The Biggest Boom-or-Bust Players in the 2022 NFL Draft

The 2022 NFL draft in Las Vegas is about one month away. And the mission between now and then is the same for all of the teams that have a pick in Round 1: Select an impact player who will have a positive impact on the franchise for years to come.

The thing is, being a top-32 pick doesn't guarantee that a prospect will be a star in the pros. Far from it.

For every Joe Burrow, there's a JaMarcus Russell.

For every Nick Bosa, there's a Barkevious Mingo.

For every Jalen Ramsey, there's a Justin Gilbert.

For every Quenton Nelson, there's a Luke Joeckel.

The only sure thing is there are no sure things. But with that said, there are some players who have a lot more bust potential than others. Players who are as likely to blow up in their teams' faces as blow up on the field.

And every one of these potential first-round prospects in 2022 fits that bill.

There is a real chance that Liberty quarterback Malik Willis will wind up being not only a first-round pick but also the first player at his position selected in the 2022 NFL draft. The 6'0½", 219-pounder has arguably the strongest arm of any signal-caller in this class. As Dan Parr reported for NFL.com, Willis wowed scouts with his arm strength and athleticism at his pro day.

"More or less, I was just trying to show them anything they wanted to see," Willis said. "I'm just trying to come out here and put it all on the table."

After that outing, there has been mounting speculation that Willis could go as high as No. 2 overall to the Detroit Lions.

That could be a mistake.

In B/R's scouting report for Willis, Nate Tice called him a "big project for whichever NFL team selects him" while labeling him a second-round prospect. His concerns about Willis' ability to read the field are echoed by Derrik Klassen of Football Outsiders.

"Willis comfortably rocks the best arm and athletic profile among this year's quarterbacks," he said. "No other player is close in either category, at least not among any of the serious prospects. However, Willis is a redshirt junior whose film is wholly uninspiring from a processing perspective."

There's also the matter of the competition he faced at Liberty—or lack thereof. The toughest test the Flames had last season as an independent program was against No. 15 Ole Miss in November. Willis was mostly awful, with 16 completions in 25 attempts for 173 yards and three interceptions.

It's fair to wonder how he will fare against even stiffer competition.

There isn't a player who helped his draft stock more at this year's NFL Scouting Combine than Georgia edge-rusher Travon Walker (B/R scouting report here).

The 6'5", 272-pounder ran a 4.51-second 40-yard dash and posted a 35½-inch vertical and a 123-inch broad jump. He peeled off a 6.89-second three-cone drill and a 4.32-second short shuttle.

Per DraftKings, Walker is now the betting favorite to be the second overall pick. Tony Pauline of Pro Football Network went one further.

"Sources have confirmed that the Jaguars have targeted Walker as a player they could take with the first pick," Pauline wrote. "Sources have also confirmed that Walker will be sitting down with the front office and top brass of the organization in the coming weeks. The team will do its due diligence on Georgia's defensive lineman."

Pauline also compared Walker's predraft rise to that of Solomon Thomas (third overall in 2017) and Dante Fowler Jr. (third overall in 2015).

Those names should give the Jaguars pause (especially that second one, since it was Jacksonville who drafted Fowler). Neither of those players lived up to their draft slots, though Fowler had one big year with the Los Angeles Rams.

For all the athleticism that Walker showed in Indianapolis, Klassen tabbed him as a second rounder at B/R. Walker amassed just 9.5 sacks over three years with the Bulldogs.

The youngster may have potential galore, but that hasn't equaled production.

And in the NFL, the latter is all that matters.

There is little question who the top five quarterbacks are in the 2022 class. Joining Malik Willis of Liberty are Cincinnati's Desmond Ridder, Pittsburgh's Kenny Pickett, Ole Miss' Matt Corral and North Carolina's Sam Howell (B/R scouting report here).

However, when it comes to who slots where, draftniks are all over the place.

There are some, like Cam Mellor of Pro Football Network, who believe that Howell could be the first player at the position to be drafted.

