NASCAR at Daytona 2022: Odds, Preview and Top Storylines
The NASCAR Cup Series' regular-season finale at Daytona has more drama attached to it than we first thought.
Two playoff spots will be up for grabs on Saturday night after Kurt Busch announced on Thursday that he will miss the start of the postseason because of his ongoing concussion-like symptoms.
Fourteen race winners from earlier in the season are locked into the postseason field. If one of those drivers wins at Daytona, the last two playoff positions would be filled by points.
Ryan Blaney and Martin Truex Jr. are the two drivers without a win who have the most points. Blaney and Truex were locked in a points battle over the last few weeks to set up what they thought may have been a head-to-head showdown at Daytona.
Blaney and Truex could still be locked in a battle for the final playoff spot if a new race winner emerges.
Daytona brings so many variables to a race because of the drafting between cars, quick movement up the field and the big wrecks that come with tight racing.
Blaney is the reigning champion of the summer race at Daytona, and he is one of a few drivers not locked into the postseason who have won at the Florida track.
Coke Zero Sugar 400 Odds
Chase Elliott (+1000; bet $100 to win $1,000)
Ryan Blaney (+1200)
Denny Hamlin (+1200)
Bubba Wallace (+1200)
William Byron (+1300)
Ross Chastain (+1300)
Kyle Larson (+1300)
Joey Logano (+1300)
Kyle Busch (+1500)
Austin Cindric (+1500)
Martin Truex Jr. (+1800)
Tyler Reddick (+2000)
Daniel Suárez (+2000)
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Will an Unexpected Winner Emerge from Field?
Daytona is the perfect track to produce an unexpected winner.
A win would mean even more for the drivers who have not made trips to Victory Lane this season because it would land them in the postseason.
Austin Cindric captured the first playoff spot back in February when he outlasted Bubba Wallace to win the Daytona 500.
Since 2017, Denny Hamlin is the only driver to win twice at Daytona. Kurt Busch, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Austin Dillon, Erik Jones, Justin Haley, William Byron, Michael McDowell, Ryan Blaney and Cindric are the winners in that span.
Stenhouse, Dillon, Jones, Haley, McDowell and Blaney all come into Daytona without a win in 2022.
Half of the top 10 from the Daytona 500 could not manage a win between February and the end of August. Wallace, Blaney, Aric Almirola, McDowell and Brad Keselowski finished inside the top 10 in February.
Recent history at Daytona suggests that the chances of an unexpected winner emerging from the field are far more likely there than at most tracks on the Cup Series circuit.
The difference between Saturday's race and the Daytona 500 may be the willingness to take more risks from drivers and teams not yet in the postseason. Race strategies will be similar because of the drafting component between cars, but you could see more aggressive moves from racers, especially in the final few laps, so they can secure the elusive first victory of 2022.
How Does Ryan Blaney Handle The Race?
Ryan Blaney was the biggest beneficiary from the news of Kurt Busch pulling out of the postseason hunt.
Busch has been out for a month since the race in New Hampshire because of concussion-like symptoms. Busch took himself out of championship contention on Thursday because he will not be ready for the start of the playoffs.
That means two playoff spots are up for grabs, and Blaney does not have to win to secure a spot in the 16-man postseason field.
Blaney comes into Daytona with a 25-point edge on Truex in the points standings. He just needs to preserve that lead over Truex to qualify for the postseason on points.
Blaney won the August race at Daytona last season, and his teammate, Cindric, captured the Daytona 500 win in February. Blaney made it two Penske Racing cars in the top four with a fourth-place finish in February.
Truex landed in 13th place at the Daytona 500, and he finished back in 29th place in the August race last season.
The recent results suggest Blaney has an edge over Truex at Daytona and that he is essentially locked into the postseason field as long as a massive mistake does not happen.
That may lead to Blaney driving a more conservative race to avoid any wrecks and maintain his advantage over Truex. Of course, a win would be terrific for the confidence of the No. 12 team, but that is no longer the goal. The primary task is to keep the car safe and get it into the postseason field.
Truex, on the other hand, needs to be a bit more aggressive. He could land in the postseason on points if one of the previous 14 race winners takes the checkered flag first. Truex likely has to go for the win to avoid any chance of a random winner taking over the 16th and final playoff position.
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