Big Ten Football: Preview and Predictions for 2022 Season

Michigan won the league last year, but Ohio State enters the 2022 college football season as the overwhelming Big Ten favorite.

Not since 2010-13 has OSU gone two-plus seasons without standing atop the conference. Ryan Day's team still finished 11-2 last year and returns All-American quarterback C.J. Stroud and wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

However, the reigning-champion Wolverines—along with Iowa, Michigan State, Penn State and Wisconsin in particular—are aiming to keep the Buckeyes off the pedestal once again.

B/R's preview of the Big Ten includes star players, top storylines, key games and just about everything short of USC and UCLA.

The road to Indianapolis and the Big Ten Championship Game goes through Columbus—even though it technically starts in Ireland.

Ohio State's Trio

In his first year as a starter, C.J. Stroud finished fourth in Heisman Trophy voting and was a third-team AP All-America choice. Jaxon Smith-Njigba caught 95 passes for 1,606 yards, the third-highest mark nationally. Running back TreVeyon Henderson totaled 1,567 scrimmage yards and 19 scores as a true freshman. There's incredible talent on Ohio State's offense.

The Big-Name Backs

Mohamed Ibrahim basically missed all of 2021, but Minnesota's standout back has 3,003 rushing yards and 33 touchdowns in his career. Ibrahim and Henderson will be sharing the spotlight with Wisconsin bruiser Braelon Allen, who powered his way to 1,268 yards and 12 scores in his first college season.

Peter Skoronski, LT, Northwestern

Even if Northwestern has another frustrating year, the program boasts one of the country's premier offensive linemen. Peter Skoronski, a two-year starter for the Wildcats, was Pro Football Focus' highest-graded left tackle in the conference last season. He's also a valued NFL prospect, should he turn pro following his junior campaign this fall.

Michigan's Fascinating Encore

Jim Harbaugh peeked into an NFL position but decided to stay. Both coordinators exited for new opportunities, while Michigan lost five draft picks and a half-dozen more pro signings. The quarterback battle between Cade McNamara and J.J. McCarthy is ongoing and very likely makes its way into the regular season. It should be a good season, but can the Wolverines repeat?

Ohio State's Redemption Tour

This offseason included an aura of bitterness despite the team posting an 11-2 record and Rose Bowl victory last year. Stroud and the offense have sensational upside, but a highly inconsistent defense has much to prove under new coordinator Jim Knowles. Although the schedule is tough, the redemption-minded Buckeyes appear built for the challenge.

Who Surprises This Time?

After a 7-6 season in 2018, Minnesota climbed as high as seventh in the AP poll and finished 11-2 in 2019. Northwestern went 3-9 that season, then surged to 7-2 with a West Division crown in 2020. Last year, Michigan State soared from 2-5 to a transfer-fueled 11-2. Will the trend of a true breakout team continue in 2022?

The Favorites

Ohio State is the runaway favorite. You could use consensus thought, preseason polls and betting odds, but ESPN's Football Power Index giving the Buckeyes a 73.7 percent chance of winning the Big Ten is wild. Behind them, Michigan and Wisconsin are the prime contenders.

Michigan State Spartans

The lone remaining ranked team in the preseason AP poll, Michigan State is attempting to build on an impressive year. The best news is MSU returns quarterback Payton Thorne—who seemed a bit underappreciated with 3,233 yards and 27 touchdowns to 10 picks—last season. The secondary and a thorny schedule are major obstacles, but Mel Tucker proved us wrong in 2021.

Penn State Nittany Lions

Following a 5-0 start last season, Penn State tumbled to six losses in the last eight games. That stretch included some truly awful offensive days, something that may appear occasionally again in 2022. The promising news is the defense should be superb, and the conference slate is quite manageable. If the Nittany Lions create one break and catch a fortunate bounce, they'll be in the picture.

Wherever the West is Won

Oh, what a division. There is always an above-average squad, but there's rarely a national contender. The narrative feels the same in 2022, as Iowa and Wisconsin face the likelihood of low-ceiling offenses. Minnesota should be competitive, but none of Purdue, Northwestern, Illinois and Nebraska are particularly inspiring.

If you've followed the sport recently, you knew Scott Frost would be prominently featured in this section.

Since returning to his alma mater in 2018, the former Nebraska quarterback is 15-29 overall with a 10-25 conference record. Worst of all, the Huskers bottomed out in 2022. They had a season of close losses yet registered a Big Ten-worst 1-8 league mark.

One key contract detail to know: Frost's buyout drops from $15 million to $7.5 million after Oct. 1.

