5 Lessons Learned 1 Year On from the Matthew Tkachuk Trade

They say don't judge a trade the day it's done—judge it a year later (and keep checking in years after that).

Well, it's officially been just over one year since the Calgary Flames sent Matthew Tkachuk to the Florida Panthers for a package that included Jonathan Huberdeau and MacKenzie Weegar. It was largely regarded as a win for Florida at the time. As the Flames unraveled and the Panthers fought into a playoff spot and then the Stanley Cup Final, it only aged better and better for Florida as the season went on.

Best part? The Panthers have got Tkachuk signed for under $10 million per year through 2029-30. What should we take away—and what should we take with a grain of salt—about the Tkachuk trade, one year later?

As magical as the Panthers' Stanley Cup Final run was, we can't quite call them Cinderellas.

The clock struck midnight as the Golden Knights won the Cup, but Tkachuk didn't turn into a pumpkin, and Florida still has him at a $9.5 million cap hit through 2029-30.

This would be huge regardless of the projected NHL cap situation. Tkachuk came off a career year in which he jumped from 43 points in 56 games to 104 points (42 goals) in 82. Many clubs are—and should be—hesitant about signing a player long-term after a career year. It doesn't always work out this well, as Tkachuk followed up his career-best 104 points with a career-high 109 points (40 goals, 69 assists), but there were a few green flags that Panthers GM Bill Zito read correctly.

Tkachuk was only 24 at the time of the trade (and contract extension), so it was likely a player like him hadn't peaked yet. Then, the season before that he only played 56 games, so it's not like he jumped from 43 points to 104 points in a fluke-like fashion.

There was still a concern at the time that maybe Tkachuk would struggle without some of his heavy-hitting linemates in Calgary, and maybe that's where the sub-$10 million AAV contract comes in. But obviously, he and his chip-on-the-shoulder personality proved that wrong with his Hart finalist performance and playoff encore.

Contemporary comparables are generally making more like David Pastrnak's $11.25 million AAV contract signed last season and Tkachuk's trade counterpart Huberdeau locked in until 2030 at a $10.5 million cap hit.

Finally, consider that it's very possible the cap ceiling will finally jump around $20 million to $100 million in the next four years. Negotiations are going to be brutal, but again, the Panthers have their star locked down in his prime.

Tkachuk has one of the best contracts in the NHL right now by far (compared to his value), and even if he has a few down years as we approach 2030, it's paying off for the Panthers.

NHL GMs are generally risk averse and a front office executive once explained it to me like this: "It's a lot harder to get fired for a risk you didn't take than one you did."

But how many teams do you think are kicking themselves right now for passing up on Tkachuk, especially with his reasonable contract and the cap likely rising in the next few years?

Then again, not many teams had a Huberdeau and a Weegar to give up, and even fewer teams would be willing to let go of such huge, certain pieces of their teams to swap in more of an unknown variable. But how many of those teams have made significant progress doing the same thing and expecting different results?

You could look at this from the Flames' lens and say trading Tkachuk actually didn't work out, but he was always the best player in the deal and he wanted to leave Calgary anyways. The Panthers have helped prove that if a player who's better than one of your key players is available—especially if your key player is looking for an extension—you need to seriously consider it.

No, this isn't rocket science, but hopefully it makes NHL GMs a little less scared of taking a risk.

Don't take the word "lucky" the wrong way, but it is worth mentioning that blockbuster trades don't always yield such a fruitful result. The Jaromir Jagr to Washington trade in 2001 comes to mind with a significant dip in production.

And, again, Huberdeau didn't have the most glowing season on the Flames in 2023, dropping from 30 goals and 115 points in 80 games with Florida in 2021-22, to 15 goals and 55 points in 79 games with Calgary in 2022-23.

I'll still say, Tkachuck had a far more consistent point-per-game-y resume over the years, and Huberdeau's 115-point season was an anomaly (and only the second time he reached the 30-goal mark.)

But with the human element, the uncertainty of moving a player to a new system—especially a player who's been on one team his whole career—and plenty other factors like caliber of linemates and coaching, you just never know.

That's why they call these things calculated risks and the Panthers' risk has (so far) worked out better than anyone could have imagined.

In the last 25 years, there are only two NHL players with at least 80 points, 300 shots and 100 PIMs in a regular season. Their names are Matthew Tkachuk and Brady Tkachuk.

No, PIMs aren't always an ideal measure of a player's worth, or even toughness, especially in 2023 when the rate of stick penalty calls is higher than ever. But if you watch these two play, you know it's their ability to get under an opponent's skin—not a high-stick or seven—that has them racking up the penalty minutes.

They were obviously raised by their legend of a father Keith Tkachuk to play a certain way, and they've honed the skill to fit perfectly in the modern NHL. You just don't come across players with this particular set of skills every day.

With the spotlight on Matthew after the trade, he ramped it up and shone for a career year in all aspects of his game.

Don't sleep on the importance of a small market on the rise getting such an entertaining player as its star. Tkachuk was able to transcend the hockey bubble last season, with two highlights in his interview with Charles Barkley on NBA on TNT and his appearance in PEOPLE Magazine.

Some diehard hockey fans were a little pressed that PEOPLE named him the "face of the NHL," but when you really think about it, doesn't Tkachuk represent so many aspects of the game? You've got the old-time hits still intact, the new-school speed and skill, the confidence, the fun, storied family, and of course, the chirps.

Can you think of anyone who better encapsulates what it means to be a hockey player in 2023? It was great for the sport that Tkachuk made it to the Final doing what he did and it's great for the Panthers that one of the emerging faces of hockey is locked down long-term on their club.