Sleeping Giants: What Big Schools Will Surprise Come Tourney Time

The word of the year is parity.

Jay Bilas loves it. Jay Williams loves it. Jay Somebody loves it. But more importantly, anyone looking for an exciting NCAA Tournament loves it.

As conference tournaments roll on, it is becoming apparent that no team is going to have an easy road to the Final Four.

Pittsburgh loses to UConn. Notre Dame loses to Louisville. Wisconsin loses to Penn St. Purdue loses to Michigan State. Ohio State struggles. North Carolina struggles.

Parity.

So as the No. 1 seeds become less and less predictable, and the bubble becomes less and less predictable, analysts will undoubtedly begin to look at mid-majors for teams that can knock off these underachieving schools.

Almost every small school seeded from six through 13 will get deemed a possible Cinderella. But what big schools have a chance to wreak havoc on our brackets?

Criteria: Have to be from a major conference and have to be projected as a seven seed or lower (Joe Lunardi's Bracketology) 

Why They Might Surprise:

• FG Pct. They lead the Big East at 47.8 Pct

• Experience. Three of their top four scorers are seniors, and only one freshman is in the main rotation. Who doesn't love experienced guards come Tourney time?

• Tempo. They like to slow it down. Combine that with their stellar field goal percentage and they will be in any game.

Why They Might Lose:

• Injury concerns. They are 0-3 without senior PG Chris Wright. If he doesn't return for the Tourney, all bets are off.

• Inconsistent play. Julian Vaughn was a key part to their success earlier in the Big East season, but he has seen his minutes decrease recently. They need him to score around 10 points a game to be successful. He hasn't done it in seven games.

Obviously Chris Wright is the key here. It's pretty simple. If he comes back, they are better than a seven seed, if he doesn't they are not. Keep your eyes on the injury reports.

Why They Might Surprise:

• Chameleons. They are Big Ten team, so you know they are used to grinding it out and playing hard defense. While they probably don't want to, the Spartans aren't afraid to get into transition, either. Being able to adapt your style of play can be a big factor in upsetting someone.

• Leadership. I swear Kalin Lucas has been around for about seven years, but nonetheless he is one of the best point guards in the country.

• Rebounding. Michigan State always seems to be a good rebounding team, and that's still the case this year. They are second in the conference in rebounds per game

Why They Might Lose:

• Turnovers. They often have trouble taking care of the ball. If they run into a team that likes to press and run, that could spell trouble for the Spartans.

• Scoring: They often go into spells where they have trouble scoring, but that could always just be a product of Big Ten play.

• The suspension of Korie Lucious hurt as the Spartans went into a bit of a tailspin without him. They've had a little bit of trouble being consistent without him.

Tom Izzo always seems to have his teams playing their best basketball March, and that seems to be the case this year, as the Spartans pulled off an impressive victory over Purdue and are looking better than they have all year. If they don't get that 8/9 matchup, a trip to the Sweet 16 for this team isn't out of the picture.  

Why They Might Surprise:

• Rebounding. Tobias Harris and Brian Williams lead the Vols as they lead the SEC in boards.

• Big-game tested. They have wins against Pittsburgh, Villanova, Memphis, and Vanderbilt twice. They also have close losses against USC, Florida and Kentucky. This team won't back down to anyone.

• Defense. They play terrific half court defense. Teams are scoring less than a point per possession against them, good enough for fourth in the league.

Why They Might Lose:

• Offense. This is one of the worst scoring teams that Bruce Pearl has ever had, as the Vols are usually known for putting up lots of points. They rank near the bottom of the league in scoring and shooting percentage. They don't make many threes either.

• Inconsistent. You simply don't know which team will show up. They followed up a big road win over Vandy with a home loss against Mississippi State.

The unpredictability of this team will make it hard to advance them in your bracket. In the days of Curtis Lofton, they are always seemed to disappoint, but last year they advanced to the Elite Eight as a six seed. Behind the play of junior Scotty Hopson, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Volunteers surprise

Why They Might Surprise:

• Parallels to last year. The Huskies have almost the same team as last year minus Quincy Pondexter but with the addition of C.J. Wilcox and Terrence Ross. They lost focus throughout the season but responded by winning the Pac 10 Tournament and upsetting two teams as an 11 seed. They seem to following that same path this year, as this talented team is waking up just in time for March

• Scoring. The Huskies love to get the ball up the court and shoot as quick as possible. They shoot and make a lot of threes. Wilcox, Ross, Scott Suggs and Isaiah Thomas can all be extremely dangerous from the outside.

• Depth. They have nine guys that coach Lorenzo Romar uses in the rotation, and he isn't scared to play any of them for more than 20 minutes. Only one of those nine is a true freshmen, too. Let the track meet begin.

Why They Might Lose:

• Defense. The Huskies have a knack for making decent guards look a lot like Kobe Bryant. They need to stay in front of the ball if they want to be successful.

• Low post offense. Washington's two primary big men, Matthew Bryan-Amaning and Aziz N'Diaye are good for probably four or five point blank misses a game. Seriously.

• Inconsistency. Just like that Tennessee team, you don't always know which UW team will show up.

The Huskies have insane talent, but they just can't come out flat and be forced to play from behind like they so often do. If they have their heads in it, and my guess is that Romar makes sure that happens, then the Huskies can make a deep run.

Why They Might Surprise:

• Alec Burks. We've all seen what superstars can do in this tournament, and Burks is an absolute stud. He can go off at any given time, and when teams try to bottle him up, Cory Higgins will pick up the slack, like he did against Kansas State.

• Offense. They won't have trouble scoring, whether it's in transition or half court offense. Not many teams will beat them in a shootout. They shoot threes, they get the line, they can score in a variety of ways.

• Pressure defense. They play really tight on the ball and can force a lot of turnovers. They are pesky, to say the least.

Why They Might Lose:

• Rebounding. Giving up second chances can be one of the most frustrating things for a team to deal with, and the Buffaloes are only a mediocre rebounding team.

• Playing down to opponents. They are 2-3 against teams with an RPI of 51-100. That's most likely who they'll be playing the first round, so they better be careful.

The Buffaloes are going into the tournament winning six of their last nine games. They have wins against Missouri, Kansas State twice, and Texas, yet they are projected to be in a play-in game? This team screams underrated to me. Don't sleep on this sleeping giant