Ranking the Upset Potential for Every 2022 MLB Wild Card Underdog

Now that playoff head-to-heads are set, it's time to start gauging upset potential. The two best teams from each league get to sit out the wild-card round and automatically advance to the division series.

The question is, who will they face?

The higher seeds in each matchup have the upper hand with home-field advantage and also have the better odds to advance to the next round, per DraftKings Sportsbook. However, that doesn't necessarily mean that the favored teams will automatically take the next step in their World Series aspirations.

There is upset potential throughout these first four series in the wild-card round, so let's rank them here, starting with the underdog with the lowest chance to make it to the divisional round.

These are the two worst hitting teams in the postseason by OPS going into Wednesday's action. The Guardians (.699) ranked 16th across baseball, while Rays (.686) tied for 24th in this category.

Both squads made it this far mostly on the strength of their pitching. Tampa Bay's 3.41 team ERA heading into Wednesday was good for fourth in baseball, with Cleveland (3.46) not far behind at sixth.

So don't expect a ton of offense in this one. The first game is a battle of Shanes, McClanahan for Tampa and Bieber for Cleveland. McClanahan (2.54 ERA, 0.93 WHIP) is having a breakout season and would be the AL Cy Young frontrunner if not for Justin Verlander.

Bieber (2.88 ERA, 1.04 WHIP) is not pitching to his 2020 Cy Young form, but he's still pretty good.

Lanky right-hander Triston McKenzie takes the mound for Cleveland in Game 2. He's also been impressive this season, touting a 2.96 ERA and 0.95 WHIP.

Tyler Glasnow showed enough in two starts back from Tommy John surgery for the Rays to believe he still has elite stuff that can play in the postseason.

If you prefer to watch good pitching and fundamentally sound baseball, this is the series for you.

The Guardians went 4-2 with a plus-six run differential in six regular-season games against the Rays, but two of those games went to extra innings, and five ended with a margin of two or fewer runs.

Getting swept by Atlanta last weekend complicated things significantly for the Mets.

Instead of winning the NL East, as they had been for much of the season, they squeeze in as a wild card and have to face a Padres team that's played well against them this season.

San Diego went 4-2 in six games against the Mets in the regular season. Perhaps more importantly, they have three pitchers at the top of their rotation in Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove and Blake Snell who could credibly match up with the Mets' trio of Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Chris Bassitt.

Although there have been reports of the Mets possibly saving deGrom for the NLDS depending on if the Mets win Game 1 and 2 with Scherzer and Bassitt.

The Padres are not without their flaws. The blockbuster trade acquisitions they made have yet to really pan out the way they had expected.

San Diego sacrificed its farm system for some of the most coveted pieces in baseball at the trade deadline. But despite acquiring Juan Soto and Josh Bell from the Washington Nationals, Brandon Drury from the Cincinnati Reds, and Josh Hader from the Milwaukee Brewers, the Padres went 29-27 after the Aug. 2 deadline.

Meanwhile, the Mets went all in this offseason, signing Scherzer, Starling Marte, Mark Canha, Eduardo Escobar and trading for Bassitt.

The stakes are really high in this one after both teams went all-in. But the potential for San Diego to upset New York is there, especially if Soto suddenly starts hitting like a generational talent again.

It seems appropriate the last time Philly was in the postseason, it was the St. Louis Cardinals who defeated them in the NLDS on their way to a World Series title.

The Phillies have not been the same since, posting a record of .500 or worse from 2012-20. But finally, with an expanded playoff format, they get a rematch 11 years in the making.

Think of how much has changed since then. It was the last time we saw elite Ryan Howard, who went down with an Achilles injury on the final play of Game 5 against the Cardinals. It was also Pujols' final year of his first act in St. Louis, where he won a second championship.

Fast forward to now, and Pujols is hitting like the player he was then. The Phillies have their own MVP in Bryce Harper and brought along reinforcements in the outfield with Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos in the offseason.

Offense shouldn't be a problem in this series. Both teams rank top seven in runs scored, top eight in OPS and top nine in home runs.

The Phillies went 4-3 in seven games against the Cardinals this season. That's a much better matchup for them than going against the division rival Mets, who they went 5-14 against, including a 3-7 home record.

Toronto has the top wild-card spot with a 92-70 record that would have tied the Guardians for the AL Central lead.

The Blue Jays were a popular preseason World Series pick based on the promising talent led by the likes of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, George Springer, Alek Manoah and Teoscar Hernández. They also traded for Matt Chapman and Whit Merrifield and signed Kevin Gausman as a free agent.

It was a good, young team that appeared to get better with its acquisitions. Yet Toronto still never quite hit that stride some were expecting before the season.

The Mariners did. And Seattle, after snapping the longest postseason drought in North American pro sports, carries a 5-2 regular-season record against the Blue Jays. The .286 winning percentage Toronto had against Seattle tied for the lowest mark of any team they played this season.

The Mariners have the pitching, between former Blue Jays ace Robbie Ray and Luis Castillo, to neutralize Toronto in a three-game series.

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