NFL Picks Week 10: Early Odds to Exploit for Best Over/Under Score Bets

We've reached the halfway point in the 2023 NFL season, and the playoff race is tightening. In the AFC North, for example, every team is over .500 by at least two games.

Week 10 will feature one pivotal AFC North showdown, as the 5-3 Cleveland Browns are set to visit the 7-2 Baltimore Ravens. It's a game that could go a long way toward determining the division, in large part because Baltimore already won the first head-to-head meeting.

While it's hard to predict who will come out on top in the Browns-Ravens battle, we can guess what sort of game it's going to be. Below, we'll examine that contest and a couple of others that we like for Week 10 over/under wagers.

Check the latest lines at DraftKings.

The Ravens walloped the Browns in their first meeting, winning a 28-3 contest and perhaps establishing Baltimore as the best defensive team in the division. It's worth noting, though, that Cleveland started rookie quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson on short notice, and the Ravens were helped tremendously by turnovers and short fields.

While Cleveland's defense has appeared vulnerable at times this season, it's still loaded with talented players like Myles Garrett, Denzel Ward and Dalvin Tomlinson. Deshaun Watson might not be a top-tier quarterback, but he should be able to do a better job of protecting the ball than Thompson-Robinson did.

Watson made his return from a shoulder injury in Week 9 and helped Cleveland earn a 27-0 victory over the Arizona Cardinals.

"He made some phenomenal throws out there," Browns receiver Amari Cooper told CBS Sports' Aditi Kinkhabwala after the game (h/t J.R. DeGroote of Heavy).

Don't, however, expect Cleveland to rack up the points against Baltimore's top-ranked scoring defense—and the loss of left tackle Jedrick Wills Jr. certainly won't help. This has the makings of a low-scoring defensive battle, regardless of which team comes out on top.

Sunday's game between the Minnesota Vikings and New Orleans Saints should be a little less defensively driven, even if both squads are sound on that side of the ball.

New Orleans ranks seventh in points allowed, while Minnesota ranks 17th—but the Vikings have shown growth under defensive coordinator Brian Flores. However, neither team has a true shut-down unit.

The Vikings may not experience a massive offensive drop-off even after losing Kirk Cousins to a torn Achilles. Joshua Dobbs took over against the Atlanta Falcons last week—after Jaren Hall suffered a concussion—and helped lead Minnesota to 31 points.

Minnesota has already announced that Dobbs will start against the Saints.

While it's taken for Derek Carr to gel with the New Orleans offense, we've seen growth over the past two-plus weeks. The Saints scored 18 points in the second half of their loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars and have averaged 31 points over their last two games.

Even with Justin Jefferson unlikely to return for Minnesota this week, there are enough playmakers—working with a pair of solid quarterbacks—for this one to hit the over.

Given the matchup, the points line for the Tennessee Titans and Tampa Bay Buccaneers is extremely low.

Tennessee will lean on rookie quarterback Will Levis, but the 24-year-old has done a tremendous job of sparking the passing attack. In his two starts, Levis has thrown for 500 yards with four touchdowns and just one interception.

The Buccaneers, meanwhile, have a suspect secondary that just gave up a rookie-record 470 yards and five touchdowns to C.J. Stroud. The Bucs rank 10th in yards per rush allowed, so we should see the Titans lean into Levis' arm in this one.

While Tampa's passing game hasn't been top-notch behind Baker Mayfield, it's been perfectly functional. Tennessee's defense is stronger against the run than the pass, and Tampa is offensively slanted toward the pass anyway.

Both defenses rank in the top half of the league in points allowed, but this game is set up to feature a fair amount of aerial back-and-forth. Mayfield versus Levis might be the most fun quarterback matchup that casual fans aren't watching this weekend. The over feels like the most likely outcome.

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