MLB's Biggest Free Agency, Trade Winners and Losers of the Last Week

Because Major League Baseball's lockout halted the 2021-22 offseason before teams were finished making signings and trades, things always were going to get dramatic after business resumed.

Since that's exactly what has happened over the last few days, we thought we'd size up the biggest winners and losers since the free-agent and trade markets opened back up.

We considered both individual players and teams, though the general idea for both was to weigh expectations against reality. If what were surely high hopes have been realized, they're a winner. If not, they're a loser.

Let's start with a reunion in Los Angeles that simply had to happen.  

On Sunday, the Los Angeles Dodgers ensured that their relationship with franchise icon Clayton Kershaw will keep going for one more year.

The Dodgers re-signed the ace left-hander to a one-year contract worth $17 million. That figure arguably represents a bargain, as it's less than the $23.3 million he earned in 2021 and below the $18.4 million they might have paid him if they had extended him a qualifying offer.

Granted, Kershaw will turn 34 on March 19, and he isn't the same pitcher who was a regular Cy Young Award contender between 2011 and 2017. After making only 22 starts because of forearm issues last year, it's unclear how much of a workload he's even capable of handling.

Even in his diminished state, though, Kershaw still mustered a 115 ERA+ and a 6.9 strikeout-to-walk ratio last year. Since they only need him to be a No. 3 starter, the Dodgers would gladly take more of that from him in 2022.

Besides, things just feel more right with the world now that a player and team who've had a ton of success together since first joining forces in 2006 are running it back.

On the other hand, Kershaw returning to the Dodgers is a bummer for the Texas Rangers.

Though it's unclear whether they ever had a real chance of luring the Dallas native back home, that sure seemed to be the goal. Between manager Chris Woodward and shortstop Corey Seager, at least two prominent former Dodgers-turned-Rangers had been trying to talk Kershaw into joining them.

Beyond just being an interesting story, Kershaw going to the Rangers also would have further solidified their contention chances for 2022. Even after spending $556 million on Seager, Marcus Semien and Jon Gray, they frankly needed a pitcher like Kershaw in a rotation short on both talent and experience.

As if missing out on Kershaw wasn't bad enough, the Rangers then took yet another L on Monday when the Oakland Athletics traded Matt Olson to a different suitor. The slugging first baseman was on Texas' radar as an upgrade over Nathaniel Lowe at first base, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News.

With Olson now off the board, the Rangers will have to pay what it takes to sign Freddie Freeman to attain such an upgrade.

While Clayton Kershaw passed on a chance for a homecoming, Matt Olson will now get to make one of his own.

The Atlanta native joined the defending World Series champions by way of a five-player deal on Monday. He would have been under the team's control through 2023, but he now may be in town all the way through 2030 by way of a new eight-year, $168 million contract that has an option for a ninth year.

This might seem like an exorbitant amount at first, but the 27-year-old Olson ranks third among first basemen in wins above replacement since 2018. He's averaged 38 home runs per 162 games and had Gold Glove-winning defense in 2018 and 2019.

Strikeouts had been an issue for Olson, but that changed in 2021, as he whiffed in only 16.8 percent of his plate appearances. That was about half as often as he had fanned in 2020.

In replacing Freddie Freeman with Olson, Atlanta has gotten significantly younger at first base without necessarily signing up for lesser production. Although Atlanta had to trade three of its 10 best prospects for Olson, the team likely won't come to regret this trade.

As good as Matt Olson is, it's understandable if anyone in Atlanta felt torn upon hearing about the trade.

If the trade alone didn't slam the door shut on Freddie Freeman's possible return to Atlanta, Olson's extension certainly did. His $168 million pact is the largest in the club's history, surpassing Freeman's $135 million deal from 2014 by $33 million.

Olson might be able to account for Freeman's numbers. But Freeman was also a leader and a mentor in Atlanta's clubhouse who's already missed, and that may be far more difficult to replace.

"He's been a cornerstone guy," shortstop Dansby Swanson said, per ESPN's Buster Olney. "A guy who should have his number retired as an Atlanta Brave. That part is disappointing... and at the same time, there's the friendship component."

