Ranking SP Yoshinobu Yamamoto's Top 10 Landing Spots Ahead of MLB Free Agency

The starting pitching aisle of Major League Baseball's free-agent market is crowded, with Blake Snell, Aaron Nola and Jordan Montgomery taking up much of the room.

And then there's the right-hander who looms largest of all: Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

He doesn't have any major league starts under his belt, but what he does have is an electric arsenal of pitches and a veritable laundry list of accomplishments from pitching in Japan's Nippon Professional Baseball and for the national team in the World Baseball Classic.

Oh, and he's only 25 years old.

What a player like this could be worth and which teams are fits require thorough discussion. So, let's take our time in discussing Yamamoto's value and identifying his 10 best potential suitors.

Yamamoto is coming to MLB with nothing left to prove in Japan.

He racked up a 1.72 ERA in seven seasons with the Orix Buffaloes, culminating with a 2023 campaign that saw him post a 1.21 ERA and 169 strikeouts against 28 walks in 164 innings. He pitched his second career no-hitter in September and concluded his campaign with a 138-pitch, 14-strikeout complete game in the Japan Series.

To boot, Yamamoto's 2023 journey started with his participation in Samurai Japan's victorious run in the World Baseball Classic. He logged 7.1 innings across two appearances, striking out 12 while allowing only four hits and two walks.

As noted by Joel Sherman of the New York Post, it's of some concern that Yamamoto is undersized for a pitcher at 5'10", 176 pounds. In recent years, only Marcus Stroman and Mike Leake have been durable pitchers despite that size profile.

The scouting reports on Yamamoto are nonetheless glowing, as well they should be given he has excellent control of a mid-to-high 90s fastball, a devastating splitter and a curveball and cutter that are above average.

Yamamoto, who was posted by Orix on Nov. 5, should easily clear Masahiro Tanaka's seven-year, $155 million contract from 2014 as the record payout for an international player. For example, B/R's Kerry Miller projected a seven-year, $210 million deal in October.

In addition to the money, location could also sway Yamamoto's decision. As Will Sammon of The Athletic reported in October, the righty "covets the opportunity to play in a large market."

All this is enough to speculate on and rank Yamamoto's 10 best landing spots based on how much sense they make for him, but let's first touch on some honorable mentions.

Note: All WAR courtesy of Baseball Reference, with rotation projections courtesy of RosterResource at FanGraphs.

Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles are supposedly becoming a more attractive destination for free agents, but that doesn't make one any less skeptical that they'll be able to land Yamamoto. Big spending isn't normally their thing, and Baltimore is among MLB's smaller markets anyway.

Cincinnati Reds

The Reds have an even stronger need for starting pitching after their starters put up a 5.43 ERA this season, but they're even less likely to score Yamamoto than the Orioles. Cincinnati is a smaller market than Baltimore, and the Reds have yet to spend so much as $70 million on a single free agent.

Houston Astros

The Astros could use another starter, and the notion of them getting their hands on Yamamoto is nothing if not intriguing. But with their payroll already projected to be higher in 2024 than it was in 2023, it's hard to see how the money would work.

San Diego Padres

The Friars are always worth mentioning whenever a star player is available, but it's hard to see them making a play for Yamamoto under the circumstances. They want to cut their payroll to about $200 million, which is where it's projected to be in 2024.

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 10.0 (T-11th)

2024 Projected Rotation: RHP Spencer Strider, LHP Max Fried, RHP Charlie Morton, RHP Bryce Elder, RHP Michael Soroka

Atlanta's starting pitching collapsed in the second half of 2023, running up a 5.10 ERA even as the team finished with 104 wins. Only Strider was reliable when October arrived.

According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, Atlanta is now willing to pony up for "the right starting pitcher in free agency." And to this end, Yamamoto is the best it can do.

He and Strider, who led the majors with 281 strikeouts this season, would be an electric 1-2 punch. And with Fried, Morton and Elder also in the fold, Atlanta would have the depth to give Yamamoto the occasional blow as he adjusts to MLB's grueling schedule and travel.

Ah, but one question is whether the Japanese star is even remotely in the team's price range. It's never done so much as a $100 million deal in free agency, so it would be quite the leap for it to suddenly do a $200 million deal.

There's also the market question. Atlanta is far from a small market, but it's not, say, New York, Los Angeles or Chicago.

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 4.1 (28th)

2024 Projected Rotation: RHP Miles Mikolas, LHP Steven Matz, LHP Zack Thompson, RHP Dakota Hudson, LHP Matthew Liberatore

Apart from a month of July in which they had a 3.79 ERA, the times were all bad for Cardinals starters as they racked up a 5.08 ERA for the season.

What's more, only Colorado Rockies starters struck batters out less frequently. And that was something of a miracle, as it was Cardinals starters who ranked at the very bottom of MLB with a meager 8.2 swinging-strike percentage.

