10 Bold Predictions for 2022 MLB Free Agency After New CBA Agreement

The MLB lockout has finally been lifted, and the next 48 hours figure to be a whirlwind of news.

"Baseball execs have had nothing to do but plan for more than two months. Similarly, agents have spent days plotting their first phone calls after business resumes—and when it does, there will be a hurricane of activity," ESPN's Buster Olney wrote.

Carlos Correa, Kris Bryant, Trevor Story, Freddie Freeman, Nick Castellanos and Michael Conforto headline an impressive list of impact hitters still available in free agency, while future Hall of Famers Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke are joined by 2021 breakout star Carlos Rodon as the top names on the pitching market.

Here, we've made 10 predictions for how the free-agent market will unfold. All of the players named below might sign contracts within a matter of days.

Let the free-agent frenzy begin!

With Ronald Acuna Jr. injured and Cristian Pache toiling at the Triple-A level, the Atlanta Braves entered trade season last summer in desperate need of outfield help.

They wound up trading for Adam Duvall, Joc Pederson, Jorge Soler and Eddie Rosario, and each of those players made a significant impact down the stretch and into the postseason, with Rosario winning NLCS MVP and Soler taking home World Series MVP.

Duvall has another year of club control, but the other three were rentals who are all still searching for their next contract in free agency.

With Acuna likely to begin the year on the injured list, Atlanta's current projected outfield is Duvall, Pache and prospect Drew Waters, who hit .240 with a 30.9 percent strikeout rate at Triple-A last season.

Matching one-year, $10 million deals for Soler and Rosario would represent a modest raise for both players after Soler earned $8.05 million in his final year of arbitration and Rosario inked a one-year, $8 million contract with Cleveland.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have a pair of young, front-line starters in Walker Buehler and Julio Urias who are both coming off top-10 finishes in NL Cy Young voting, but there's still work to be done assembling the rotation behind them.

Tony Gonsolin and free-agent signing Andrew Heaney are in the mix for spots, David Price is still around after splitting 2021 between the bullpen and rotation, Dustin May will be a year removed from Tommy John surgery in May, and Trevor Bauer is a wild card after news broke in February that he won't face criminal charges on sexual assault allegations.

That's a lot of options, but it's also a lot of uncertainty for a team squarely in the title hunt.

A short-term deal to bring back Clayton Kershaw and make sure he retires in a Dodgers uniform seems like a no-brainer, and once again pairing him with former co-ace Zack Greinke would give the rotation some veteran depth behind those two budding stars.

MLB Trade Rumors predicted a one-year, $20 million deal for Kershaw at the start of the offseason, and that seems reasonable. A similar one-year pact in the $12-15 million range might be enough to lure Greinke back to Chavez Ravine.

The latest Japanese League star poised to make the leap stateside, Seiya Suzuki hit .317/.433/.636 with a career-high 38 home runs in 2021 while tallying nearly as many walks (88) as strikeouts (89), and he has a .943 OPS with 189 home runs in nine seasons.

The 27-year-old was posted by the Hiroshima Carp just 10 days before the lockout was instituted, which means he'll have 20 days after it is lifted to come to terms with an MLB team.

Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe reported in January that the San Francisco Giants and Seattle Mariners are viewed as the favorites to sign him, while MLB writer Peter Gammons took that one step further and identified the Giants as the leading contenders.

After a 107-win season last year, the Giants do still feel like a team that's one big addition away from being set for the upcoming season, and the outfield is a logical place to add with LaMonte Wade Jr., Steven Duggar, Mike Yastrzemski and Austin Slater currently penciled into roster spots.

A four- or five-year deal somewhere in the $10-12 million range is where predictions have generally landed this offseason, but that could climb if enough teams. Let's say he ultimately signs a four-year, $56 million deal with the Giants.

Carlos Rodon is one of the more polarizing cases on the free-agent market this offseason.

The 29-year-old put together a career year in 2021, going 13-5 with a 2.37 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 185 strikeouts in 132.2 innings, earning his first All-Star selection and finishing fifth in AL Cy Young voting.

However, he has a long history of arm issues, and he spent much of the second half last season battling arm fatigue, throwing a total of 43 innings after the All-Star break.

It was telling that the Chicago White Sox did not make him a qualifying offer, though there's still a good chance he'll be able to exceed that $18.4 million figure. Either way, a one-year deal seems to be the most likely outcome for his market.

That means any team that views itself as a contender in 2022 should be interested, and a potential bidding frenzy for the best available arm could drive his price north of $20 million on a short-term pact.

The Los Angeles Angels are highly motivated to do everything they can to field a contender with Mike Trout's prime continuing to tick away, and after already signing Noah Syndergaard and Michael Lorenzen to bolster the staff, Rodon would put the finishing touches on a revamped rotation.

After three straight years with a 120 OPS+ and a pair of 6.0-WAR seasons in 2018 and 2019, Trevor Story struggled through a down year by his standards. He hit .251/.329/.471 for a 103 OPS+ with 24 home runs, 20 steals and 4.2 WAR, though he picked up the pace considerably after the All-Star break to finish on a high note.

He stands alongside Carlos Correa as the only shortstops remaining from a loaded offseason at the position, as Corey Seager, Javier Baez and Marcus Semien have each inked six-figure deals.

While Correa still figures to cash in with a megadeal, it might be in Story's best interest to take an approach similar to what Semien did last offseason when he signed a one-year, $18 million deal coming off a down year and parlayed that into a seven-year, $175 million contract this winter.

There are a handful of contenders that could use a short-term stopgap at shortstop, with the Houston Astros and Philadelphia Phillies atop the list. Top prospects Jeremy Pena and Bryson Stott are viewed as the future at the position for those two teams, respectively, but easing them into the starting role would be preferred.

