Fantasy Football 2023: Advice on Jonathan Taylor, Top Players Returning from Injury

With the 2023 NFL preseason officially coming to an end on Sunday, it's time to look ahead to the regular season and some much-anticipated fantasy football.

The biggest key to navigating a successful fantasy football draft is knowing where to find value and how to mitigate risks. Players coming off of injury can provide tremendous value if their draft stock has taken a hit. However, they can also be massive risks.

Just because a former league-winner like Jonathan Taylor or Cooper Kupp is expected to be healthy in 2023 doesn't mean that they'll stay healthy or perform up to their pre-injury standards.

Three-time Pro Bowler Odell Beckham Jr. was never quite the same after suffering ankle and leg injuries in 2017.

Here, you'll find some of the biggest names coming off of 2022 injuries at each key position, the latest average draft position (ADP) info from FantasyPros and a little advice on how to value them on draft day.

All analysis is based on point-per-reception (PPR) scoring.

Jonathan Taylor of the Indianapolis Colts is the biggest name at the running back position returning from injury. The 2021 reigning rushing champ battled an ankle injury for part of last season before ultimately being shelved after Week 15.

The injury is one piece of the puzzle to consider with Taylor. The Colts are also fielding trade offers for the 24-year-old, and the risk of re-injury is significant. Taylor has seen a massive workload dating back to college—926 carries in three seasons at Wisconsin and another 756 in three seasons in Indianapolis.

There's a lot of risk with Tayor, but his ADP of 22 isn't egregious. If he's available at the bottom of Round 2 or early in Round 3, he's worth a flier—but managers had better have a backup plan in place, as Taylor remains on the PUP list.

New York Jets running back Breece Hall was a breakout rookie star in 2022 before suffering a torn ACL. He appears on track to play early in the season, but it's likely to take time to regain the explosiveness he flashed as a rookie.

With Dalvin Cook now in the fold and Aaron Rodgers expected to lead a more pass-oriented offense in New York, I'd avoid Hall at his current ADP of 40. He should be valued as a potential flex starter with upside.

I'm also fading Tony Pollard, who suffered a leg injury in the postseason, at an ADP of 17. He's expected to be the Dallas Cowboys' starter in 2023, but the Cowboys are again likely to use a committee approach.

According to ESPN's Dan Graziano, the Cowboys "still see Pollard as a player they have to be careful not to overwork if they're going to keep getting the best out of him."

Expect Pollard to again be a high-end RB2, not quite worth a mid-second-round pick.

I'm a little more bullish on Javonte Williams with an ADP of 69. The Denver Broncos' projected starter suffered a torn ACL last year but is healthy and made his preseason debut in Week 2. He's likely to split time with Samaje Perine, but he should be a serviceable starting RB2.

Two years ago, Los Angeles Rams wideout Cooper Kupp led the NFL with 1,947 receiving yards. Last season, he suffered a hamstring injury and only appeared in nine games.

The good news is that Kupp was highly productive in those games, catching 75 passes for 812 yards and six touchdowns. The 30-year-old also plans to be ready for the start of the regular season.

"Yeah, I feel like I am," Kupp told reporters.

Kupp should again be a viable WR1 in PPR leagues, even if his ADP of 6 may be just a tad high. I have bigger questions about the overall talent on the Rams offense than I do about Kupp's health, though.

Keenan Allen missed seven games for the Los Angeles Chargers in 2022 with hamstring injuries, and I'd be a little more cautious with him than with Kupp. Repeat injuries leave open the door for future injuries, and Allen may no longer be Justin Herbert's go-to target.

With Mike Williams and rookie Quentin Johnston also in the lineup, I'd value Allen a little lower than his current ADP of 42.

Though his injury didn't occur last season, Washington Commanders wideout Terry McLaruin is working back from a toe injury suffered in the preseason. If the Commanders are being cautious with their top pass-catcher—and they should be—I wouldn't count on having him available against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 1.

McLaurin shouldn't miss much time, however, and he's well worth his ADP of 51.

Like Kupp, Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford ended the 2022 season on the sideline. His season was ended by a neck injury and concussion, though he appears to be fully recovered now.

In fact, Stafford may perform better than he did before the injury last season. He missed a lot of offseason time following an elbow procedure and should be better prepared now than a year ago.

The issue, once again, is that the Rams lack talent after an offseason of purging veteran contracts. He has one great target in Kupp and a few serviceable pass-catchers in Van Jefferson, Ben Skowronek and Tyler Higbee. However, the L.A. offensive line is bad, and I have little faith in Cam Akers' ability to provide a consistent running game all season.

Stafford's ADP of 171 is fair, and he should be targeted as a backup and spot-starter at best.

San Francisco 49ers signal-caller Brock Purdy is coming off an elbow injury he suffered in the playoffs, but he has looked healthy in the preseason and is now the (nearly) unquestioned quarterback of the future in San Francisco.

Trey Lance was traded to the Cowboys over the weekend.

Purdy isn't going to be targeted as a starter in many drafts, but I believe he does have sleeper potential. With playmakers like Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey at his disposal, his ADP of 175 actually feels a little low.

I'd view former 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, now with the Las Vegas Raiders, similarly to Purdy. He has playmakers in Las Vegas and appears fully recovered from last year's foot injury. Garoppolo has an ADP of just 202.

Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray is a quarterback I'd avoid entirely on draft day. He's a capable dual-threat when healthy, but he's coming off a torn ACL, playing for one of the most talent-starved teams in the league and isn't even guaranteed to see the field in 2023.

I have no reservations about Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow, who suffered a calf injury in training camp. There's still a chance that he misses the season opener but he'll be on the field sooner than later, and he remains one of the most consistent signal-callers in fantasy.

I find Burrow's ADP of 34 to be a bit high, but I'm not an advocate for taking any QB in the first three rounds when a serviceable starter like Geno Smith and Purdy can be taken much, much later.

Tight end Darren Waller hasn't been a 1,000-yard receiver since 2020, as injuries have impacted each of his last two campaigns.

Now with the New York Giants, the former Raiders star could be poised for a bounce-back season. However, I'm not so sure he replicates his previous Pro Bowl success in what is very likely to be a run-heavy offense. I'm also not so certain that the 30-year-old is capable of completely leaving his injury woes behind.

With an ADP of 53, Waller is being overvalued.

Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts, on the other hand, is being undervalued with an ADP of 57. While Pitts' 2022 season was ended by a torn MCL, he appears on track to play early in the season.

"Physically, he looks great," Falcons head coach Arthur Smith said, per Daniel Flick of FanNation.

With Desmond Ridder replacing the woefully inconsistent Marcus Mariota as Atlanta's starting QB, Pitts stands a good chance of returning to the 1,000-yard form he showcased as a 2021 rookie.

Cardinals tight end Zach Ertz (ADP of 186) is another player I'd avoid on draft day, barring an inexplicable run at the position. He's recovering from a torn ACL and MCL, and while he should eventually return to the starting lineup, Arizona's quarterback situation is simply too uncertain to trust him.

Ertz may be a decent bye-week fill-in this season, but he should be plucked from the waiver wire and not selected on draft day.

*ADP from FantasyPros and current as of 8/27