Ranking Aaron Nola's Top 10 Landing Spots Ahead of MLB Free Agency

One of the most reliable starting pitchers in Major League Baseball is about to be available to the highest bidder.

This sentiment also applies to other pending free agents such as Blake Snell, Sonny Gray and Jordan Montgomery, but in this case we're talking about Aaron Nola.

Though Nola just finished his ninth season with the Philadelphia Phillies, he's only 30 years old and he's still among the league's most prolific workhorses. The right-hander has made at least 32 starts in each of the past five full seasons, a span in which he ranks second in innings and fifth in wins above replacement.

So, let's discuss Nola's potential value on the open market and then get to speculating on and ranking 10 teams that are the best fits for him.

If there's any quibble about the notion that Nola is "reliable," it's that his run prevention isn't always as impressive as his workload.

He's generally been an above average pitcher to the tune of a 116 ERA+ over the past six seasons, but he's been below average in two of the past three. He had a 90 ERA+ in 2021 and a 95 ERA+ this past season.

The 2023 campaign also brought troubling trends with Nola's strikeout rate, which dropped to its lowest point since 2016, and his home run rate, which rose to its highest point ever.

None of this is going to help Nola's earning power. Nor will the qualifying offer, which will tie him to draft pick compensation after he invariably gets one and rejects it.

Despite all this, innings eaters of Nola's caliber are rare indeed, and it won't be impossible for interested parties to downplay his results from 2021 and 2023. There's plenty to like under the hood, including consistent fastball velocity and elite command. He's also an accomplished playoff performer with a 3.70 ERA in nine career outings.

Since Nola will be going into his age-31 season in 2024, the five-year, $110 million deal that Kevin Gausman signed with the Toronto Blue Jays in 2021 is a potential model. He should get at least that much, if not more after last year's market sent rates for stars soaring.

With all this in mind, let's touch on some honorable mentions and then count down Nola's top 10 potential suitors.

Note: All WAR is courtesy of Baseball Reference.

Cincinnati Reds

The 5.43 ERA that the Reds got from their starters in 2023 ranked 28th in MLB, but the next nine-figure deal they do in free agency will be their first. It'll happen eventually, but probably not at a time when a wealth of young hitters should open doors on the trade market.

Houston Astros

The decline of the Astros' starting pitching is among the reasons their contention window suddenly seems to be closing. However, they don't typically go big in free agency and they can hope for better things from in-house options like Cristian Javier and Hunter Brown.

New York Yankees

The Yankees lacked a proper co-ace for Gerrit Cole in 2023, but that'll change in 2024 if Carlos Rodón stays healthy and lives up to his $162 million contract. Besides, what this team really needs is more capable hitters around Aaron Judge.

Toronto Blue Jays

The Jays stand to lose Hyun Jin Ryu to free agency, and they need to think twice about trusting Alek Manoah after his star power deteriorated this year. And yet, there is something to be said about them needing to turn their attention back to their offense.

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 9.9 (13th)

Projected 2024 Rotation: RHP Kyle Bradish, RHP Grayson Rodriguez, LHP John Means, RHP Dean Kremer, LHP Cole Irvin

The thinking for most of 2023 was that starting pitching was a weakness for the Orioles, but that had rightfully changed by the end of the year.

Orioles starters were not only solid, but indeed quite good in pitching to a fifth-ranked 3.74 ERA in the second half. Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez each posted ERAs in the 2.00s, as did John Means after he returned from Tommy John surgery on Sep. 12.

But with Kyle Gibson slated for the open market, Baltimore stands to lose a veteran who supplied them with 192 innings in 2023. Going from him to Nola would be an upgrade and, despite the club's recent stinginess, there actually is a nine-figure deal in Baltimore's free-agent history.

That was for Chris Davis, though, and the less said about how that worked out, the better. Besides which, the Orioles have so much young hitting talent that it arguably makes more sense for them to trade for an ace rather than sign one.

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 10.0 (12th)

2024 Projected Rotation: RHP Spencer Strider, LHP Max Fried, RHP Charlie Morton, RHP Bryce Elder, RHP AJ Smith-Shawver

The rivalry between Atlanta and the Phillies is already spicy, but what better way to make it spicier than a defection on Nola's part?

For Atlanta, enriching themselves while denying the enemy would be a mere bonus if they were to sign Nola. A more basic reality is that their starting rotation needs fortification after how it ended 2023, posting a 5.10 ERA in the second half of the year.

The real question is this: Can Atlanta afford Nola?

It's perhaps unlikely, given that the organization has never gone above even $76 million for a free agent and that its long-term books are already heavy with six contracts that run through at least 2028. But if the club doesn't simply go for broke, they could clear $20 million for 2024 by choosing to decline their option on Morton, who turns 40 on Nov. 12.

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 8.0 (20th)

2024 Projected Rotation: LHP Justin Steele, RHP Marcus Stroman, RHP Jameson Taillon, LHP Jordan Wicks, RHP Javier Assad

For a team that effectively hung its contention hopes for 2023 on pitching and defense, starting pitching ended up being a mild disappointment for the Cubs.

Steele was awesome in logging a 3.06 ERA over 173.1 innings, but Cubs starters ultimately landed in the middle of MLB (14th, to be exact) with a 4.26 ERA.

A healthy year from Stroman, who's reportedly opting in for 2024, could only help next season. But that's perhaps not a given after how this season ended for him, and signing Nola to slot between Stroman and Steele wouldn't be a bad idea even if it were.

Ah, but should another starter be the Cubs' No. 1 priority? Probably not. Or even their No. 2 priority, really. The first should be pulling off the trade for Pete Alonso they reportedly covet, and the second should be extending him beyond his walk year in 2024.

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 12.0 (6th)

2024 Projected Rotation: RHP Kodai Senga, LHP José Quintana, LHP David Peterson, RHP Tylor Megill, LHP Joey Lucchesi

A funny thing happened after the Mets jettisoned Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer at the trade deadline: Their starting pitching actually got better.

Whereas Mets starters had a 4.46 ERA prior to Aug. 1, they had a 3.73 ERA afterward. This span saw Senga continue his ascension as a major league ace, with Quintana, Peterson and Megill also pitching well.

But while all four of them will be back in 2024, Carlos Carrasco is a free agent and neither Quintana nor anyone else in the club's projected rotation looks like a No. 2 to line up behind Senga. That's where Nola could come in, and there's little doubt that the Mets can afford him.

It'll be a surprise if he ever becomes a top priority, though. The Mets figure to have bigger targets this winter, whether the biggest is Shohei Ohtani or his Japan countryman, Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 13.6 (4th)

2024 Projected Rotation: RHP Zack Wheeler, LHP Ranger Suárez, RHP Taijuan Walker, LHP Cristopher Sánchez, RHP Nick Nelson

The Phillies are worth including as a suitor for Nola because, well, don't they have to be?

They're the team that drafted him with the No. 7 overall pick in 2014 and called him up for his major league debut barely a year later. They signed him to an extension four years later, which bought out three years of club control and two free-agent seasons.

Yet the time for another extension has come and gone, with Bob Nightengale of USA Today having reported that the two sides "never came close" to an agreement. And despite Phillies owner John Middleton's insistence that the organization will "try really hard" to bring Nola back, it's not hard to imagine him leaving.

Even without Nola, that's a solid rotation the Phillies have lined up for 2024. And set to join it in the near future will be Andrew Painter (likely in 2025 after Tommy John surgery) and Mick Abel (likely in 2024), two righties who rank as the No. 12 and No. 23 prospects in MLB.

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 12.3 (5th)

2024 Projected Rotation: RHP Joe Musgrove, RHP Yu Darvish, RHP Matt Waldron, RHP Pedro Avila, LHP Jay Groome

Starting pitching was an obvious strength for the Padres in 2023, as their starters ranked first in MLB with a 3.69 ERA in addition to fifth in wins above replacement.

Yet this effort was mainly driven by Snell, who's likewise ticketed for free agency after a Cy Young-worthy campaign highlighted by an MLB-best 2.25 ERA. And for their parts, Musgrove and Darvish were shut down in September with shoulder and elbow injuries, respectively.

Starting pitching therefore must be a priority for the Padres this winter, and it doesn't seem out of the question that Nola will be a cheaper alternative to Snell. Even if he does cost more, the Padres could perhaps deem him worth it on account of his consistency.

There is, however, the question of whether the Padres have the budget for either hurler. They reportedly want to reduce their payroll to somewhere around $200 million, and the initial projection for 2024 already has them slated to pay out $190 million.

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 6.9 (23rd)

2024 Projected Rotation: RHP Walker Buehler, RHP Bobby Miller, RHP Ryan Pepiot, LHP Ryan Yarbrough, RHP Emmett Sheehan

After sustaining as a strength for many years, this season saw starting pitching become something more like a liability for the Dodgers.

The 4.57 ERA that their starters posted in 2023 was the franchise's highest since the starters for the 1929 Brooklyn Dodgers finished at 4.76. Further, an average outing for a Dodgers starter lasted just 4.9 innings.

The Dodgers don't know if Clayton Kershaw will be back, and exercising Lance Lynn's option for 2024 would cost them $18 million. They thus might need to land several starters this winter, though Nola would certainly be a good one to start with.

By all accounts, though, the Dodgers' offseason is destined to revolve around Shohei Ohtani. They can probably afford to sign him and Nola, granted, but something like, say, a trade for Corbin Burnes would be a more cost-effective subsequent move if they do land Ohtani.

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 10.0 (T-11th)

2024 Projected Rotation: RHP Logan Webb, RHP Alex Cobb, LHP Sean Manaea, RHP Ross Stripling, LHP Kyle Harrison

The Giants' starting rotation was technically solid in 2023, yet the finer points of the big picture aren't pretty.

The Giants had to use so many openers that they ended up ranking dead-last at 4.5 innings per start. And while it may not preclude the Giants from picking up his $10 million option, Cobb is slated to miss the start of 2024 after having left hip surgery.

To add Nola, then, would be huge for the Giants. And provided the team made him a fair offer, he'd have another incentive to accept it: Swapping Citizens Bank Park for Oracle Park would mean swapping a home run haven for a home run desert.

The tricky part is that Nola is a mere star. It's superstars who've interested the Giants in the past, and that interest may only be getting stronger after swinging and missing on Giancarlo Stanton, Bryce Harper, Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa.

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 10.4 (10th)

2024 Projected Rotation: LHP Chris Sale, RHP Nick Pivetta, RHP Brayan Bello, RHP Kutter Crawford, RHP Tanner Houck

WAR is a generally useful stat, but...hoo boy, is it misleading when it comes to the strength of the Red Sox's starting pitching in 2023.

Their starters ranked 22nd with a 4.68 ERA and averaged even fewer innings (4.8, to be exact) than Dodgers starters. And save for maybe Bello, Sale's decline as an ace pretty much renders Boston's rotation without a No. 1 starter.

If anything, it's hard to think of reasons why the Red Sox shouldn't pursue Nola. They should covet his reliability as much as any team, and he need not fear Fenway Park. Though it is a good run-scoring environment, it's less friendly to the long ball than the one Nola is used to.

Perhaps the only catch is that it might make more sense for the Red Sox to pursue an impact trade for a starter. They aren't as well off as the Reds or Orioles, but they do have something of a surplus of talented young hitters to barter with.

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 4.1 (28th)

2024 Projected Rotation: RHP Miles Mikolas, LHP Steven Matz, LHP Zack Thompson, RHP Dakota Hudson, LHP Matthew Liberatore

Speculation has been the name of the game to this point, but no longer. According to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, the Cardinals indeed see Nola as a good fit.

That their starting rotation could use his help is not in dispute. It was every kind of bad in 2023, pitching to a 5.08 ERA and ranking second-to-last in strikeout rate ahead of only the Colorado Rockies.

It's not totally like the Cardinals to make big splashes in free agency, but they will do it and they even went as high as $120 million for Matt Holliday back in 2010. And with only Nolan Arenado and Willson Contreras on their books beyond 2025, it's a good time to spend.

Otherwise, that the Cardinals are coming off a 91-loss season shouldn't scare Nola away. Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt are still a functional star duo, and Jordan Walker is but one of several young building blocks in place for the future.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.