"Howell makes every throw and has arguably some of the best downfield accuracy in not only this class but the past few classes," Mellor wrote.

While it's true that Howell displays plus accuracy on throws down the field, the 6'1", 218-pounder has multiple areas of concern.

He lacks ideal size at the position. His numbers in 2021 weren't terrible (62.5 percent completion rate, 3,056 yards, 24 touchdowns, nine interceptions), but they were down from 2020. And as Michael Renner wrote for Pro Football Focus, Howell has next to no experience functioning in a pro-style offense:

"Over the past three seasons, 1,096 of Howell's 2,505 snaps were RPOs, with 333 of those pulled for pass plays. That was 285 more called RPOs and 94 more RPO dropbacks than any other Power Five quarterback. That type of offense simply doesn't exist in the NFL. He'll have to basically relearn the position once he gets to the league, and that won't be easy if he's thrown to the fire."

Howell doesn't have the wheels to rely on his legs at the NFL level. And having to relearn the position is a tall ask for a player some see as a top-10 pick.

There was a time when Oregon edge-rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux (B/R scouting report here) was considered the favorite to be the first overall pick. Now he could slip outside of the top five. Maybe even the top 10.

At first glance, Thibodeaux appears to have everything an elite edge-rushing prospect needs to succeed. He has length, bend and ridiculous athleticism. But ESPN's Todd McShay reported at the Senior Bowl in January that some teams are concerned that Thibodeaux doesn't go all-out on every play:

"I heard a lot about Oregon defensive end Kayvon Thibodeaux, including concerns that he just doesn't play with the same fire as some other top prospects. His ceiling is high, but the floor is lower than what you want for a top-five pick. And based on a handful of conversations, it wouldn't shock me if Thibodeaux fell out of the top five."

For his part, Thibodeaux refuted the assertion, although he told reporters at the combine that his game needs refinement:

"If you're a student of the game. you know what you could get better at, and for me, I feel like sometimes I get stalemated, sometimes I can't have a second or third move, I can't continue my pass rush and really finish through. I feel like there were a couple sacks that were left out there because I got stuck on blocks, so just getting off blocks and creating that extra move to finish through."

For what it's worth, there was another high-end pass-rusher who recently entered the league among effort concerns.

Myles Garrett has done OK in Cleveland.

The offensive tackle spot is one of the most coveted positions in every draft. 

Teams picking in the second half of the first round can only dream of landing a prospect like Alabama's Evan Neal or North Carolina State's Ikem Okunwu. But Northern Iowa's Trevor Penning could be an option, and in his B/R scouting report for the 6'7", 325-pounder, Brandon Thorn wrote that the big man brings some nastiness to the running game.

"Penning is a three-year starter with starts at both tackle spots and guard," he wrote. "He has prototypical size with light feet and high-level power to play on an island and generate movement as a run-blocker on double-teams, down blocks and frontside kick-outs."

The problem is that Penning has been a lot less consistent in pass protection, especially against quicker defenders.

"I understand the intrigue with Penning, but he still has issues," Nick Falato wrote for Giants Country. "His strike timing, placement and inconsistent hands in pass protection allowed smaller-level athletes to get into his outside shoulder far too often. His hands need work, and he has to be a more disciplined player."

This isn't to say that Penning can't grow into a good NFL tackle—or even a great one. But he'll need to adjust to pass-rushers who are markedly bigger and much faster than anyone he played against at Northern Iowa. That could take time.   

And fanbases tend to get nervous when first-round picks don't make significant impacts in short order.

At the NFL Scouting Combine, LSU's Derek Stingley Jr. (B/R scouting report here) was asked who he believed was the best cornerback prospect in this class.

"I know myself, and I know that when I'm at the best version of myself, I'm the greatest," he told reporters.

In 2019, few would have argued with him. Stingley was fantastic as a freshman, earning consensus All-American honors. However, he didn't have as many splash plays over the past two years, in part because he battled injuries.

