MLB Playoffs 2023: ALCS, NLCS Picks and Predictions

So long, Wild Card Series and Division Series. Hello, Championship Series.

It's indeed on to the final four in the 2023 Major League Baseball playoffs, with the Texas Rangers and Houston Astros ready to square off for the American League pennant and the Arizona Diamondbacks and Philadelphia Phillies ready to do the same for the National League pennant.

What happens next is up to the baseball gods, but nobody has ever been harmed by any attempts to predict what they have in store.

Ahead, we'll run through how all four parties got to the Championship Series and summarize the state of their offenses and pitching staffs. Then, we'll conclude by looking at the latest odds from DraftKings and making picks for the ALCS and NLCS.

But first, a quick look at the schedules for both series.

American League Championship Series

• Game 1: Sunday, Oct. 15 at 8:15 p.m. ET in Houston
• Game 2: Monday, Oct. 16 at 4:30 p.m. ET in Houston
• Game 3: Wednesday, Oct. 18 at 8:00 p.m. ET in Texas
• Game 4: Thursday, Oct. 19 at 8:00 p.m. ET in Texas
• *Game 5: Friday, Oct. 20 at 5:00 p.m. ET in Texas
• *Game 6: Sunday, Oct. 22 at 8:00 p.m. ET in Houston
• *Game 7: Monday, Oct. 23 at 8:00 p.m. ET in Houston

*If necessary

National League Championship Series

• Game 1: Monday, Oct. 16 at 8:00 p.m. ET in Philadelphia
• Game 2: Tuesday, Oct. 17 at 8:00 p.m. ET in Philadelphia
• Game 3: Thursday, Oct. 19 at 5:00 p.m. ET in Arizona
• Game 4: Friday, Oct. 20 at 8:00 p.m. ET in Arizona
• *Game 5: Saturday, Oct. 21 at 8:00 p.m. ET in Arizona
• *Game 6: Monday, Oct. 23 at 5:00 p.m. ET in Philadelphia
• *Game 7: Tuesday, Oct. 24 at 8:00 p.m. ET in Philadelphia

*If necessary

How the Rangers Got Here

Regular Season: 90-72, 2nd in AL West

Postseason: 2-0 vs. Tampa Bay Rays, 3-0 vs. Baltimore Orioles

The regular season spanned 185 days and the Rangers held at least a share of first place in the AL West for 160 of them. That's 86 percent, which is None Too Shabby.

Then came something resembling a collapse. The Rangers spent the final weeks of the campaign dabbling in every kind of streakiness, but mostly the bad kind as they went 18-24 after Aug. 16. They couldn't even hold the 2.0-game lead they had going into their final series.

You'd never know the collapse happened from how the Rangers treated the Rays and Orioles. Their sweeps of those two clubs were both routs, with the Rangers scoring 20 more runs than they allowed in the five games.

How the Astros Got Here

Regular Season: 90-72, 1st in AL West

Postseason: 3-1 vs. Minnesota Twins

Though the Astros finished the regular season with the exact same record as the Rangers, it was by way of their dominance in head-to-head matchups that they claimed the AL West crown and the AL's No. 2 seed. They won nine of 13 against the Rangers.

The highlight was a three-game sweep at Globe Life Field in September in which the Astros outscored the Rangers 39-10, yet they didn't go into the playoffs in much better shape despite that. As the Rangers struggled after Aug. 16, the Astros went just 21-20.

They nonetheless didn't have too much trouble against the Twins in the Division Series, outscoring them 20-13. And now the Astros find themselves in familiar territory, as this is their seventh trip to the American League Championship Series in as many years.

Who Hit Better in the Regular Season?

From an overall perspective, this is a no-brainer. The Rangers led not only the Astros, but all American League teams in runs, home runs, average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS this season.

In the second half of the year, however, it was the Astros who led the Junior Circuit in every one of those categories save for home runs, for which they ranked second. In other words, they were the hotter team coming into October.

Who's Hitting Better in the Postseason?

Ah, but it's now the Rangers back on top. At least by way of OPS and runs per game, anyway:

• Rangers: .865 OPS, 6.4 R/G
• Astros: .818 OPS, 5.0 R/G

There are nonetheless defenses of Houston's postseason offense, including that it was up against MLB's most strikeout-happy pitching staff. And even though the Astros have played one fewer game, they have 10 postseason homers to Texas' seven.

Best Hitter Matchup: Corey Seager vs. Yordan Álvarez

There is no wrong answer to who's the better hitter between these two. Seager and Álvarez had the exact same OPS+ (170) and were separated by only two home runs (33 to 31) in the regular season.

Their recent playoff track records are likewise nearly identical. In his last 35 playoff games, Seager has a 1.032 OPS and 11 homers. In his last 36, Álvarez has a 1.023 OPS and 10 homers.

Rangers X-Factor: Marcus Semien

Semien led the AL in hits and runs during the regular season, but he's thus far hit only .174 in the playoffs. Having him get hot again at the top of the lineup would be huge.

Astros X-Factor: Kyle Tucker

Tucker also had a big regular season, homering 29 times and driving in an AL-high 112 runs. Yet he was overmatched against the Twins, going 2-for-14 with six punchouts.

Who Pitched Better in the Regular Season?

Astros hurlers started the year better than they ended it, but they still salvaged the AL's sixth-best ERA at 3.94. And even in the worst of times in July, their ERA didn't get above 4.65.

By contrast, the Rangers posted ERAs north of 5.00 in both July and September in the process of racking up a 4.28 ERA for the season. Trouble frequently emanated from their bullpen, which ultimately blew more saves (33) than it converted (30).

Who's Pitching Better in the Postseason?

The tables? They've turned, alright. The Astros wrapped up the Division Series with a plenty respectable 3.25 ERA, but the Rangers' ERA for their two series is all the way down at 2.20.

It's helped that the bullpen has suddenly become an asset for manager Bruce Bochy, which is in no small part thanks to suddenly red-hot closer José Leclerc. Dating back to the regular season, he's allowed one run in his last 13 appearances.

Best Pitcher Matchup: Nathan Eovaldi vs. Justin Verlander

This matchup would have looked lopsided in favor of Houston in September, wherein Eovaldi was getting rocked for 9.30 ERA after returning from a lengthy injury absence. But he's since added to a notable postseason track record by allowing one run over 13.2 innings.

Verlander has had ups and downs since returning to Houston in August, but the three-time Cy Young Award winner's six shutout innings in Game 1 of the Division Series served as a reminder that it's really only the World Series that gives him trouble in October.

Rangers X-Factor: Max Scherzer

Speaking of three-time Cy Young Award winners, the Rangers may be about to get one back. Scherzer says he's recovered from a teres major strain that's kept him out since Sep. 12.

Astros X-Factor: Framber Valdez

Valdez is nominally a co-ace alongside Verlander, but it's been a while since he was consistently looking the part. He finished the regular season with a 4.66 ERA over his last 14 starts and then allowed five runs in 4.1 innings in a loss in Game 2 of the Division Series.

The Odds: Astros -140, Rangers +120

In theory, one thing that should help the Astros live up to being the favorite for this series is that they'll at least start with home-field advantage at Minute Maid Park.

In reality, maybe not so much. The Astros only went 39-42 at home this year, and it was in Houston that the Twins earned their lone win of the Division Series.

So perhaps the real question is: Will it be the Astros' experience or the Rangers' sheer upside that decides this series?

Houston's experience in big games definitely came through in the season series between these two teams, but the Rangers' lineup goes deeper and they won't have any weak links in their rotation if both Scherzer and Jon Gray are able to retake their places alongside Eovaldi and Jordan Montgomery.

Like the Diamondbacks and Phillies did in the Division Series, maybe it's the Rangers' turn to show that head-to-head records from the regular season are now meaningless.

Prediction: Rangers in 6

How the Diamondbacks Got Here

Regular Season: 84-78, 2nd in NL West

Postseason: 2-0 vs. Milwaukee Brewers, 3-0 vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Like the Rangers, the Diamondbacks held at least a share of first place in the NL West for a good chunk of the season. We're talking 66 days and as late as July 9.

It was around then that the D-backs went on a stretch that made the Rangers' collapse look like a proverbial day at the park. They lost 25 out of 32 through Aug. 11 to lower their odds of making the playoffs to 13.4 percent.

It took a 27-19 finish for Arizona to sneak into the playoffs, and even that ended with a four-game skid. If anyone says they had the D-backs pulling off two comeback wins against Milwaukee and never even trailing in a sweep of the Dodgers, their honesty is suspect.

How the Phillies Got Here

Regular Season: 90-72, 2nd in NL East

Postseason: 2-0 vs. Miami Marlins, 3-1 vs. Atlanta

Of the four teams still standing, the Phillies are the only one that never spent a day in first place during the regular season. Heck, it wasn't even until July 25 that they took up a permanent residence in second in the NL East.

By then, though, the Phillies were well into a 65-42 run that made them the fourth-best team in the entire league after June 1. When coupled with their status as the reigning National League champs, there was never any doubt that they were dangerous.

So if anyone says they had the Phillies outclassing the Marlins and coming an Austin Riley home run away from sweeping Atlanta, that person's honesty is probably just fine, thank you.

Who Hit Better in the Regular Season?

The Diamondbacks were an elite offensive team this year in at least one department, and that was baserunning. They had as many stolen bases (166) as they did home runs and they blew all other teams out of the water in Baserunning Runs.

Yet the Phillies scored more runs, hit more homers and had higher marks for average, on-base and slugging. This is even though their offense didn't really get going until Trea Turner did on Aug. 5, after which the Phillies ranked second in runs and first in home runs.

Who's Hitting Better in the Postseason?

Honestly, take your pick:

• Diamondbacks: .877 OPS, 6.0 R/G
• Phillies: .892 OPS, 5.2 R/G

Perhaps the most surprising development of the postseason has been Arizona's sudden propensity for hitting the long ball. After hitting 54 fewer home runs (i.e., one Matt Olson's worth) than the Phillies during the regular season, both clubs have hit 13 in October.

Best Hitter Matchup: Corbin Carroll vs. Bryce Harper

In addition to a two-time National League MVP, Harper is in the process of becoming a Phillies postseason legend. His 23 playoff games with them have yielded a 1.216 OPS and nine home runs.

There is a case, though, that Carroll represents the more dynamic threat. After becoming the first rookie to ever top 25 homers and 50 steals in the regular season, all he's done in his first five playoff games is hit .412 with a pair of homers and a pair of steals.

Diamondbacks X-Factor: Gabriel Moreno

Moreno hit seven homers in 111 games in the regular season, so of course he leads the Diamondbacks with three so far in the playoffs. Yet the poor guy has also been taking a beating, leaving two separate games after getting hit by a backswing and a foul ball.

Phillies X-Factor: Kyle Schwarber

In the wake of his 47-homer binge in the regular season, Schwarber is just 4-for-25 in the playoffs. But if this feels familiar, just remember that he was also cold in the first two rounds last year before ripping off a 1.318 OPS and six homers over his next 11 games.

Who Pitched Better in the Regular Season?

The Phillies had their issues early on, but they eventually got their act together and pitched to a 3.66 ERA over their final 105 games. By rWAR, their starters and relievers ranked fourth and third out of all MLB teams, respectively.

The Diamondbacks, meanwhile, finished below the National League average in posting a 4.47 ERA. Depth was a persistent issue, particularly in a starting rotation that arguably still doesn't have a solid No. 3 starter behind Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly.

Who's Pitching Better in the Postseason?

Once again, the tables have turned. Though the Phillies' 1.53 ERA is the best of any team so far in the playoffs, the Diamondbacks aren't far behind with a 2.20 ERA.

The Phillies can boast of having shut down one of the mightiest offenses in history in the Division Series, but even they might be in envy of Arizona's bullpen these days. It's handled 20.1 innings and allowed only four earned runs while striking out 23 batters.

Best Pitcher Matchup: Zac Gallen vs. Zack Wheeler

Wheeler was the best pitcher in baseball this year. That's at least according to fWAR, and nobody can say he hasn't looked the part in punching out 18 batters against only one walk and three earned runs allowed in his two playoff starts.

You only have to go down to the No. 6 spot to find Gallen on that fWAR list, and his own introduction to the playoffs has been impressive. He pitched into the sixth inning in both of his starts and has just four runs in 11.1 innings on his record.

Diamondbacks X-Factor: Brandon Pfaadt

Then again, maybe Arizona does have a solid No. 3 starter. One could have made that case for Pfaadt after he made a strong return in July from a stint in the minors, and even more so now that he's coming off a short, yet dominant outing in the clincher against the Dodgers.

Phillies X-Factor: Craig Kimbrel

Kimbrel may rank eighth all-time with 417 saves, but a lot of breath gets held when he's on the mound in a playoff game. To wit, he's struck out exactly one of the 22 batters he's faced in his last six playoff outings.

The Odds: Phillies -170, Diamondbacks +145

In case anyone was wondering when they were finally going to come across the D word, this is the series where defense could really make a difference.

Whereas there wasn't much difference between the Rangers and Astros in the regular season, the Diamondbacks racked up 32 more Outs Above Average than the Phillies. The Snakes are the elite defensive team left standing.

And yet, there is that feeling. That feeling that the Diamondbacks are up against a challenge unlike any they've met so far in these playoffs.

In getting past the Brewers and Dodgers, the D-backs beat one team that couldn't hit a lick and another whose starting pitching was a ticking time bomb well before three starters combined to allow 13 runs and get just 14 outs in the Division Series.

If the Phillies have a soft underbelly right now, it's observable only via microscope. And unlike the Astros at Minute Maid Park, that the Phillies are 53-32 overall at home this year doesn't leave much doubt about whether their home-field advantage is real.

Prediction: Phillies in 5

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.