Fiesta Bowl 2011: Can UConn Huskies Avoid A Blowout Against Oklahoma?
On paper, the 2011 Fiesta Bowl looks like a disaster waiting to happen.
On one side, the Connecticut Huskies are making their inaugural trip to the BCS by virtue of their Big East Conference Championship. They are 8-4 entering this game and they are the only unranked team in the BCS this year, though they did win five straight games to end the regular season.
On the other side, the Oklahoma Sooners are the bad boys of the Big XII Conference. They won 11 games this year and have won four games in a row to get their chance to compete in the Fiesta Bowl. The Sooners are one of the best teams in the country every single year and Bob Stoops is one of the best coaches in the country.
This game should be over before it begins. Oklahoma should run all over Connecticut in this game. Oklahoma is head-and-shoulders better then Connecticut.
The beauty of sports, though, is that no matter what things look like on paper, once the game starts, anything can happen.
So does Connecticut have a chance against Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl?
Here are five reasons that they do and five reasons that they don't, followed by a prediction for the 2011 Fiesta Bowl.
No. 1 Reason For: Running Back Jordan Todman
Connecticut’s best chance to win the Fiesta Bowl is to establish the running game with Jordan Todman. The Huskies' offense is pretty inept with the exception of their star running back.
For the season, Todman ran for 1,574 yards and 14 touchdowns. Oklahoma has been susceptible to the run at various points throughout the year.
If Todman can get going in this game and UConn can control the clock, they can stay with the Sooners.
No. 1 Reason Against: Talent Discrepancy
Oklahoma has some of the best pure talent in the country. Every single year they are at, or near, the top of the recruiting rankings. They are so talented and so fast on both sides of the ball.
Connecticut has been playing in the FBS since 2002. They have done a really good job of building a successful program in such a short period of time.
With that said, they don’t have the talent to match up with Oklahoma.
The Huskies will have to get by on guts and heart in order to have a chance in this game.
No. 2 Reason For: Oklahoma’s History In These Games
In the past, Oklahoma has had a tendency to play down to their opponents in games like this. It started a few years back against Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl. For whatever reason, Oklahoma doesn’t seem to get going in these games right away and they let their opponents get a big lead early.
If Oklahoma comes out flat in this game, and if Connecticut can capitalize on the opportunity, they can shock the Sooners and make it very difficult for the Sooners to win the game.
Pay attention to the opening minutes of the game to see how Oklahoma looks from the onset.
No. 2 Reason Against: Coaching
This isn’t a knock on Randy Edsall, who has done really great things with Connecticut in his time with the program, but Bob Stoops is the better coach in this game.
He has a quiet, fiery confidence to him and his team really seemed to feed off of that this season. Stoops is one of the best game coaches in the country, and that gives the Sooners a decided advantage in this game.
No. 3 Reason For: Stingy Huskies Defense
Connecticut has had a very good year defensively, particularly their scoring defense. They finished 22nd in the country in points allowed per game with 19.8. Some of that will be skewed because some of the teams that they played aren’t very good on offense.
However, don’t underestimate this defense. They might give up a lot of yards to Oklahoma, but if they can hold them out of the end zone, they can keep this game close for a long time.
No. 3 Reason Against: Oklahoma Quarterback Landry Jones
Perhaps the best thing that could have happened to Oklahoma in 2010 was Sam Bradford getting injured in 2009. That injury allowed Landry Jones to get a significant amount of playing time as a freshman and be well-prepared coming into his sophomore year.
Jones threw for 4,289 yards and 35 touchdowns this season. He has had a wonderful season thus far for Oklahoma and will be difficult for UConn to contain.
No. 4 Reason For: Turnovers
Connecticut doesn’t do a lot of things well, but one thing that they do as well as any team in the country is create turnovers. They finished seventh in the country in interceptions with 17 on the season.
If they can get pressure on Landry Jones, they can force him into making mistakes, and this defense will be able to pounce on those. They will need to win the turnover battle in this game to have a chance.
Be on the lookout for how much penetration the Huskies get against Oklahoma’s offensive line.
No. 4 Reason Against: Oklahoma’s Powerful Offense
Landry Jones is just the beginning of this Oklahoma offense. They have big-play weapons at every skill position on the field.
Running back DeMarco Murray has had a solid year with 1,121 yards rushing and 14 touchdowns. He has explosive speed and can break loose at any point in the game.
Wide receiver Ryan Broyles had a fantastic year with 118 catches for 1,452 yards and 13 touchdowns.
Oklahoma has one of the most explosive offenses in the country. They can score against any defense at any time. Connecticut can’t get into a shootout with the Sooners if they want to win.
No. 5 Reason For: Special Teams
In any close game, special teams always make the difference.
If Connecticut can keep the game close, they will have a little bit of an advantage over Oklahoma in the special teams area. Their kickers are 18-for-20 from 40 yards or less and 2-for-2 from 50-plus yards.
Plus, they are sixth in the country in average return yards on a kickoff with 26.5 yards per return. They will need to use that to their advantage to win the field position battle in this game.
No. 5 Reason Against: Lack Of Competition
The Big East is a joke right now. Everyone knows that the conference has fallen on very hard times in the last five years or so. They didn’t beat one ranked team all season long—that is, a team that was ranked when UConn played them.
Their best win this season was either over South Florida or West Virginia, two teams that went a combined 17-9.
Connecticut has not played any team close to as good as Oklahoma this year. They need to be ready for the Sooners' speed and quickness if they want to keep this game close.
The Huskies have a lot of work to do if they hope to win this game.
Final Prediction
After all of this, does Connecticut have a chance, at the very least, to keep the game against Oklahoma close?
It’s very doubtful.
Connecticut would have to have so many things go right for them and have so many things go wrong for Oklahoma in order to keep the game close.
It’s definitely not an impossible task, but it doesn’t look good on paper.
But that’s why they play the game.
Final Score: Oklahoma 41, Connecticut 17