2011 Holiday Bowl: 5 Reasons the California Golden Bears Will Win

On December 28, the Pac-12's California Golden Bears will face the Big 12's Texas Longhorns in the Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl.

On paper, these two teams seem very similar. Both boast records of 7-5. Both trounced the lower competition in their conferences. The Bears averaged 29.8 points while limiting their opponents to 24.4 points this season. The Longhorns averaged 28.7 for and 23.3 against.

The Longhorns are currently favored to win the Holiday Bowl by a spread of 3.5. In truth, five factors will rally the Golden Bears past Texas.

Though they have the same win-loss ratio, by season's end, the California Golden Bears and the Texas Longhorns are teams headed in opposite directions.

The Bears are entering the Holiday Bowl as winners of three of their last four games.

Their final game against the Arizona State Sun Devils displayed their developing offensive capabilities, and their one loss in this span came against a top 10 Stanford Cardinal teamand they only lost that by three points.

The Longhorns, on the other hand, are losers of three of their last four games, including a blowout loss in the final game of the season to Robert Griffin III's Baylor Bears.

Clearly, Cal is peaking at the right moment, and they'll take that confidence with them to the Holiday Bowl. 

When the Bears meet the Longhorns, they will be able to take advantage of holes in the otherwise stout Texas defense because they move the ball well through the air and on the ground.

At the start of the season, Cal relied mainly on the throwing game to gain points. But in the past month, the Bears have developed a solid running game featuring junior running back Isi Sofele, who racked up 1,270 yards and nine touchdowns this season. Consequently, the Bears are 38th in the nation in passing and 48th in the nation in rushing. 

The Longhorns have been struggling to overcome inconsistent quarterback play, and therefore, are ranked 85th in nation in passing. Most of their touchdowns come from rushing, where they rank 19th.

However, their rushing numbers are suspect. More than eight hundred of the rushing yards they achieved this season came in two games against Kansas (the worst defense in the nation) and Texas Tech (ranked 114th against the run).

As both teams have strong defenses, the winner will be the one who can take every offensive advantage. The Bears are better equipped in this regard.

Throughout the season, the Texas Longhorns have been forced to play their fourth and fifth options at key positions.

Their star running backs Malcolm Brown and Joe Bergeron are out, and their status is uncertain for the Holiday Bowl. At best, they'll be playing through injuries. Their tailback, Fozzy Whittaker, is out for the year.  

Their defense is banged up. In the final game of the season, senior safety and leader of the Longhorn defense Blake Gideon failed repeatedly at covering RG3's receivers and struggled to stick a tackle.

To cap it off, coach Mack Brown has been playing tag with his two quarterbacks, Case McCoy and David Ash. Both are young and inconsistent.

On the other side, Cal's early season was spent breaking in transfer quarterback Zach Maynard to the point where, at least statistically, Maynard has become as good as Stanford's Andrew Luck.

At the same time, the Bears running game will clearly feature Isi Sofele, and the catching game will have Maynard's half brother and star wide receiver Keenan Allen to make plays.

Injuries and go-to players, who know their roles and the plays that work, will prove a difference maker for the Bears in the Holiday Bowl.  

The Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl will be played at Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego, Calif. Needless to say, no matter how well Texas fans travel, San Diego is a lot closer to Berkeley than to Austin.

The Bears will have the larger fanbase at this game, effectively giving them home field. This will be important because neither team has played well on the road this season. 

In 2004, the California Golden Bears, led by coach Jeff Tedford and quarterback Aaron Rodgers, entered their final game of the season ranked fourth in the BCS. As the Pac-10 runner-up with conference champion USC going to the national title game, Cal could expect an at-large bid for a trip to the Rose Bowl.

Then Texas Longhorn coach Mack Brown did some impressive politicking to earn the Rose Bowl bid over California, despite them winning their final game.

The Bears, who expected to end their 46-year-old Rose Bowl drought, would go to the Holiday Bowl instead.

And now the Bears are back in the Holiday Bowl, facing off with the team that thwarted their ambitions seven years ago.

Now, I've read fans online who say that this current Cal team has no more incentive to win against the Longhorns than against, say, the Sooners. They say this team is too young to care.

Living in the Bay Area, I can say with authority that this is not the case. Alumni remember. It was less than 10 years ago, so most fans remember. And Jeff Tedford is still coaching the Bears, while Mack Brown is still in charge of the Longhorns.

You can bet the current crop of Cal players will want to win this bowl game all the more to right past wrongs. 

This game is easily more interesting than two of the BCS Bowls, as each team is capable of exploding for points on any given play, and each possesses strong defenses not used to buckling.

But right now, too many things are going the Bears' way, and too few things are going the Longhorns' way.

Both teams have excellent kickers in Giorgio Tavecchio and Justin Tucker (each with 92 points for the season), but the other key scoring positions all favor Cal, which boasts a soundly developed running and air game.

The Golden Bears have the momentum, the home field and the incentive to give an extra push. The Longhorns have pride, but that will not be enough with the injuries sustained this season. 

I predict Cal to get off to a quick start, and then the defenses will kick in.

Final Score: California 34, Texas 24.