Mountain West Basketball Tournament 2011: Ranking the Potential Upsets
The Mountain West tournament got under way Wednesday with TCU beating Wyoming 70-61 in a matchup between the the lowest two seeds in the tournament. The No. 9 seed Horned Frogs, who only won one conference game all season, earned the right to take on top seed BYU Thursday as the rest of the tournament gets under way.
The Mountain West tournament will be an interesting tournament to keep an eye on because of the many intriguing story lines it will have.
How will BYU perform as they continue to learn how to play without Brandon Davies, who was the teams best interior option?
Will San Diego State reach the finals and potentially have a chance to beat BYU for the first time in three tries? They have not lost to a team not named BYU all season?
Will any of the other teams step up and show the rest of the college basketball landscape that the Mountain West isn't just about the Cougars and the Aztecs?
Could an under-the-radar team get hot and win the tournament, stealing a bid from some bubble team in another conference?
These are all questions that will be answered over the course of the next three days. However, as we have all learned, sometimes you need to expect the unexpected when it comes to these conference tournaments.
Here are some potential upsets in this year's Mountain West tournament.
New Mexico over Colorado State: 2nd Round
This is a game between two teams clearly going in two different directions.
The Lobos, the No. 5 seed in the tournament, are on a three-game winning streak, including a 82-64 dismantling of BYU in Provo a week ago. Senior guard Dairese Gary has really played well of late, including pouring in 32 points two weeks ago at TCU.
The Rams, on the other hand, have lost three of their last four games. To be fair, those games have come against some of the conference's best teams, but Colorado State has simply failed to compete.
The two teams split their season series. The Lobos beat the Rams by seven points on their home floor in January, but the Rams returned the favor a month later beating the Lobos by six.
Look for New Mexico to prevail in this one.
New Mexico over BYU: Potential Tournament Semifinal Matchup
The Cougars should make quick work of TCU on Thursday, but may run into problems on Friday if they meet New Mexico in the semifinals.
The Lobos have had BYU's number this season, winning both games by an average of 13.5 points.
Life will not get any easier for BYU, as they will be playing their third game without Davies in the lineup. In their only game since losing to New Mexico, they throttled Wyoming in their regular season finale, but that doesn't say much.
Despite their two victories against BYU, New Mexico will be the hungrier team in this matchup. Their only hope of reaching the NCAA's is to win the entire tournament, while BYU could feel content with their NCAA birth already locked up.
UNLV over San Diego State: Potential Semifinal Matchup
The Aztecs have only lost to one team so far this season, but that might change come Friday.
In what would basically be a road game, San Diego State could find themselves squaring off against UNLV, the host school.
The location of the game won't be the only reason the Runnin' Rebels will have confidence in this potential matchup; UNLV also played well in both games, albeit losses, against San Diego State this season.
Both losses to the Aztecs came by six points, and UNLV played San Diego State better than any team not named BYU in the country.
UNLV is also playing very well and currently riding a 5-game winning streak.
It is very hard to beat a team three times in one season, and UNLV likely won't let that happen in front of their home fans.
New Mexico over UNLV: Potential Tournament Championship Matchup
What was that I said about beating a team three times in one season?
It's very hard to do.
UNLV and New Mexico played two close, exciting games earlier this season, including an overtime thriller in February. The Runnin' Rebels won both games and did so by a combined 4 points.
Both teams will be hot entering this contest, but the Lobos will be the more desperate of the two teams. UNLV has likely already locked up an at-large bid, although their home court advantage will provide extra motivation.
In the end, though, it won't be enough. Dairese Gary will lead his team to victory, giving the Mountain West four teams in next weeks NCAA tournament.