefeated in some capacity, the committee could be inclined to put it in the top four, and depending on how the ACC shakes out, it would face Clemson in a rematch of the 2020 Fiesta Bowl.

Display ID
2921027
Primary Tag