The reaction among Atlanta fans was about what you'd expect following the trade. And while Olson's new contract is defensible on its own, it's fair to ask whether Atlanta might have been better off committing that type of money to a new deal for Freeman.

As the Oakland A's tear down on one side of the Bay Area, the team on the other side continued its busy offseason by signing Carlos Rodon on Monday.

The All-Star lefty's two-year, $44 million deal is a relatively modest commitment. But that windfall was seemingly out of his reach as recently as a year ago.

Rodon had shoulder surgery in 2017 and Tommy John surgery in 2019, and he returned from the latter to post an 8.22 ERA in four outings for the Chicago White Sox in 2020. As such, it was no great surprise when they non-tendered him.

Rodon then overhauled pretty much everything, and it paid off amid a 2021 season punctuated by a no-hitter in April and a final ERA of 2.37. His shoulder betrayed him again in the second half of the season, yet he still featured the year's most valuable fastball and one of its best sliders.

Rodon has the upside to account for what the Giants lost when Kevin Gausman departed as a free agent before the lockout. They also have the depth and the innovative coaching staff to potentially keep him on the mound more consistently.

Back on the other side of the country, the New York Yankees have a new shortstop whose name is notably not Carlos Correa.

After coming over from the Minnesota Twins in a trade on Sunday, Isiah Kiner-Falefa figures to man short for the Yankees going forward. This wasn't the most surprising development, as the Bombers were linked to the Gold Glover even before the lockout.

However, some Yankees fans are feeling disappointed. Though Correa hasn't exactly endeared himself to the Bronx faithful over the years, the general desire to see him in pinstripes seemed especially strong after the Chicago Cubs hypothetically took themselves out of the running for Correa by signing Andrelton Simmons.

Kiner-Falefa's presence doesn't necessarily preclude New York from signing Correa. But according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the Yankees don't want to do a long-term contract for a shortstop and thus might only be interested in Correa on a one-year deal.

That's perhaps not an impossibility. But considering that the 27-year-old superstar always has been and still is the best player on the open market, it's certainly an improbability.

Even if it potentially nixed them as a Carlos Correa destination, dare we say the trade that the Yankees are looking much better on this side of the lockout.

In Sunday's trade, the Yankees swapped third baseman Gio Urshela and catcher Gary Sanchez out for Isiah Kiner-Falefa, third baseman Josh Donaldson and catcher Ben Rortvedt. Donaldson was the headliner, and he should serve the Yankees well even if his MVP-winning form of 2015 is now a distant memory.

To wit, the 36-year-old Donaldson still mustered a 127 OPS+ and 26 home runs in 2021. That was without much help from Target Field's dimensions, whereas Yankee Stadium's short porch should boost the right-handed slugger's opposite-field power.

For their part, Kiner-Falefa and Rortvedt should be helpful on the run-prevention side. The former is a fix for the bad defense that the Yankees got out of shortstop in 2021. The latter is the opposite of Sanchez in that he's actually a good receiver behind the plate.

To round out their infield, the Yankees subsequently agreed to re-sign first baseman Anthony Rizzo to a two-year deal worth $30-35 million on Tuesday, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today. He's the extra left-handed hitter they needed in their lineup, and his presence should open up a trade market for Luke Voit.

Even if the storylines haven't all been positive, we've talked to this point about five different teams that have put some kind of effort into getting better throughout the offseason.

By contrast, the Cincinnati Reds have done...not that.

Even before the lockout, they traded Tucker Barnhart, lost Wade Miley to waivers and had Nick Castellanos opt out of his contract. Since the lockout lifted, they've dealt Sonny Gray to the Twins and also traded Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suarez to the Seattle Mariners.

The Reds would have their fans believe that this isn't a teardown. General manager Nick Krall told reporters that they're "trying to be the best team we can be in 2022 and also set ourselves up for long-term success and sustainability."

Nevertheless, there's no denying that a Reds roster that was only good enough to win 83 games last season has lost a lot while gaining very little. Because the club's payroll is projected to decline by $10 million, the only real winner here is owner Bob Castellini's checkbook.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant. Contract data courtesy of Spotrac.