Top 10 Landing Spots for SP Lucas Giolito in MLB Free Agency

Lucas Giolito hasn't exactly come into his first free-agency experience with momentum.

After earning votes for the American League Cy Young Award in 2019, 2020 and 2021, the right-hander devolved into a below-average pitcher in 2022 and 2023. In 63 starts, he yielded a 4.89 ERA and a MLB-high-tying 65 home runs.

The good news is that the 29-year-old is neither too old nor too far removed from his best work for anyone to take it for granted that his prime is finished. As such, he's an intriguing option even amid a free-agent market that's saturated with starters.

So, let's go deep in discussing Giolito's value and assessing his best potential landing spots.

In case anyone's thinking it: Yes, it is hard to sugarcoat how far Giolito has fallen.

He was an elite pitcher during that three-year run between 2019 and 2021, racking up a 3.47 ERA with a strikeout rate of 11.1 per nine innings. He specifically reached a pinnacle with a 13-strikeout no-hitter on Aug. 25, 2020.

Pretty much everything has gone wrong for Giolito since then. His average fastball is notably down about 1 mph from its peak, and both his changeup and his slider are more hittable than they used to be.

It's worth remembering, though, that Giolito started 2023 off strong with a 3.79 ERA through 21 starts for the Chicago White Sox. It was only after he was traded to the Los Angeles Angels and later ended up with the Cleveland Guardians that his season truly collapsed to the tune of a 6.96 ERA over 12 starts.

In addition to a few tweaks, some stability might be all Giolito needs to get back on track. Since he ranks eighth among all pitchers with 947 innings since 2018, he figures to be a reliable innings-eater in 2024 if nothing else.

Giolito's next contract will almost certainly be of the short-term variety, with MLB Trade Rumors ($44 million) and FanGraphs ($30 million) both forecasting a two-year deal. If he gets an opt-out, whatever he signs could prove to be just a one-year commitment.

A pitcher like this is hypothetically an option for contenders and not-quite-contenders alike. After first touching on some honorable mentions, let's get to breaking down Giolito's best fits.

Note: All starting pitching WAR is courtesy of Baseball Reference, with 2024 projected starting rotations courtesy of RosterResource via FanGraphs.

Atlanta

It'll be easier to imagine Giolito as a fit for Atlanta once they follow through on their desire to move newly acquired left-hander Marco Gonzales. Until then, he and free agent signee Reynaldo López have solidified the club's rotation depth.

Los Angeles Angels

The Angels need help in their rotation, but it's hard to see general manager Perry Minasian trying again on Giolito after this year's trade went so south so fast.

St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals' main goal for the winter was to acquire three starting pitchers, and they have done just that by signing Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn. One would think the book is therefore closed on that project.

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 5.0 (26th)

2024 Projected Rotation: RHP Hunter Greene, RHP Graham Ashcraft, LHP Andrew Abbott, RHP Nick Martinez, LHP Nick Lodolo

Only two teams did worse than the 5.43 ERA posted by Reds starters this past season, and it's less than a sure thing that their new addition will help solve the problem in 2024.

That's Martinez, who signed a two-year, $26 million deal with the Reds on Friday. He did have a 2.32 ERA as a starter for the San Diego Padres this year, but that was in just 42.2 innings spread out over nine starts. He's mostly pitched in relief over the last two seasons, tallying 91 appearances with 21 games finished.

Giolito would be a more solid addition to Cincinnati's rotation, particularly in the sense that it could use his workhorse skills. None of the team's incumbents reached even 150 innings this season.

The catch is that Giolito and Great American Ball Park are a terrible fit for one another. He ranked fourth among qualified starters in fly ball percentage this year, so pitching half the time at the most home run-friendly park in the majors wouldn't figure to benefit him.

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 10.4 (10th)

2024 Projected Rotation: LHP Chris Sale, RHP Nick Pivetta, RHP Brayan Bello, RHP Kutter Crawford, RHP Tanner Houck

Though Red Sox starters somehow snuck into the top 10 of MLB in rWAR this year, they were notably prone to short outings.

All told, Boston starters averaged only 4.8 innings per start and placed fourth from the bottom of MLB with a total of 774.1 innings. There's probably room for growth with Bello, but Sale is well past his workhorse prime, and Pivetta, Crawford and Houck are arguably better suited for relief work.