The Astros' situation is a bit more dire with no clear in-house option besides Pena, while the Phillies can lean on Didi Gregorius until Stott is ready, so Houston should be viewed as the front-runner.

Michael Conforto looked like a prime candidate to accept the qualifying offer following a down year in 2021, but he instead rejected the one-year, $18.4 million deal from the New York Mets. The 29-year-old hit .232/.344/.384 with 14 home runs in 479 plate appearances in 2021, just a year after he logged a career-high 154 OPS+ and two years removed from a 33-homer, 92-RBI, 3.6-WAR season.

His age and track record make him one of the better buy-low options on the market, but given the money he turned down from the Mets, it's fair to wonder just how high his asking price is going to be and if that's going to scare some teams away.

One contender that desperately needs an offensive infusion is the Milwaukee Brewers. They have the pitching to be a legitimate title contender, but after getting shut out twice by the Atlanta Braves in the NLDS a year ago, it's clear they need more thunder in the lineup.

Despite their small-market status, the Brewers have waded into the deep end of the free-agent market a handful of times in the past, signing guys like Aramis Ramirez, Kyle Lohse and Matt Garza to lucrative deals.

A three-year, $54 million deal would give Conforto roughly the same salary he turned down in rejecting the qualifying offer, but with two additional years locked in. He would then hit the market again at the age of 32 with a chance to secure another multiyear deal.

The San Diego Padres are one of a handful of teams without an obvious in-house solution to address the expected implementation of the universal DH.

According to their Roster Resource depth chart page at FanGraphs, utility man Jurickson Profar is currently penciled into that role, while non-roster invitee Nomar Mazara is pegged for the starting left field job with Tommy Pham departing in free agency.

Adding Nick Castellanos to a middle of the order that already includes Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Jake Cronenworth as well as veterans Eric Hosmer and Wil Myers would give an already-potent lineup even more power.

The 30-year-old hit .309/.362/.576 with 38 doubles, 34 home runs and 100 RBI in 2021 before opting out of the final two years of his four-year, $64 million deal with the Cincinnati Reds.

Replacing those two years with a new four-year, $72 million pact would give him a slight raise and two additional years of financial certainty, while the Padres would take a step toward closing the gap in the NL West race.

Would the Atlanta Braves really let homegrown superstar Freddie Freeman get away?

"There is a growing belief that Freeman will land somewhere outside of Atlanta because of the standoff in his negotiations. The Braves offered $135 million over five years, sources say, and Freeman is looking for a six-year deal," Buster Olney of ESPN wrote a few weeks ago.

Whether it's a trade to acquire Matt Olson from the Oakland Athletics, a pivot to Anthony Rizzo in free agency or something else entirely, the Braves have other options to fill the void at first base.

The question then becomes who will be willing to offer up that sixth year.

If they decide against making a run at Carlos Correa and Trevor Story in favor of a low-cost stopgap to top prospect Anthony Volpe at shortstop, the New York Yankees make a ton of sense. Freeman's left-handed bat would slot perfectly between right-handed hitters Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton in the middle of the lineup, and his leadership in the clubhouse could be just what that team is missing.

A report from Jon Heyman of MLB Network that the division rival Tampa Bay Rays made an offer to Freeman prior to the lockout is even more incentive for the Yankees to pounce.

The Seattle Mariners have already made one splashy addition this offseason, signing AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray to a five-year, $115 million contract to slot into the staff ace role. They also acquired second baseman Adam Frazier from the San Diego Padres.

That doesn't mean they're finished.

With an exciting young core starting to take shape and more elite-level prospect talent on the way, the Mariners are a more attractive free agency destination than they've been in years, and a playoff drought that stretches back to 2001 is all the incentive the front office should need to aggressively pursue the window that seems to be opening.

Following the retirement of longtime third baseman Kyle Seager, the hot corner is one spot on the roster that could stand to be upgraded. Abraham Toro is currently the favorite for the starting job, but he could just as easily fill a utility role after spending the bulk of his time at second base a year ago.

Kris Bryant would give the team a powerful middle-of-the-order bat and a versatile defender who could handle third base in the short term and perhaps a corner outfield position down the road once top prospect Noelvi Marte is ready to push for a job.

A seven-year, $175 million deal might seem like a huge investment, but for a Mariners team that paid Seager $18 million in 2021, it's not that much of a stretch to the payroll.

The 10-year, $325 million deal that Corey Seager signed with the Texas Rangers will be the number to beat for Carlos Correa once the free-agency market kicks back into action.

Correa is roughly five months younger, and he's coming off a significantly better season. He posted a 131 OPS+ with 34 doubles, 26 home runs and 92 RBI, won his first Gold Glove at shortstop and racked up 7.2 WAR in 148 games to finish fifth in AL MVP voting.

There's also the 10-year, $341 million extension that Francisco Lindor signed with the New York Mets to consider, and those two players have followed similar career trajectories. Both debuted in 2015 when the finished first and second in Rookie of the Year voting, both have been named to multiple All-Star teams, and Correa (34.1) has a narrow edge over Lindor (31.1) in career WAR.

That could mean 10 years and $350 million is the number that it takes to get Correa to sign on the dotted line.

It certainly doesn't look like the Chicago Cubs are gearing up for another full-scale rebuild after Marcus Stroman signed to a three-year, $71 million deal that includes an opt-out after two years, and there some clear redundancy in the current up-the-middle duo of Nick Madrigal and Nico Hoerner.

This would be a huge move, but there's money to spend on the North Side after last summer's fire sale, and Correa would give them a superstar to build around going forward.

All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs.