Ranking the Top 15 MLB Pitchers Currently Recovering from Tommy John Surgery

Undergoing at least one Tommy John surgery has practically become a rite of passage for Major League Baseball pitchers.

Case in point: Of the 26 players to log at least 10 innings pitched for the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2023, 14—yes, more than half—have had a TJ surgery at some point in their careers. (The Dodgers also had Daniel Hudson, Alex Reyes, Jimmy Nelson and Walker Buehler, who didn't pitch 10 innings last year.)

While we might not have reached the tipping point where surgically repaired UCLs are responsible for more innings pitched in a season than elbows that haven't had a Tommy John surgery, it has to be getting close.

(If Max Scherzer's recent assertion that the pitch clock is to blame for more severe injuries to pitchers, we'll cross that threshold soon enough.)

And the long list of pitchers currently recovering from TJ surgery is quite star-studded—without even including Shohei Ohtani, who underwent an undisclosed, not officially Tommy John UCL surgery in September.

A handful of these guys most likely will pitch at some point in 2024. Some of them definitely will not. But we have—with surgical precision—put together a ranking of the 15 best pitchers presently on the TJ mend.

Other noteworthy pitchers not in the Top 15 (in alphabetical order by last name): Ian Anderson, Matthew Boyd, JT Brubaker, Kris Bubic, Cade Cavalli, Scott Effross, Tyler Matzek, Easton McGee, Max Meyer, Casey Mize, Kumar Rocker, Trevor Rosenthal, Antonio Senzatela, Lou Trivino, Justin Wilson. Also, position players Riley Greene and Jasson Domínguez are recovering from Tommy John surgery.

15. Drey Jameson, Arizona Diamondbacks (9/27/23 surgery date)

In his first taste of the majors in 2022, Jameson made four impressive starts at the tail end of the season, all but forcing the Diamondbacks to put him on the next Opening Day roster. He wasn't quite as prolific in 2023, but it's hard to argue with a 3.32 ERA in 40.2 innings split between long relief and spot starts.

Unfortunately, he will likely miss all of the 2024 season given how late in the year he had his operation.

14. Shane Baz, Tampa Bay Rays (9/28/22)

This ranking might be too low for one of the highest-rated prospects in all of baseball heading into 2022, but Baz made it only nine MLB starts before undergoing TJ surgery and missing all of this past season.

Here's hoping he's good to go in 2024, because the Rays have two other pitchers higher on this list and desperately need him back.

13. Dustin May, Los Angeles Dodgers (7/18/23)

Technically, May didn't have Tommy John surgery. He underwent a flexor tendon surgery and had a "reconstruction revision" to the TJ procedure that was done in 2021. But he is expected to miss at least 12 months, so we'll include him here.

May has a career ERA of 3.10. However, he has logged between 23 and 56 innings in each of the past five seasons, and he may well be on track to end 2024 in a similar spot.

12. Luis Garcia, Houston Astros (5/19/23)

The first runner-up to Randy Arozarena for 2021 AL Rookie of the Year, Garcia had become a reliable arm in the middle of Houston's rotation, making 62 starts with a 3.63 ERA over the past three seasons. But after back-to-back scoreless outings in late April, he left two pitches into his sixth start on 2023 with what ended up being the dreaded season-ending injury.

He should be back at some point in 2024, but the Astros will likely need to get through the first half of the season without both Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr., who had a flexor tendon surgery in June.

11. Jeffrey Springs, Tampa Bay Rays (4/24/23)

Springs pitched more innings in 2022 (135.1) than he did from 2018-21 combined (129.1). Perhaps that transition from reliever back to starter was too rapid for his UCL to handle, because he lasted just 16 masterful innings into this past season before getting shut down with a 0.56 ERA.

It's extremely unlikely he'll be back by opening day, but an April 24 surgery could put the 31-year-old southpaw back on the mound by the All-Star Break.

Career Stats: 34-11, 375.2 IP, 3.19 ERA, 3.99 FIP, 1.05 WHIP, 8.4 K/9, 7.9 bWAR

TJ Surgery Date: Sept. 1, 2023

For Tony Gonsolin, the torn UCL wasn't some sudden injury out of nowhere. Both he and manager Dave Roberts said he had been dealing with elbow pain for most of the season which just kept getting worse until he couldn't get batters out anymore.

Gonsolin started the year on the IL with an ankle injury, but through his first nine starts, he was every bit as good as he was in 2022, when he went 16-1 with a 2.14 ERA. In this case, he was 4-1 with a 1.93 ERA.

From mid-June onward, though, he was a completely different pitcher, allowing 15 home runs in 11 starts with a 7.51 ERA before finally getting shut down and getting the Tommy John surgery.

Given how late in the season the operation took place, it's unlikely that Gonsolin will pitch in 2024. Teammate Walker Buehler had his (second) TJ surgery on August 23, 2022, and though he did make a two-inning rehab appearance in early September, the Dodgers quickly decided to save his arm for 2024.

Gonsolin is still arbitration-eligible through 2026, so at least he won't hit free agency immediately after a season lost to injury. Perhaps he can get back to his pre-injury stingy ERA and become a coveted member of that free-agent class three years from now.

Career Stats: 33-41, 635.2 IP, 4.30 ERA, 4.27 FIP, 1.30 WHIP, 9.6 K/9, 9.1 bWAR

TJ Surgery Date: May 22, 2023

During a quietly impressive 2021 campaign, Tyler Mahle struck out a career-high 210 batters. His ERA (3.75) wasn't anything special, but he had to pitch his home games at Great American Ballpark, which is right up there with Coors Field as far as launching pads go. In his 18 road starts that season, he had a 2.30 ERA.

Unfortunately, he was hampered by a shoulder injury throughout 2022 and was only able to make five starts this past season for Minnesota—with a 3.16 ERA and 1.05 WHIP—before going under the Tommy John knife. That's early enough in the season that he should make it back to the mound in 2024, but late enough that it might not be until after the All-Star break.

That combination of factors makes Mahle an uncommonly intriguing free agent. He's only 29 years old, but given the uncertainty about when he'll be available this coming season, there's almost no way he gets a long-term deal.

Perhaps he'll get something similar to Tyler Glasnow's current contract: a two-year, $30.35 million deal in which the salary for the second, presumed fully healthy season was nearly quintuple that of the first. Or maybe one of those "one year plus a player option for a second year" deals that have become popular for players who need to prove that they're healthy?

Either way, Mahle could be an X-factor in the second half of 2024.

Career Stats: 65-56, 1,016.0 IP, 4.41 ERA, 4.02 FIP, 1.28 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, 17.7 bWAR

TJ Surgery Date: May 12, 2023

Germán Márquez is evidently quite comfortable in Colorado. He has already been one of the most valuable pitchers in the franchise's three-decade history, and he signed a two-year, $20 million extension in September to remain with the Rockies through 2025. (The deal also includes escalators for 2025 that could increase the total value to $30 million.)

Pitching at Coors Field hasn't been particularly kind to Márquez, though, as he has considerable home/road splits that suggest he is better than his career numbers. He has a rough 5.07 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in Colorado and solid 3.80 ERA and 1.18 WHIP marks when pitching anywhere else.

It was in Colorado where the ominous forearm tightness originated this past season. He was pulled 62 pitches into his first home start of the 2023 campaign before landing on the IL for two weeks. He came back to make one more start, but he underwent Tommy John surgery about two weeks after that attempt to pitch through the pain.

Márquez has been mostly healthy throughout his career, though, making 166 starts from 2017-22. Only Gerrit Cole, Patrick Corbin and Aaron Nola were more consistently able to take the mound during that six-year stretch. So, maybe he'll be on the quicker end of the typical TJ recovery timeline and will be able to make it back early in 2024.

Then again, what's the rush? Colorado is going to be widely projected for a last-place finish in the NL West, if not the entire National League. It's probably best to make sure Márquez is fully recovered before even thinking about rehab assignments.

Career Stats: 46-16, 638.1 IP, 3.02 ERA, 3.26 FIP, 1.04 WHIP, 9.7 K/9, 13.7 bWAR

TJ Surgery Date: Aug. 23, 2022

According to the Tommy John Surgery list meticulously maintained by Jon Roegele (@MLBPlayerAnalys), there are 149 players (not necessarily all pitchers) who have had multiple TJ surgeries in their careers. Four of those players are on this list: Dustin May, Shane McClanahan, Jacob deGrom and Walker Buehler.