Somebody like Yamamoto is just what they need. And they're definitely buying, as president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said the team is in the market for "at least two starters."

In outfielder Lars Nootbaar, St. Louis might also have a secret weapon in the Yamamoto sweepstakes. They're friends who played together for Samurai Japan in the World Baseball Classic, and Nootbaar says their moms talk daily.

But while Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch says the Cardinals are interested in Yamamoto, even a $200 million deal would be $70 million higher than any they've ever done before. And that's assuming he could forgive St. Louis for being a mid-sized market.

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 11.9 (7th)

2024 Projected Rotation: RHP Luis Castillo, RHP Logan Gilbert, RHP George Kirby, RHP Bryce Miller, LHP Marco Gonzales

The Mariners don't need starting pitching, but does that necessarily preclude them from going after Yamamoto?

MLB.com's Jon Morosi doesn't think so, or he otherwise wouldn't have tabbed them as a potential destination for Yamamoto. In his mind, there could be a scenario in which they sign him and subsequently trade one of their incumbent starters for a bat.

Market size could be an issue here, but it may help Seattle's cause that the organization has a heck of a legacy with Japanese stars. There's obviously Ichiro Suzuki, but also Hisashi Iwakuma, Shigetoshi Hasegawa and Kazuhiro Sasaki.

It's also not totally unlike the Mariners to spend big bucks on a single player. They broke the bank with Robinson Cano's $240 million deal in 2013 and more recently extended Julio Rodríguez with a contract that could max out at $470 million.

For now, though, this seems like one for the "Fun Ideas" folder rather than the "Realistic Possibilities" file. And if the Mariners have money for Yamamoto, why not spend it on a hitter instead of signing a pitcher just so they can then trade a pitcher for a hitter?

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 8.0 (20th)

2024 Projected Rotation: LHP Justin Steele, RHP Jameson Taillon, RHP Kyle Hendricks, LHP Jordan Wicks, RHP Javier Assad

The Cubs came out of 2023 with a good-looking rotation lined up for 2024, but then a hole opened up when Marcus Stroman opted out of his contract.

Could they fill it with Yamamoto? Well, it doesn't seem out of the question.

The Cubs are known to have scouted Yamamoto, and the fit at least seems right from market and financial perspectives. Chicago is MLB's third-biggest market. And while the Cubs have never done a $200 million deal, they came close with their pacts with Jason Heyward ($184 million) in 2015 and Dansby Swanson ($177 million) last winter.

Signing Yamamoto would involve them going even more all-in on run prevention, but that's not the worst idea. As great as Steele was in 2023, Yamamoto would be the proper No. 2 that he didn't have behind him during the club's ill-fated stretch run.

Still, what the Cubs really need is more offense. Rather than on a nice-to-have like Yamamoto, their focus, arguably, belongs on must-haves such as Shohei Ohtani or Cody Bellinger from the open market and Juan Soto from the trade market.

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 9.8 (15th)

2024 Projected Rotation: RHP Gerrit Cole, LHP Carlos Rodón, RHP Michael King, RHP Clarke Schmidt, LHP Nestor Cortes

The Yankees need offense just as much as the Cubs, but does that mean they should be ruled out of upgrading their starting rotation?

Some don't think so, including Buster Olney and Jeff Passan of ESPN. Both tabbed the Yankees as the best fit for Yamamoto, with Olney noting that general manager Brian Cashman tends to go big on pitching when times are tough.

That's where Cashman and the Yankees are now after an 82-80 season. And even if the offense was the club's No. 1 problem, that nobody emerged as a consistent No. 2 starter behind Gerrit Cole was another big one. Yamamoto has the goods to be that guy.

His youth is another thing that should appeal to New York. With Cole and Carlos Rodón both over the age-30 threshold and no especially great arms down on the farm, the team needs to be thinking about who its ace will be several years down the line.

Yet with the Yankees already slated to exceed the $237 million luxury tax in 2024, there's the question of whether they can sign Yamamoto and add the offense they so sorely need. If not, frankly, they'd do well to prioritize the bats.

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 13.6 (4th)

2024 Projected Rotation: RHP Zack Wheeler, LHP Ranger Suárez, RHP Taijuan Walker, LHP Cristopher Sánchez, LHP Josh Fleming

Phillies owner John Middleton said last month that the club would make a "concerted effort" to re-sign Nola, but there are rumblings that the team is prepared to move on.

Snell is the alternative ace most commonly associated with the Phillies, with Bob Nightengale of USA Today connecting the two in October and Rosenthal picking up the torch on Monday. The latter mused that the Phillies might prefer Snell's swing-and-miss stuff.

Indeed, Phillies starters finished 14th in strikeouts per nine innings this season. Snell would help fix that, but the caveats would include his frequent walks and generally short leash.

Could the Phillies instead opt for Yamamoto, who also offers swing-and-miss stuff but with much better command? They notably play in a big market and are known to have scouted him. And with a $32 million gap between the club's 2023 payroll and its 2024 projected payroll, they would seem to have financial space for Yamamoto.

Still, this is strictly a speculative fit for now. It may become realistic only if the Phillies whiff on both Nola and Snell, and that's assuming Yamamoto was still available in that scenario.

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 10.0 (T-11th)

2024 Projected Rotation: RHP Logan Webb, RHP Anthony DeSclafani, RHP Ross Stripling, LHP Kyle Harrison, RHP Keaton Winn

You only have to go back to early October to find a time when Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi was downplaying a potential search for starting pitching.

"I don't imagine us looking to add starting pitching depth," Zaidi said on Oct. 3, later adding: "I just think we have a good amount of that depth."

Yet this was before Alex Cobb underwent hip surgery, which promises to keep him sidelined for the start of the 2024 season. Once that happened, a starter, arguably, ceased being a nice-to-have and became a must-have.

It would be easy to link the Giants to Yamamoto just on these grounds, though it helps that they've scouted him and Zaidi is on record saying that the righty is "one of the top starting pitchers in the world." They otherwise have a $50 million payroll gap to fill, and it may not be long before they're the only MLB team in the Bay Area.

However, Ohtani is reportedly the prize the Giants really want. And rightfully so, as their offense outscored only that of the Miami Marlins among National League clubs this season.

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 10.4 (10th)

2024 Projected Rotation: LHP Chris Sale, RHP Nick Pivetta, RHP Brayan Bello, RHP Kutter Crawford, RHP Tanner Houck

Though Red Sox starters cracked the top 10 of MLB in rWAR, their 22nd-ranked 4.68 ERA is a more telling reflection of what things were like in 2023.

Newly minted chief baseball officer Craig Breslow knows what he needs to do. He wouldn't provide any specifics in terms of goals, but he did say at the GM Meetings last week that "starting pitching is certainly a priority for us."

There wouldn't seem to be much doubt that the Red Sox can afford Yamamoto. Their 2024 payroll is projected at $177 million, well below the $199 million they spent this year and even further below the club's high-water mark of $236.2 million from 2019.

It also happens the Red Sox already have a former Orix star in left fielder Masataka Yoshida, who is "close" with his teammate of six years in Japan. If he got involved in a recruiting pitch, he could perhaps sell Yamamoto on becoming part of Boston's exciting youth movement.

As for reasons to be down on this fit, maybe the only one is that the Red Sox are probably more than one pitcher away from contending and might be better off spreading their resources around.

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 6.9 (23rd)

2024 Projected Rotation: RHP Walker Buehler, RHP Bobby Miller, RHP Ryan Pepiot, LHP Ryan Yarbrough, RHP Emmet Sheehan

The Dodgers clearly need starting pitchers after their rotation went to crud in 2023, but not just any starting pitchers.

Though he acknowledged that finding them is easier said than done, Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman specifically wants starters who can pitch deep into games. He must not have liked getting only 4.9 innings on average from his starters.

In addition to everything else he can provide, this is another way in which Yamamoto stands out. Albeit with the disclaimer that he only pitched once a week, he was typically good for seven innings when he took the ball for Orix.

This, of course, is all the more reason for the Dodgers to remain high on Yamamoto. And even if he's ostensibly their No. 2 target behind Shohei Ohtani, it's within the realm of possibility that they could sign both of them.

After all, there's nearly a $100 million gap between what the Dodgers spent in 2023 and what they project to spend in 2024. Even if they signed Ohtani for $50 million per year and Yamamoto for $30 million per year, there would still be room for more.

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 12.0 (6th)

2024 Projected Rotation: RHP Kodai Senga, LHP José Quintana, RHP Tylor Megill, LHP Joey Lucchesi, RHP José Butto

Let's just say it's hard to argue with DraftKings tabbing the Mets as the betting favorite to sign Yamamoto.

There's nothing if not an overwhelming amount of smoke here, as the Mets have been connected to the Japanese star throughout 2023 and, according to Nightengale, have their eyes firmly on him as they're convinced they have "no realistic chance" to land Ohtani.

And they have just the guy to help recruit Yamamoto. That's fellow Japan-born ace and 2023 National League Rookie of the Year finalist Kodai Senga, who knows Yamamoto well and thinks he would be "a great fit" on the Mets.

What could hurt the Mets' cause is that Billy Eppler is no longer with them after resigning as their GM in October. With him went a strong track record with Japanese hurlers, as he was involved in signing Tanaka and was the point man on the Ohtani and Senga signings.

Even still, Yamamoto isn't going to find a bigger stage than New York, and Steve Cohen can ensure that he doesn't find a better offer either. He's by far the richest owner in baseball, and it wasn't long ago that he saved a ton of money in the team's trade deadline sell-off.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.