10 Storylines to Watch at the 2023 MLB Winter Meetings

Now that Major League Baseball's Winter Meetings are underway in Nashville, Tennessee, will there finally be what feels like overdue action on the free agent and trade markets?

Maybe. Maybe not. Either way, there are certain storylines worth monitoring between now and the conclusion of the meetings on Thursday.

We're about to dive into 10 big ones that concern the fates of players who may or may not be trade bait, as well as various free agents whose markets have been defined by varying degrees of activity. Some may be about to conclude. Others might at least get some clarity.

In any case, let's get to it.

It wouldn't be a proper MLB offseason if unexpected names weren't turning up in trade rumors.

For instance, remember when there was buzz about the Philadelphia Phillies trading Nick Castellanos for, like, a day? That was wild, but not as wild as Toronto Blue Jays stars Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. turning up in rumors or the same happening with Houston Astros third baseman Alex Bregman.

It doesn't seem likely that any of those three guys will get moved. All three are core members of contending teams, and the Blue Jays are even known to want to add hitters.

And yet, it makes sense that their names are out there. All three are running short on club control at a time when their clubs could use salary relief, and each resembles something the open market is very short on: impact hitters.

It makes one wonder who could be next, which naturally brings us to the wonderful world of Speculation Land. For my part, I'll be surprised if Luis Arraez, Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna also pop up in trade rumors, but not that surprised.

Dylan Cease is still a member of the Chicago White Sox, so everyone can calm down for at least a minute.

And by "everyone," I'm of course referring to anyone who saw that tweet from MLB.com's Jon Morosi and got excited accordingly:

It's not surprising that Cease is still a White Sox, as it was the day after Morosi's report that Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that new general manager Chris Getz may prefer to wait on a trade until after the free-agent market thins out a bit.

Cease nonetheless has an active market, with Bob Nightengale of USA Today reporting that four teams are "clamoring" for the right-hander. And he's not the only ace who could be traded, as there's also been buzz aplenty about Cy Young Award winners Corbin Burnes and Shane Bieber and Tampa Bay Rays ace Tyler Glasnow, who seems especially likely to go.

Though there are hypothetical leverage-related reasons to wait until fewer starters are available in free agency, one can just as easily argue the opposite is true. If the White Sox, Rays, Milwaukee Brewers and Cleveland Guardians come to feel the same way, more than one ace could be on the move this week.

On the topic of ace starters available in free agency, very much in that discussion is left-hander Jordan Montgomery.

It wasn't long ago that he was a starter that the New York Yankees didn't even feel they needed. Now he's a World Series champion who's been one of MLB's 10 best starters dating back to Aug. 2022.

Such things bode well for Montgomery's earning power, and likewise for his lack of ties to draft-pick compensation and how Aaron Nola's re-signing with the Phillies set the market. Though MLB Trade Rumors seemed to aim high in projecting Nola for a six-year, $150 million deal, he beat that with a seven-year, $172 million agreement.

Otherwise, Montgomery isn't lacking for realistic suitors. Reunions with the Yankees, Texas Rangers or St. Louis Cardinals are said to be possible, and he's already living in Boston and has spoken with the Red Sox. The New York Mets are another logical landing spot.

To hear it from Mark Feinsand of MLB.com, Montgomery might even be the major free agent most likely to come off the board this week. So, stay tuned.

Montgomery is all well and good, but isn't Blake Snell the most desirable lefty starter on the open market?

One would think so, given that he just added a second Cy Young Award to his collection. And he did so in nearly unanimous fashion, earning 28 out of 30 first-place votes after posting a league-leading 2.25 ERA over 180 innings for the San Diego Padres.

However, Snell's section of the rumor mill has been oddly quiet. He apparently wants to pitch for his hometown Seattle Mariners, but there's been no indication that the interest is mutual. Otherwise, only the Phillies and Los Angeles Angels have been solidly connected to Snell.

It seems weird that a pitcher with Snell's creds isn't attracting more interest, but one supposes it's hard to overlook the reasons not to sign him. Today is his 31st birthday. He led the majors with 99 walks this year. He's not the most reliable innings eater. He's tied to draft-pick compensation. And so on.

Snell certainly isn't going to go unsigned, though, and it'll be a shock if more teams don't join the mix for him this week. Indeed, any newcomers might be rejects from the race for a certain 25-year-old sensation from Japan.

Contrary to Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto's market is capital-H Huge.

Shortly after his official posting by the Orix Buffaloes, Yamamoto's agent, Joel Wolfe, claimed that somewhere between 11 and 14 teams had expressed interest in the right-hander. Or, somewhere between basically one-third and basically one-half of the entire league.

Whittling a market that big down to a single winner is probably going to take time. As in, more time than the Winter Meetings have to offer.

Yet even if Yamamoto doesn't sign this week, the work of narrowing down his list of finalists has begun. According to SNY's Andy Martino, it started with a series of Zoom meetings last week and will continue with in-person meetings after the Winter Meetings.