With the exception of May, though, we're talking about big gaps between the surgeries. Buehler lasted more than seven years before needing his second TJ, while McClanahan (almost eight years) and deGrom (nearly 13 years) went even longer.

Buehler tried to avoid joining that list, going more than two months between his last pitch of the 2022 season and the operation. He did have arthroscopic surgery to remove bone spurs from his elbow in June 2022, but he and the Dodgers were hopeful he could return that September.

It wasn't meant to be, though. Nor was he able to return in September of this past season, despite beginning a rehab assignment and despite Los Angeles' undeniable need for pitching down the stretch.

But if Buehler can get back to what he once was—a force of nature who ranked seventh in the majors in fWAR from 2018-21 and twice received NL Cy Young votes—what a blessing that would be, both for the Dodgers in 2024 and for the bank account of the ace-caliber pitcher who's hitting free agency next offseason.

Career Stats: 33-34, 116 SV, 650.0 IP, 3.82 ERA, 3.26 FIP, 1.20 WHIP, 10.1 K/9, 9.3 bWAR

TJ Surgery Date: Aug. 2, 2023

Getting that torn UCL diagnosis is a cruel fate for any pitcher, but it was particularly unfair for Liam Hendriks, who lasted just 5.0 innings after coming back from non-Hodgkin's lymphoma before suffering the injury.

Prior to both the cancer and the torn UCL, Hendriks had cemented himself as the best closer in the majors. From 2019-22, he racked up 114 saves with a 2.20 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP and a 13.6 K/9, generating Cy Young votes in both 2020 and 2021. Per FanGraphs, he was the most valuable reliever over the course of those four years, and it wasn't even close.

The big questions every MLB team must now be wondering about the soon-to-be 35-year-old free agent are: Can he get back to that level of dominance? And how quickly?

If Hendriks returns exactly one year after having his TJ surgery—an aggressive timeline, but who knows?—he could be one heck of a trade-deadline "acquisition" for the team that signs him this offseason. He could also be a trendy name on the trade block if said team isn't in the mix for a playoff spot by the time he's ready to take the mound again.

Career Stats: 33-16, 404.2 IP, 3.02 ERA, 3.36 FIP, 1.11 WHIP, 10.1 K/9, 8.6 bWAR

TJ Surgery Date: Aug. 21, 2023

Shane McClanahan is recovering from his second TJ surgery. The first one occurred when he was 18 years old.

Despite Tampa Bay's best efforts to not overexert the young ace—he has only once pitched into the eighth inning of a start and has never thrown more than 102 pitches in a start—McClanahan had to go back under the knife to re-repair a torn UCL.

Originally, though, the issue was back pain.

After a dominant first 15 starts—McClanahan was the favorite for AL Cy Young in late June with a 2.12 ERA—he had back-to-back short starts and missed a few weeks with the back injury.

He wasn't anywhere near as impressive in his four starts after that brief hiatus, and he may have been putting too much strain on his forearm/elbow to compensate for the back, because he needed TJ surgery barely a month after the All-Star break.

Late-August TJs rarely make it back to the big leagues the following season, as most pitchers need at least 14 months to recover. But for "never say never" purposes, it's worth pointing out that Dakota Hudson had TJ surgery on Sept. 28, 2020, and was back on the mound for the Cardinals on Sept. 24, 2021.

So even though it's unlikely, we'll say it's possible McClanahan makes the September return that the Dodgers were hoping Walker Buehler would be able to make this past season. And maybe he can lead the Rays to a postseason victory before their current seven-game losing streak in October becomes an inescapable narrative.

Career Stats: 74-71, 1,228.0 IP, 3.96 ERA, 4.07 FIP, 1.31 WHIP, 11.0 K/9, 17.6 bWAR

TJ Surgery Date: May 3, 2023

While Shane McClanahan was on track to win a Cy Young if he had been able to stay healthy last season, Robbie Ray did win one in 2021. He led the AL in innings pitched, ERA, WHIP and strikeouts during that magical contract year.

The whiff-inducing southpaw was also a strong Cy Young candidate in 2017, finishing top 10 in that vote despite missing a month of action. Long story short, when Ray is on his game, few pitchers are better.

We did not get a chance to see that version of Ray in 2023, though, as he didn't even make it to April before suffering the season-ending injury.

That was most unfortunate for the 2023 Mariners, who ended up missing the playoffs by a single game. They may well have won the AL West with some room to spare with a healthy Ray.

But the good news for the 2024 M's is that Ray had his surgery early in the year and might be able to make 15-20 starts if there aren't any hiccups in his rehab timeline.

If he does make it back at anything close to his usual level of excellence, Seattle's rotation could be some kind of special, both in 2024 and for several years to come.

Career Stats: 12-6, 48 SV, 126.2 IP, 1.85 ERA, 2.42 FIP, 0.92 WHIP, 14.1 K/9, 5.6 bWAR

TJ Surgery Date: Oct. 9, 2023

Deciding where to rank "The Mountain" was mighty difficult, since Félix Bautista is both A) a relief pitcher and B) the only arm on this list that received 2023 Cy Young votes.

But with a fastball that routinely hits triple digits and a splitter against which hitters have gone 17-for-166 (.102 batting average) with 110 strikeouts thus far in his career, Bautista is as good as it gets these days.

Although Bautista missed the final six weeks of the regular season, FanGraphs rates him as the most valuable reliever since the beginning of 2022. And that's merely with a 4.1 fWAR compared to his 5.6 bWAR.

He struck out a preposterous 46.4 percent of the 237 batters he faced this past season, and he was actually north of 50 percent (101 strikeouts against 199 batters) at the end of July before a bit of a bumpy ride through August.

Sadly, he is all but certain to miss the entire 2024 season since he didn't have the operation until October. But hopefully the 28-year-old flamethrower will be back to his old self by the beginning of 2025, as he was rapidly staking his claim to the throne as best closer in the majors.

Career Stats: 41-55, 900.2 IP, 3.32 ERA, 3.77 FIP, 1.16 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, 19.5 bWAR

TJ Surgery Date: Oct. 6, 2023

Prior to suffering his injury, it sure seemed like Sandy Alcantara had the type of rubber arm that might somehow be immune to a torn UCL.

From the beginning of 2021 through this past Labor Day, the 2022 NL Cy Young winner had logged 619.0 innings pitched—a full 11 percent more than Aaron Nola at No. 2 on that list with 557.2 IP.

Over the course of those 93 starts, Alcantara tossed 10 complete games and pitched into the eighth inning 30 times. He made 60 quality starts (64.5 percent), including going eight full innings in what will almost certainly be his last appearance until spring 2025.

Alas, when the Marlins finally made it back to the playoffs at the end of a 162-game season for the first time in two decades, that durable ace was on shelf with forearm tightness and underwent TJ surgery less than 48 hours after Miami was eliminated by the Phillies.

Alcantara only turned 28 in September and is signed through at least 2026 (with a club option for 2027). Given his durability to this point and the fact that he'll be more than 16 months removed from surgery by the time pitchers and catchers report to spring training in 2025, it's a reasonable assumption he'll be back as Miami's ace for at least another two or three years.

It's too bad we won't get to watch him in 2024, though.

Career Stats: 84-57, 1,356.1 IP, 2.53 ERA, 2.59 FIP, 0.99 WHIP, 11.0 K/9, 44.8 bWAR

TJ Surgery Date: June 12, 2023

It's a shame Jacob deGrom hasn't been able to stay healthy over the past three seasons. He's made only 32 starts since the beginning of 2021.

In those starts, though, he has been unreal, posting a 2.03 ERA and a 0.65 WHIP with 293 strikeouts against just 23 walks (12.7 K/BB).

But maybe this second TJ surgery will be just what the 35-year-old ace needs to get back on the healthy track for an incredible finish to his career.

He's definitely on the older end of the spectrum of TJ surgery recipients. But according to the aforementioned TJ surgery database, there have been 25 pitchers who had the surgery at 35 or older and made it back to the majors, including the ageless wonder Jamie Moyer, who came back for an age-49 season.

The most noteworthy is probably Justin Verlander, who had the procedure at 37 and won the AL Cy Young at 39.

Granted, Verlander went into his surgery with a ridiculously good bill of health, making at least 30 starts in 13 of the previous 14 seasons. deGrom hasn't been anywhere near that durable and may well miss all of 2024 before making a return in 2025. But if he can give the Rangers a good run from 2025-27, maybe that $185 million contract will be worth it after all.

All statistics via Baseball Reference or FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted.