Bowl Projections 2021: Postseason Predictions, College Football Playoff Outlook
The initial College Football Playoff rankings incited some outrage for the positioning of a few schools.
While it is okay to get upset about where the Cincinnati Bearcats and Oklahoma Sooners landed, it is also wise to take in the perspective of how the rest of the regular season will play out.
The Ohio State Buckeyes and Michigan State Spartans play each other on November 20 and the two teams in the rankings, the Georgia Bulldogs and Alabama Crimson Tide, are on a collision course for the SEC Championship Game.
If Alabama does not play Georgia in December, it means the Crimson Tide lost and are already out of playoff contention, which would clear the path for Cincinnati to move up more spots.
As long as Cincinnati and Oklahoma continue to win, the path to the top four should get clearer, and they might even benefit from an upset or two along the way as well.
College Football Playoff Outlook
College Football Playoff
Orange Bowl (December 31): No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Cincinnati
Cotton Bowl (December 31): No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Oklahoma
New Year's Six
Peach Bowl (December 30): Wake Forest vs. Notre Dame
Fiesta Bowl (January 1): Michigan vs. Auburn
Rose Bowl (January 1): Michigan State vs. Oregon
Sugar Bowl (January 1): Oklahoma State vs. Alabama
No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Cincinnati
Georgia is the unquestioned No. 1 team in the country.
The Bulldogs reinforced their status atop college football with a commanding win over the Florida Gators on Saturday.
Georgia navigated the difficult part of its schedule with double-digit victories over Florida, the Auburn Tigers, Arkansas Razorbacks and Kentucky Wildcats.
Kirby Smart's team does not play a ranked side again until the SEC Championship Game, which could be a defacto playoff quarterfinal if Alabama advances out of the SEC West.
Until an opponent proves it can get the best of Georgia's defense, it is hard to see the Bulldogs losing a game before the playoff.
Cincinnati has some work to do to climb into the top four, but the path to No. 4 can be cleared through a few different matchups, including Georgia's potential SEC title clash with Alabama.
The Bearcats need at least two teams in front of them to lose. If they get an Alabama loss to Georgia, that would go well with a loss by either Ohio State or Michigan State in their head-to-head showdown.
Cincinnati could even get help from the volatile Pac-12, where the Oregon Ducks are far from safe with their remaining schedule. Oregon still has to visit the Washington Huskies and Utah Utes and it has home games against the Washington State Cougars and Oregon State Beavers, both of whom will be gunning for upsets to sit atop the Pac-12 North.
Cincinnati's schedule got a bit easier after last Saturday since the SMU Mustangs displayed plenty of flaws in their first loss of the season. Luke Fickell's team gets the benefit of playing SMU at home.
The toughest test left for Cincinnati will be in the American Athletic Conference title game, which right now would be against the 7-1 Houston Cougars.
If Cincinnati wins that game, it would get another quality win to add to a resume that is bolstered by a victory over the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
Cincinnati needs to keep winning and it needs Notre Dame to continue to rack up wins to have the best resume possible to land the No. 4 seed.
No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Oklahoma
Even though Ohio State is ranked beneath Michigan State, it looks like the best team in the Big Ten at the moment.
The Buckeyes have rolled through their last six opponents thanks to a high-flying offense led by quarterback C.J. Stroud.
Ohio State passed its toughest test since its loss to Oregon on Saturday, as it survived a battle with a tough Penn State Nittany Lions defense. The Buckeyes scored 33 points in their first major Big Ten East triumph.
The good news for Ohio State is that it gets two weeks to prepare now for a home clash with Michigan State, who needed to rally from behind to beat the Michigan Wolverines on Saturday.
Ohio State has a much more dynamic and well-rounded offense compared to Michigan and it can test the Spartans defense in more ways.
If Ryan Day's team clears that hurdle, it still has to beat Michigan on November 27. The Buckeyes have not lost to Michigan since 2011.
If Ohio State reaches the Big Ten Championship Game, its offense should be too explosive for the Wisconsin Badgers or Iowa Hawkeyes to handle. Both Big Ten West sides get by with their defenses, but they will not play a team as explosive as Ohio State in the regular season.
Oklahoma has more work to do than Cincinnati, but it does have the benefit of a difficult schedule and being a Power Five team.
The Sooners are down at No. 8 because of a poor performance against the Kansas Jayhawks two weeks ago, but they rallied back from that tight win with a blowout of the Texas Tech Red Raiders last weekend.
Lincoln Riley's side will run through a three-week gauntlet against the Baylor Bears, Iowa State Cyclones and Oklahoma State Cowboys after its Week 10 bye.
Oklahoma reached the 50-point threshold in three of its last four games, and if Caleb Williams fine-tunes some things during the bye, the Sooners should have enough offensive firepower to run through those games.
If that is the case, Oklahoma should surge up the rankings because two of those three opponents are ranked in the Top 15.
If Oklahoma and Cincinnati both finish undefeated, we should expect the Sooners to jump the Bearcats because of the playoff committee's preference for Power Five teams over Group of Five programs.