Consequently, it's more fiscally responsible for Nebraska to not pull a USC—which ditched Clay Helton after two games last season. But if the Huskers start poorly, Frost's fate may be just about sealed as the calendar flips to October.

No other Big Ten coach that begins the season is in imminent danger, though a nine-loss record certainly could change that.

Ireland!

Aug. 27: Nebraska vs. Northwestern (in Dublin)

Meaningful? Other than it being the first conference matchup of the season, probably not. Unique? You bet.

Nonconference Games

Sept. 3: Notre Dame at Ohio State
Sept. 10: Washington State at Wisconsin
Sept. 17: Penn State at Auburn; Michigan State at Washington

The first showdown on the list—only the seventh all-time meeting of Notre Dame and OSU—doubles as the best nonconference game of the 2022 season. Over the next two weekends, Wisconsin, Penn State and MSU take on a seldom-seen power-conference opponent.

The Big Ten's Big 4

Sep. 24: Wisconsin at Ohio State
Oct. 29: Michigan State at Michigan
Nov. 12: Wisconsin at Iowa
Nov. 26: Michigan at Ohio State

On the final weekend of September, division favorites Wisconsin and OSU square off in Columbus. To close October, Michigan aims for revenge on rival Michigan State. Then in November, the main contenders in the West and East divisions, respectively, meet for potentially decisive games.

Best of the Rest

Sep. 24: Minnesota at Michigan State
Oct. 1: Michigan at Iowa
Oct. 8: Ohio State at Michigan State
Oct. 29: Ohio State at Penn State

Will either Minnesota or MSU surge in the standings? That hopeful rise starts with a September victory in East Lansing. Otherwise, the remainder is focused on key trips for Michigan and Ohio State—which both enjoy an 8:4 home/road split this season.

No surprise here.

Stroud, Henderson and Smith-Njigba are top-15 players nationally—and that's probably a conservative number. There probably isn't much resistance to labeling them all top-10 talents, which is genuinely absurd for a single offense.

However, the appeal isn't solely about the Buckeyes' superstar trio. Overall, this unit is stacked.

Up front, OSU returns three starters plus Matthew Jones—a very regular player over the last two seasons. The new receivers include Marvin Harrison Jr, who caught three touchdowns in the Rose Bowl, and former top prospects Julian Fleming and Emeka Egbuka.

Factor in Ryan Day's proven offensive system, and the Buckeyes seem destined for another powerful year.

Iowa has several key pieces to replace, but every unit of the defense—one that ranked seventh nationally in yards allowed per play last season—returns a couple of starters.

Most notably, Zach VanValkenburg was the lone departure on the line. Granted, he was a major one (15 tackles for loss), but the Hawkeyes have unleashed a different player with 10-plus TFLs in every season since 2013. They'll figure it out.

At linebacker, Iowa has a pair of 100-tackle returners in Jack Campbell (143) and Seth Benson (105). For good measure, Jestin Jacobs (53) finished fifth on the defense last season.

Riley Moss, the league's 2021 Defensive Back of the Year, headlines the secondary. Jermari Harris will play opposite him at corner. Kaevon Merriweather is back at safety, so the only new starters are the Cash hybrid—likely Cooper DeJean—and safety Quinn Schulte.

Whether the Iowa offense can score consistently is again a major question, but this defense should be fierce.

East Division

Ohio State: 12-0 (9-0 in Big Ten)

Michigan: 10-2 (7-2)

Michigan State: 9-3 (6-3)

Penn State: 8-4 (6-3)

Maryland: 7-5 (4-5)

Indiana: 5-7 (3-6)

Rutgers: 3-9 (1-8)

West Division

Wisconsin: 9-3 (6-3)

Iowa: 9-3 (6-3)

Minnesota: 7-5 (4-5)

Nebraska: 6-6 (4-5)

Purdue: 6-6 (3-6)

Illinois: 5-7 (3-6)

Northwestern: 3-9 (1-8)

Michigan has a solid roster, but a reasonably soft schedule will boost the Wolverines along the way. We're expecting a winner-take-all showdown in the regular-season finale at Ohio State.

Unfortunately for the Wolverines, the result will flip in 2022.

Ohio State's high-powered offense will be too much for Michigan—and then Wisconsin in the conference championship game—to contain. Stroud will likely be heading back to New York as a finalist for the Heisman Trophy, too.

Still, a return to Indianapolis would be a welcomed sign for Wisconsin. Until last season, the Badgers hadn't had a drought longer than two seasons since the conference split in 2011.

Although the West will continue lagging behind the East overall, both divisions should have a tense race into the final weekend.

Projected Big Ten Champion: Ohio State Buckeyes