What's for sure in the meantime is that there are good reasons why Yamamoto's market is so big. There's little not to like about any 25-year-old hurler with top-of-the-rotation stuff, much less one who'll come to MLB with a sub-2.00 ERA and three MVPs to show for his career in Japan.

The market for relief pitchers, meanwhile, would be unspectacular if the best closer of the last half-decade wasn't a free agent.

This, of course, is five-time All-Star Josh Hader. He's hypothetically worth something like the five-year, $102 million contract that Edwin Díaz scored from the Mets last winter, and Feinsand says he might even "eclipse" that mark:

Hey, why not? Hader did have that rough spell in the middle of 2022—during which there was a lot going on in his life—but he's otherwise been a dominant force in his seven major league seasons. He owns a career 2.50 ERA and has struck out 15 batters per nine innings.

Like with Snell, though, Hader's market hasn't been as active as one might have expected. The Phillies, Rangers and Chicago Cubs are good fits for him on paper, yet only the Baltimore Orioles are publicly known to have actually contacted the Maryland native.

It's doubtful that any of this portends disappointment for Hader, though. He's too good not to strike it rich, and this week may be just the excuse more teams need to get in touch.

Though the position player side of the open market is relatively weak, it does have its redeeming qualities.

Among them is one of the game's best two-way third basemen in the person of Matt Chapman, who has four Gold Gloves and 155 home runs in seven seasons. Projections for his next contract rightfully go into the $150 million range.

And yet, there's been a shortage of solid Chapman rumors. The San Francisco Giants and Arizona Diamondbacks have been floated as potential fits, and the Yankees may be another. But the D-backs no longer need Chapman after trading for Eugenio Suárez, and the Yankees' lineup frankly doesn't need another right-handed, strikeout-prone hitter.

Otherwise, the incumbent Blue Jays are still a fit for Chapman on paper. But their attention seems to be on Shohei Ohtani, in which case a serious effort to re-sign Chapman may have to wait.

On the plus side, teams like the Mets, Angels, Cubs and Detroit Tigers stand out as speculative fits for Chapman based on their needs at third base and deep pockets. If his market does pick up this week, it could be because one or more of them got involved.

As to the other big fish on the market for free-agent position players, there's little doubt that Cody Bellinger is going to make a lot of money.

According to MLB Trade Rumors, maybe even $264 million spread out over 12 years. Both numbers seem on the high end, but neither can be ruled out, either. This is, after all, a 28-year-old whose credentials include Rookie of the Year- and MVP-winning seasons, a World Series ring and a very good 2023 season.

Yet it's also no secret by now that Bellinger's '23 season comes with strings attached, specifically concerning the weirdly not great quality of his contact. Which could explain why his market is apparently so limited.

"Cubs, Yankees, Giants; if it's somebody else, it will be a surprise," Jon Heyman of the New York Post said on MLB Network on Nov. 15.

Because the list of teams that could use Bellinger certainly extends beyond those three, there may yet be a chance of others getting involved. To repeat a familiar refrain, maybe it will happen this week.

For the second time in as many years, Juan Soto is at the center of MLB's trade market.

The question doesn't seem to be if the Padres will move him, but rather one of when. They need pitching more than they need hitting, and his projected $33 million salary is no help to their plans to cut payroll.

It seemed to be Yankees or bust for Soto for a while there, but not so much anymore. Martino reported on Friday that New York and San Diego are "far apart" and that their negotiations have stalled accordingly.

This could mean an opportunity for the Blue Jays. According to Héctor Gómez of Z101 Digital, they're in on Soto and are even intensifying their negotiations to land the 25-year-old three-time All-Star.

As for whether this could become more than a two-horse race, let's just say that the Yankees and Blue Jays aren't the only teams that could use Soto's bat. Plus, it figures that he can only become more popular if the Padres wait to trade him until after the market's best free agent has signed.

OK, enough about all that other stuff. All anyone really wants to know is whether this will be the week Shohei Ohtani finally signs. And the answer may be yes.

"I'm thinking he may sign at the Winter Meetings, which would be very, very exciting," Heyman said during a B/R live chat on Wednesday. "That seems to be the prevailing opinion at this point."

On Sunday, Morosi pretty much echoed this stance:

Yet even if this is indeed the when, the where is still anyone's guess. Ohtani has been deliberately secretive with his free agency, even going so far as to hold it against teams if any visits are reported publicly.

Things are pointing toward a decision, however. As ESPN's Jeff Passan reported Friday, the Red Sox, Rangers and Mets are out, leaving the incumbent Angels as well as the Cubs, Blue Jays, Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers as the teams still in the bidding.

Oh, and Passan also reported that some expect the two-time MVP to command a contract worth $600 million. Or, shockingly close to twice the current record for new money in a contract, set by Mookie Betts' 12-year, $365 million deal with the Dodgers from 2020.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.