Buy or Sell Yankees Being All-in on Yamamoto and More Rumors From MLB GM Meetings

Major League Baseball's annual GM Meetings are happening this week, so it's little wonder that the offseason rumor mill has really begun to spin.

The question, as always, is what to make of it all.

This is where playing the ol' "Buy or Sell?" game can be useful, so let's do that with 12 whispers coming out of Scottsdale, Arizona. Some of these veer more toward speculation than anything else, but the idea remains to weigh whether what's being said will actually result in the deals they portend to foreshadow.

Let's start with seven items related to free agency and end with five related to trades.

Source: Buster Olney of ESPN

The notion that the Los Angeles Dodgers are the favorites for Shohei Ohtani perhaps only warrants a one-word response: "Duh."

Still, Olney dropped interesting nuggets about Ohtani's free agency in ESPN's predictions roundtable on Monday. He hears that Andrew Friedman, the Dodgers' president of baseball operations, is "obsessed" with Ohtani and that one of the two-way superstar's friends believes he "already knows where he wants to sign."

Still another interesting nugget came on Tuesday from Jon Heyman of the New York Post, who linked the Dodgers' decision to not make J.D. Martinez a qualifying offer to the Ohtani sweepstakes:

Perhaps the real question is if anyone will have any right to be shocked if the Dodgers don't sign Ohtani, but the chances of that happening are not to be mistaken for zero. Notably, the Texas Rangers and San Francisco Giants are also among the reported favorites for Ohtani.

What those teams don't have that the Dodgers do, however, is a nearly $100 million gap between their 2023 payroll and their projected 2024 spending. They could sign Ohtani for $50 million per year and still have room for other moves.

Verdict: Buy

Source: Buster Olney of ESPN

Elsewhere in ESPN's free-agent predictions piece, Olney had an interesting observation of New York Yankees general manager Brian Cashman's usual approach to adversity.

"You might have heard that they had a down year in 2023," he wrote, "and if you look back at GM Brian Cashman's history, whenever he gets into trouble, he has the same reflex—he grabs for pitching, perhaps believing it provides the best and quickest jolt."

Olney proceeded to go even further in the "Baseball Tonight" podcast, saying he expects the Yankees to "blow away the field" for Japanese ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

It's out there that the Yankees are high on Yamamoto, who's only 25 years old and who boasts a sub-2.00 ERA in seven seasons in Japan. But so are clubs like the Dodgers and New York Mets, who Mark Feinsand of MLB.com says are "enamored" with the right-hander.

The Yankees otherwise have greater needs in their offense and in their outfield, specifically. Since signing Yamamoto could cost as much as $30 million per year, that would be $30 million per year less that the Yankees would have for hitters at a time when they're already slated to go over the luxury tax in 2024. As such, skepticism is in order here.

Verdict: Sell

Sources: Jon Heyman of the New York Post and Jon Morosi of MLB.com

If it is indeed on hitters that the Yankees focus their efforts this winter, of particular interest could be a new center fielder and a new third baseman.

The former is Cody Bellinger, with whom Heyman says the Yankees have already "touched base." The latter is Matt Chapman, on whom Morosi says the Yankees are to be watched "very carefully."

That the Yankees are a prime fit for Bellinger doesn't require much argumentation. Their offense needs left-handed hitting and as much contact-hitting and speed as it can get. Bellinger offers these things and is an ace defender, to boot.

Chapman, a four-time Gold Glove winner, is also an ace defender, yet his right-handed bat is more of a question mark. He's been only eight percent better than average since 2021. And whereas Bellinger was in the 87th percentile for strikeout rate in 2023, Chapman was in the 16th.

So even if the Yankees could potentially afford both players, they should only want one of them.

Verdict: Buy on Bellinger, Sell on Chapman

Source: Jon Morosi of MLB.com

As to the non-Yamamoto members of this winter's stacked class of free agent starting pitchers, Morosi hinted at Sonny Gray potentially taking Aaron Nola's place in Philadelphia:

It's not a given that Nola will leave the Phillies. You can take it straight from owner John Middleton that the team is going to make a "really concerted effort to re-sign" the ace righty.

It would cost them, however. Though the safe bet is that Nola will command Kevin Gausman money, MLB Trade Rumors pegs him for as high as a $150 million deal.

Since Gray is Nola's elder by about three and a half years, he may only be in the market for half as much money. That could be advantageous for the Phillies at a time when their payroll is already on the bloated side. And because Gray and Nola are generally similar pitchers, there might not even be a step down in production.

Granted, Gray's age and less-than-spotless injury history raise doubts as to how much longer he can maintain as a top-end starter. But if ever there was a team who can throw caution into such winds, it's one that's as firmly in win-now territory as the Phillies.

Verdict: Buy

Source: Jon Morosi of MLB.com

Elsewhere on the market for free agent starters, Morosi reports that Boston Red Sox officials and Jordan Montgomery's representatives have made contact:

It was inevitable that something like this would come out of Boston, as Craig Breslow has made little secret of his desire to improve what was a dreadful starting rotation in 2023.

"I think we need to be open-minded," the Red Sox's new chief baseball officer said on Tuesday. "You know, like I said last week, starting pitching is certainly a priority for us, but to kind of try and forecast an exact number or anything kind of more specific than that probably doesn't make sense."

Montgomery has been a man on a mission ever since the Yankees traded him ahead of the 2022 deadline. He's put up a 3.17 ERA in 43 regular season starts, and he's fresh off a 2.90 ERA in six playoff outings for the World Series champion Texas Rangers.

Whether the Red Sox would be better off signing Nola, Gray or Blake Snell is a fair question, but Montgomery probably presents the best bang/buck equation. He's a darn good pitcher, and his ineligibility for a qualifying offer means he'd only cost Boston money and not draft picks.

Verdict: Buy

Source: Bob Nightengale of USA Today

Nightengale's preview of the GM Meetings went live on Sunday. That's a day before the meetings began in earnest if you want to be technical, and two days before they actually began if you want to get really technical.

Still, the Toronto Blue Jays having "strong interest" in Bellinger is too good to pass up.

With free agency having claimed Chapman, Brandon Belt, Kevin Kiermaier and Whit Merrifield, the Blue Jays need hitters. According to Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet, the exact number for how many they're looking at add is between one and four:

Bellinger, who hit .307 with 26 home runs and 20 stolen bases in 2023, is the best non-Ohtani hitter on the open market. He certainly fits the Jays on paper, as he could share center field with Daulton Varsho and first base with Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

But does the money work? The erstwhile Rookie of the Year and MVP should easily clear nine figures, which seems like a tall order for Toronto while its 2024 payroll is projected at just $9 million less than what it spent in 2023. Hanging in the bidding could be tough.

Verdict: Sell

Source: Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet

Joey Votto and the Blue Jays, on the other hand, would be an obvious fit for each other even if the club wasn't known to have actual interest in him, as Nicholson-Smith reports:

Now, Votto is not Bellinger.

Beyond being 12 years older than Bellinger, Votto has spent much of the last two years injured and hitting just .204 when he's been able to play. If Toronto were to sign the future Hall of Famer, it would be a long-shot upside play.

But if ever there was an appropriate situation for one of those, it's this one. Votto is a Toronto native who openly loves the Rogers Centre, so signing him would be nothing if not a good story to help sell tickets. Otherwise, he'd be the left-handed-hitting first baseman/designated hitter that Belt was for Toronto this season.

The Jays signing Votto would be akin to the St. Louis Cardinals signing Albert Pujols in 2022, and perhaps no more expensive either. There wouldn't be much for either party to lose in such a partnership.

Verdict: Buy

Source: Bob Nightengale of USA Today

Another nugget from Nightengale is that the Chicago White Sox are "telling teams they will listen to offers" for ace righty Dylan Cease.

This tracks with what new White Sox GM Chris Getz said Tuesday about his team having "no untouchables." Even star center fielder Luis Robert Jr. could be available if that's the case, though Cease is surely the more practical trade chip.

The 27-year-old is only under club control through 2025, and it's highly unlikely the White Sox will contend by then given that they only just blew it all up. As evidenced by a 2022 campaign that saw him finish second in the American League Cy Young Award voting, Cease is capable of pitching like a No. 1.

Of course, that's not how he pitched as he was putting up a 4.58 ERA in 2023. That's no help to his value, which may be further limited by all the other options available. In addition to all the starters available in free agency, Corbin Burnes, Tyler Glasnow and Shane Bieber could likewise hit the trade market.

Ultimately, the smart play for the White Sox may be to hold on to Cease and see if he can reestablish his value ahead of the 2024 trade deadline.

Verdict: Sell

Source: Jon Morosi of MLB.com

Meanwhile in the position player corner of the trade market, Morosi reported Tuesday that Jonathan India has many fans at the GM Meetings:

The Cincinnati Reds' apparent reluctance to trade the 26-year-old nonetheless makes sense on two levels.

For one, he's under club control through 2026. For two, they'd perhaps be selling low if they were to deal him now. Whereas India was the National League Rookie of the Year in 2021, he's battled injuries and posted middling results (i.e., a .727 OPS) over the last two seasons.

Yet it's also true that the Reds badly need help for a starting rotation that posted a 5.43 ERA in 2023 and that India is part of a surplus of young infielders. Even if they trade him, they'll still have Matt McLain to play at second base.

Factoring in that the open market is thin on middle infielders, even India's last two seasons might only put so much of a damper on his value. And since the Reds aren't the type to shop at the high end of the free agent pitching market, all the ingredients for a deal are there.

Verdict: Buy

Source: Scott Boras

Despite many whispers to the contrary, you can take it from Boras that his client, Juan Soto, is in the San Diego Padres' plans for 2024:

Regarding the aforementioned whispers, a couple recent ones came from Nightengale and Morosi, who said on MLB Network on Monday that there's "at least a 50/50 chance" of Soto getting dealt ahead of what will be his last season before free agency.

There probably wouldn't be any such whispers if the Padres weren't known to be looking to cut payroll by roughly $50 million, but it must be said that they don't need to trade Soto to accomplish as much. Their projected payroll for 2024 is $57 million lower than where they ended 2023.

What nonetheless gives one pause that the Padres are anything but good to go for next season. Their lineup is in solid shape, but free agency has blasted a gaping hole through their pitching depth.

Since that's not a problem they can simply leave alone, they may have no choice but to make some cuts if they want to add pitching and meet their payroll goal. And to this end, a Soto trade would mean a cut of more than $30 million.

Verdict: Sell

Source: Jon Morosi of MLB.com

Just as Morosi put the chances of a Soto trade around 50/50, that's where he also put the chances of a Pete Alonso trade in the same segment.

There have been times in recent weeks when the chances of a deal seemed even higher, including when there was all sorts of Chicago Cubs-related smoke in mid-October.

Even then, though, new Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns was on record with his expectations that Alonso would still be at first base for the team come Opening Day of 2024. And while he's not known for such things, Boras is clearly willing to entertain a contract extension for his client:

Like Soto, Alonso is ticketed for free agency after 2024. Unlike Soto, however, he doesn't play for a team that's facing financial difficulties. Mets owner Steve Cohen's pockets go plenty deep, which is to say nothing of all the payroll the team slashed over the summer.

Stearns has generally sung a tune of wanting to win next season, including this week as he's spoken of wanting to add pitching. An Alonso trade might thus be wishful thinking...at least until the middle of next summer if the Mets are out of it again.

Verdict: Sell

Source: Jon Morosi of MLB.com

Going once more to the Morosi well, he ended his segment on Monday with remarks about the chances of a Mike Trout trade being "substantially lower" than ones involving Soto or Alonso.

The prospect of a Trout trade first popped up in September, when Nightengale reported the Los Angeles Angels would be open to moving the three-time AL MVP if he "indicates to them that he wants out."

It wasn't long before Trout himself threw cold water on the idea. He said in late September that his plan going into the offseason involved "clearing my mind and getting ready for spring and wearing an Angels uniform in spring."

Even if Trout and the Angels were willing to move on from each other, trading him would still be a monumental challenge. He's undoubtedly a future Hall of Famer, but he's also played in less than half the Angels' games over the last three seasons and he's owed $260 million through 2030.

What could alter the equation is if Trout changes his mind about wanting to stay in Anaheim, which one would think might happen if Ohtani signs elsewhere. But this is purely speculative and a reach besides. His commitment to the Angels just seems like the real deal.

Verdict: Buy

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.