Bowl Projections 2023: CFP Predictions Ahead of Saturday's Key Games
While the midweek portion of college football's rivalry week included zero marquee upsets, the results helped shape what to anticipate during bowl season in 2023.
Texas walloped Texas Tech to secure a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game, and Oregon toppled rival Oregon State to lock in a clash with Washington in the Pac-12 Championship Game. Most importantly, the wins allowed Texas and Oregon to stay in the College Football Playoff race.
Additionally, each of Missouri, Penn State, Ole Miss and Tulane picked up notable wins—although one of them is still on the wrong side of the New Year's Six cutline.
For complete bowl predictions, see B/R's latest projections heading into the Week 13 slate.
Tulane Rolls UTSA in Key AAC Tilt
Entering the weekend, three AAC programs—SMU, Tulane and UTSA—held an undefeated conference record.
And that number is trimmed to two.
Friday afternoon, Tulane capitalized on five takeaways and a pair of turnovers on downs to knock off UTSA 29-16. Michael Pratt passed for 125 yards and two touchdowns, while Makhi Hughes scampered for 166 yards and a score in a critical victory for the Green Wave.
Tulane, which improved to 11-1, has sealed a place in the AAC Championship Game. The opponent will be SMU if the Mustangs beat Navy or, if that doesn't happen, a rematch with UTSA.
Regardless of which team awaits next week, though, the Green Wave are a victory away from making a second straight New Year's Six bowl. Tulane is already the highest-ranked Group of Five program in the CFP rankings, so it's improbable that it would change with a conference title.
Missouri, Penn State Nearing NY6 Bids
Finish as a Top 11 team. That's the short version of how to seal a coveted place in a New Year's Six bowl.
Ninth-ranked Missouri steamrolled Arkansas 48-14 behind an impressive day from Cody Schrader and the defense. Schrader rushed for 217 yards and a touchdown, while Missouri held the Hogs to just 225 yards.
Short of a upsets in the Big Ten and Big 12 titles, 10-2 Missouri is now locked into an NY6 bowl.
Later on, Penn State took a valuable step toward an NY6 bid, outgaining Michigan State a stunning 586-53 in a 42-0 rout. Yes, you read that correctly: Penn State recorded 533 more yards than MSU.
It was a clutch victory for Penn State, which saw No. 12 Ole Miss defeat rival Mississippi State 17-7 on Thanksgiving night. Had the Nittany Lions lost, Ole Miss likely would have edged into the Top 11.
Oregon, Texas Stay in CFP Hunt
Missouri and Penn State are likely CFP-bound, but that's the best-case scenario for those programs.
On the other hand, Texas and Oregon are still seeking a trip to the College Football Playoff. Both entered Friday with a one-loss record, so their respective margins for error are the same: nonexistent.
Neither one dealt with any drama, though.
Texas dropped the hammer in a 57-7 blowout of Texas Tech, racking up 528 yards and holding the Red Raiders to just 198. Jaydon Blue paced the Longhorns with 121 yards on the ground, and Texas amassed 302 yards on the ground at a blistering 7.0 per carry.
Sixth-ranked Oregon cruised to a 31-7 win over rival Oregon State behind yet another excellent day from Bo Nix. The potential Heisman Trophy winner accounted for 398 yards and three touchdowns.
While a league championship would not guarantee a CFP trip, both Texas and Oregon are officially in a tremendous position.
CFP Projections
New Year's Six Games
Cotton Bowl (Dec. 29): Texas vs. Missouri
Peach Bowl (Dec. 30): Alabama vs. Tulane
Orange Bowl (Dec. 30): Louisville vs. Ohio State
Fiesta Bowl (Jan. 1): Penn State vs. Oregon
Relative to this section, Ohio State is the program to watch on Saturday. When the Buckeyes hit the field at Michigan, a matchup with Iowa in the Big Ten Championship Game is at stake. Ohio State is aiming to avoid a third consecutive loss in the series, too.
Alabama and Louisville also have rivalries games on the docket, taking on Auburn and Kentucky, respectively.
College Football Playoff
Rose Bowl (Jan. 1): Michigan (2) vs. Washington (3)
Sugar Bowl (Jan. 1): Georgia (1) vs. Florida State (4)
Michigan has home-field advantage on Saturday but will be without head coach Jim Harbaugh, who's serving the last of his three-game suspension. That showdown between U-M and OSU headlines the weekend, but these programs are all trying to stay undefeated.
The good news for everyone else? They're all heavy favorites. Washington hosts Washington State, Georgia plays at Georgia Tech and Florida State heads to Florida. None of those opponents are better than 6-5.