For his part, the 6'0", 190-pounder disputed the notion that his level of play fell off appreciably.

"Going into my second year and throughout my second year, I felt it was just as good as my freshman year," he said. "Freshman year I had over 90 targets. Sophomore year I had 30. If anything, that should just say I was doing my job."

With that said, though, Stingley made it through just three games in 2021 before a nagging foot injury required surgery. He said at the combine that teams haven't expressed a lot of concern about his foot, but pundits like Daniel Kelly of Jets Country most assuredly have:

"Having a foot injury for a corner is like having a problem with a tire on a sports car, only it is not always as quick of a fix. Nagging foot injuries can continue to be a problem, especially for a corner. It can be a problem pushing off, changing direction and jumping. The fact he tried to play with the injury, and could not, is highly concerning."

If Stingley recaptures his 2019 form, he could be one of the first round's biggest steals. But if he continues to struggle to stay on the field, the "B" word could enter the conversation in relatively short order.

Much like at the quarterback position, there are a number of potential first-round prospects at wide receiver—and no clear-cut No. 1.

For Justin Dunbar of RotoBaller, the top guy in this year's class is Arkansas' Treylon Burks, a 6'2", 225-pounder who racked up 66 catches for 1,104 yards and 11 scores in 2021:

"Burks is truly one of a kind. The irony that he happened to play for the Arkansas Razorbacks is magnificent; he plays just like a mighty hog. In his junior season, he averaged an absurd 9.3 yards after catch/reception, utilizing a physical play style to his advantage. Simply put, Burks' production has been absolutely marvelous."

Burks was certainly productive. And as Nate Tice wrote in his B/R scouting report for Burks, his physical gifts are plentiful. But he also needs to significantly refine his route-running:

"Burks is a unique talent who has the potential to be a No. 1-type option at the NFL level, but he is far from a finished product. He will need to improve on some details to make the most of his ability, which makes his floor to be an every-down contributor a bit lower when he starts his professional career. But the unique skill set Burks has at his size and with his athleticism makes his potential sky-high. And he could be one of the most dynamic weapons in the NFL if he goes to the right team with a creative play-caller and a little bit of patience."

The Razorbacks didn't scheme Burks open so much as just throw the ball in his vicinity and let him go get it. That's not going to fly in the NFL, at least not consistently. So while it can be argued that there isn't a wideout in the 2022 class with a higher ceiling, there also may not be a likely first-rounder with a lower floor.

This last one is a bummer.

Most of the attention regarding Michigan edge-rushers has gone to Aidan Hutchinson in the lead-up to the draft. Rightly so. He's the opposite of a boom-or-bust pick. 

But David Ojabo (B/R scouting report here) became a first-round prospect in his own right after amassing 11 sacks and 12 tackles for loss a year ago. Kyle Crabbs the Draft Network paid the 6'4", 250-pounder quite the compliment by comparing him to Chicago Bears edge-rusher Robert Quinn, also writing:

"Ojabo has freakish burst and range as an athlete to help make an impact on the perimeter as both a pass-rusher and in pursuit. Ojabo isn't a perfect prospect, but his ceiling may be as high as any 2022 pass-rusher not named Kayvon Thibodeaux, and prospects with these kinds of physical gifts don't last very long in April."

But everything changed at Michigan's pro day. While taking part in position drills, Ojabo went down in a heap with what wound up being a torn Achilles tendon. It's believed the injury will sideline Ojabo for about six months, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter.

Given the timing of the injury, Ojabo could be back at practice in October. And we just saw Los Angeles Rams running back Cam Akers make a remarkably quick return to action after tearing his Achilles before training camp last year.

It's possible that a team picking later in Round 1 will think it's worth rolling the dice on Ojabo (and his impressive athleticism).

But given how important explosiveness is to Ojabo's game, it can't be denied that his injury has made him an exponentially riskier pick.