Bowl Projections 2023-24: Predictions for CFP, New Year's Six After Week 9 AP Poll
College football fans couldn't have asked for much more Saturday, and the national championship race got a little clearer as a result.
But just a little.
Ohio State prevailed over Penn State in a clash of Big Ten titans thanks to the unstoppable Marvin Harrison Jr. and a stout defense. USC's defensive woes continued as the Trojans allowed a late field-goal drive to lose to Utah. And, perhaps most surprisingly, North Carolina's dream undefeated season came to an end with a stunning home loss to 2-5 Virginia.
Even with those results, Saturday was largely defined by narrow escapes.
Washington used a late pick-six to get past Arizona State, Oklahoma survived a challenge by UCF because of a failed two-point conversion, Florida State won the fourth quarter 21-0 to overcome a deficit against Duke, Texas' defensive stand in the red zone in the final two minutes preserved a win over Houston and Alabama overcame a double-digit halftime deficit to beat Tennessee.
The new Associated Press Top 25 doesn't look as different as it would have if some of those upset bids were successful, but it does call into question where those teams stand in the College Football Playoff race.
Week 9 AP Top 25
1. Georgia
2. Michigan
3. Ohio State
4. Florida State
5. Washington
6. Oklahoma
7. Texas
8. Oregon
9. Alabama
10. Penn State
11. Oregon State
12. Ole Miss
13. Utah
14. Notre Dame
15. LSU
16. Missouri
17. North Carolina
18. Louisville
19. Air Force
20. Duke
21. Tennessee
22. Tulane
23. UCLA
24. USC
25. James Madison
Bowl Projections
College Football Playoff
Rose Bowl (January 1): No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 4 Texas
Sugar Bowl (January 1): No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 3 Florida State
New Years' Six
Cotton Bowl (December 29): Washington vs. Oklahoma
Peach Bowl (December 30): Alabama vs. Penn State
Orange Bowl (December 30): North Carolina vs. Ohio State
Fiesta Bowl (January 1): Oregon vs. Air Force
While many of the College Football Playoff debates by the end of the season often focus on the No. 4 spot, there will be an argument for the No. 1 position this year.
And Michigan is going to get the nod over Georgia even though the Bulldogs are back-to-back reigning national champions.
That is because the Wolverines will have the opportunity to pick up two of the best wins of the season down the stretch and make quite the statement to the committee. Their schedule has been the weakest among the realistic contenders so far, but they hit the road to face Penn State on Nov. 11 and finish with a showdown against rival Ohio State on Nov. 25.
Assuming Penn State defeats Indiana and Maryland before that Michigan game, the Nittany Lions will be in the top 10 and playing in front of one of the best home crowds in college football. The Buckeyes also have an excellent chance to be undefeated when they face the Wolverines, which could be a matchup of teams in the top three of the polls.
Georgia doesn't have anything on its schedule that could top Michigan winning at Penn State and over Ohio State in the final three games of the year, so the Wolverines would leapfrog the reigning champions.
That will put an undefeated Bulldogs squad at No. 2 and match them up with an undefeated Florida State team—which shouldn't be challenged in a mediocre ACC the rest of the way—in the CFP.
The No. 4 spot is where it gets tricky, as a one-loss Ohio State team would have a case with wins over Penn State and Notre Dame. Its only defeat would also be at the hands of the nation's No. 1 team in this hypothetical.
There is also Washington, but the thought here is the Huskies trip up at some point with remaining games against USC, Utah, Oregon State and Washington State before a potential Pac-12 title game rematch against Oregon.
Enter Texas, which already has a win at Alabama in its back pocket and won't be challenged by the five remaining teams on its schedule. That will give it a rematch against Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game and the opportunity to add another marquee win to its resume.
Defeating Alabama and the same Oklahoma team that gave the Longhorns their only loss would be impressive, and their conference crown that Ohio State couldn't match in this scenario would be the tiebreaker in the race for the final spot.