Giolito, who's averaged 5.7 innings per start for his career, is a fit for Boston to that extent. And while Fenway Park is generally a good run-scoring environment, it's basically been neutral as a home run haven over the last three years.

But shouldn't the Red Sox have their sights set higher than Giolito? After all, their rotation wasn't just prone to short outings in 2023. It was also generally ineffective in pitching to a 4.68 ERA. The best cure is an actual ace, not a guy who might be one again.

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 6.9 (23rd)

2024 Projected Rotation: RHP Walker Buehler, RHP Bobby Miller, RHP Ryan Pepiot, LHP Ryan Yarbrough, RHP Emmet Sheehan

If Giolito to the Dodgers sounds like a familiar concept, that's because they were reportedly eyeing him on the summer trade market before the Angels beat them to the punch:

The Dodgers are reportedly interested in Giolito all over again, as well they should be. Though Buehler will be a welcome sight atop the rotation when he returns from Tommy John surgery, it's otherwise looking mighty thin sans Lynn and Clayton Kershaw.

Giolito himself has reasons to be interested in the Dodgers, and not just because they're his hometown team. They're known to have a knack for fixing broken pitchers, with recent success stories that include Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney.

Like the Red Sox, though, the Dodgers are better off putting their focus on an actual ace rather than a reclamation project. And this is to say nothing of whether Dodger Stadium, which is more home run-friendly than you might think, is the best place for Giolito.

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 12.3 (5th)

2024 Projected Rotation: RHP Joe Musgrove, RHP Yu Darvish, RHP Matt Waldron, RHP Pedro Avila, LHP Jay Groome

Starting pitching was the major strength of this year's disappointing team, but things are looking grim for the Padres in 2024.

With Martinez already gone and Blake Snell, Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo currently afloat on the free-agent waters, a huge amount of depth is missing from San Diego's rotation. It shows in FanGraphs' projections for next year, which have Padres starters ranking sixth from the bottom of MLB in WAR.

Even the 2022-23 version of Giolito would be a step up for the Padres in this regard. And unlike in Boston or Los Angeles, he wouldn't need to be the guy in San Diego. Provided they recover fully from shoulder and elbow injuries, respectively, that's a job for Musgrove and/or Darvish.

The hang-up here is a financial one. At least until a trade takes Juan Soto's projected $33 million salary off the books, the Padres may be too close to their $200 million payroll target to afford Giolito.

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 10.0 (T-11th)

2024 Projected Rotation: RHP Logan Webb, RHP Anthony DeSclafani, RHP Ross Stripling, LHP Kyle Harrison, RHP Keaton Winn

Oracle Park, on the other hand, is one of the best home parks Giolito could ask for.

The park ranked 27th out of MLB's 30 venues in yielding only 163 home runs this season, and that wasn't all because of the home team's punchless offense. Fly balls generally underperformed their expected slugging percentage there, ultimately helping the park maintain its reputation as a place where power goes to die.

Meanwhile, if the Giants didn't already need a starter before, they sure do now following Alex Cobb's hip surgery. Because carrying the rotation is Webb's job, there'd be less pressure on Giolito to do so than there would be in Boston or even Los Angeles.

Still, the Giants are not unlike the Red Sox and Dodgers in that they should aim higher in any pursuit of rotation upgrades. And those aren't even the club's primary need, as said punchless offense badly needs at least one reliable slugger.

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 8.0 (20th)

2024 Projected Rotation: LHP Justin Steele, RHP Jameson Taillon, RHP Kyle Hendricks, LHP Jordan Wicks, RHP Javier Assad

The Cubs wouldn't need another starter if Marcus Stroman hadn't opted out of his contract, but, well, he did.

To this end, the Cubs might be able to sign Giolito for less than the $21 million they were slated to pay Stroman in 2024. And at least on paper, he'd fit nicely as a No. 2 behind Steele or a No. 3 behind Taillon.

From Giolito's perspective, the Cubs may have a certain appeal because of how they oversaw the most successful reclamation project of 2023. That was Cody Bellinger, who went from being non-tendered by the Dodgers to being in the market for a nine-figure deal after returning to his star-caliber form (or something like it, anyway) of previous seasons.

Yet Giolito, who mostly serves fly balls, would also be an odd replacement for Stroman, who mostly serves ground balls. Not just conceptually either, as Wrigley Field leans power-friendly and the Cubs' defense is better on the infield than it is in the outfield.

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 12.0 (6th)

2024 Projected Rotation: RHP Kodai Senga, LHP José Quintana, RHP Luis Severino, RHP Tylor Megill, LHP Joey Lucchesi

Though the Mets enjoyed top-tier starting pitching in 2023 even after they traded Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer at the deadline, adding pitching is nonetheless a priority for their winter.

The Mets have already made one big add in this respect, signing Severino to a one-year deal worth $13 million. He's a reclamation project in his own right after a disastrous 2023 season, but one with legit upside associated with his live-wire right arm.

A subsequent move for Giolito would arguably be one reclamation project too many, but only if one takes it for granted that the Mets are all-in for 2024. They more so seem partly in, so neither Giolito flopping nor Giolito turning into trade bait would be terrible a outcome.

Of course, the threat of becoming trade bait again isn't an ideal scenario for Giolito after what he went through this year. He thus might want to steer clear of the Mets even if Citi Field isn't the kind of launching pad that he needs to be mindful of.

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 8.5 (19th)

2024 Projected Rotation: LHP Tarik Skubal, RHP Kenta Maeda, RHP Matt Manning, RHP Reese Olson, RHP Casey Mize

Giolito knows Comerica Park well from all his years pitching in the AL Central, so he should know better than most that it's plenty forgiving for fly ball pitchers.

Indeed, there might not be a more forgiving park in this regard. It rates as the worst home run haven of MLB's 30 stadiums for the last three seasons. And for a right-hander like Giolito, it's relevant that it's especially cruel to left-handed sluggers.

As to whether the Tigers are buying, the answer sure seems to be yes. They've already signed Maeda to a two-year, $24 million deal, and president of baseball operations Scott Harris said the club would still pursue additional starters.

The risk for Giolito, however, would be that he wouldn't have any guarantees that he wouldn't become trade bait all over again in 2024. The Tigers are trending toward being a contender again, but whether they're there yet after an 84-loss season is debatable.

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 9.9 (T-13th)

2024 Projected Rotation: RHP Kyle Bradish, RHP Grayson Rodriguez, LHP John Means, RHP Dean Kremer, LHP Cole Irvin

When Kyle Gibson signed with the Cardinals, there went 192 of the 878.1 innings that the Orioles got from their starters in 2023.

Not many free agents can promise to replace those innings, but Giolito is one of them. And unlike, say, Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery, he should be within Baltimore's price range. Even for them, a two-year deal in the $15-20 million range should be doable.

The best case against the Orioles as a fit for Giolito might be that they're another team that should have its sights set on a surer ace, but I'm not sold that's the case. They have two budding aces in house in Bradish and Rodriguez, who combined to post a 2.45 ERA in the second half of this season.

But while it's not a terrible fit, Oriole Park at Camden Yards isn't the best fit for Giolito, either. The new left field wall has certainly suppressed right-handed power, but not so much for left-handed power.

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 7.1 (22nd)

2024 Projected Rotation: RHP Zac Gallen, RHP Merrill Kelly, RHP Brandon Pfaadt, RHP Ryne Nelson, LHP Tommy Henry

Here's another one that might sound familiar, as the Diamondbacks were also reportedly in on Giolito when the White Sox were shopping him this summer:

Not landing Giolito obviously didn't derail the Diamondbacks' season, and whether they even need him now is perhaps debatable. They only need a No. 3 behind Gallen and Kelly if one isn't sold on Pfaadt, who was one of the team's best starters in its run to the World Series.

Yet even if it wasn't necessarily in the No. 3 slot, there's surely a place for Giolito in Arizona's rotation. And for him, signing with the Diamondbacks would mean getting a chance to work with one of MLB's best pitching coaches in Brent Strom. That Chase Field is one of the majors' top home run suppressing parks would be a bonus.

With only a $10 million gap between what the Diamondbacks spent in 2023 and what they project to spend in 2024, there's some question of whether the finances work here. But the club's payroll is due for an increase in 2024, and it's not as if Giolito will cost a fortune.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.